039
FXUS66 KEKA 022135
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
135 PM PST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Another round of light to locally moderate rain likely Tuesday.

* Warmer temperatures for the end of the week and through the
  weekend.

* Stronger storms with heavy rain possible starting around November
  10th.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...Light to moderate rainfall quickly moves through
Tuesday. Conditions will then remain mostly dry apart from low
chances for additional light rain or showers through the week and
weekend for the North Coast. There continues to be indications a
stretch of stronger Pacific storms capable of heavy rainfall and
strong winds will begin near the 10th.


&&

.DISCUSSION...The radar is already showing some light showers
drifting toward the coast Monday afternoon. The showers are moving
off of an approaching area of low pressure, which will continue
generally towards southern Mendocinco. An associated surface low
will initially have some stronger southerly winds on approach, but
the low will be quickly weakening. Some gusty south winds are
still likely, mainly over the ridges Monday night through late
Tuesday morning.

Rainfall will generally be light with this feature, particularly
north of the King Range where downsloping winds will enhance the
drying rain shadow. Of note, there will be instability around the low,
bringing a chance for thunderstorms along the Mendocino coast and
perhaps into Lake County. This convective activity will bring
oportunity for locally high rainfall amounts in the described
locations.

Some weak fronts will bring some chances for light rainfall for
mainly the Far North Coast through the week and weekend, but
chances for over 0.1 inch of rain is only up to 35% for Del Norte
county. High pressure will also be building in, allowing for
warmer temperatures late week and through the weekend.

Attention remains focused on the extended forecast when models and
ensemble clusters are coming into closer agreement on a shift to a
more active weather pattern. The threat start after the 9th, likely
near of after the 10th. For that period, there is a 40 to 50% chance
of exceeding two inches of rain over a two day period, and a 30 to
40% chance of exceeding three inches, respectively. Cluster analysis
shows 50% of the members with over 2 inches in a 24 hour period. The
possible atmospheric river storm system would be capable of strong
southerly winds as well. JJW


&&

.AVIATION...18Z UPDATE...Prefrontal conditions are expected through
the day today with light, variable winds with a slight south to
southeast component. Overcast clouds over 15k ft are present as a
weak marine layer exists along the coast. Large breaking waves
are increasing the exposure of coastal terminals to hazy, misty
conditions down to MVFR status. Tonight, winds will turn more
southerly for all areas as a cold front approaches NW CA. Expect
weak rainshowers and possible gusty breezes near storms with
downbursts possible. Winds near terminals by terrain could be
turbulent as well. MVFR is expected through tomorrow morning
between 12Z and 18Z. DS


&&

.MARINE...An approaching cold front will impact the area over the
next 24 hours. Southerly winds increase ahead of the front up to
moderate breezes. A narrow area north of Cape Mendocino will likely
have localized stronger winds up to fresh breezes. As this front
approaches, winds continue to increase overnight into the morning. A
brief period of near-gale gusts is possible from around 3AM to 6AM
or so for all waters as the frontal boundary passes overhead. A pre-
existing long period, NW swell is being recorded with waves of 9-
12ft at 18-20sec. This swell is expected to build through the day.
Short period seas will also build as winds increase. This NW swell
and the Southerly winds waves will cause a chaotic sea state. A
small craft advisory has been issued as a result for the outer
waters. Winds weaken slightly after the frontal passage, yet the NW
swells are likely to continue through the week. DS


&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...A very long period northwest swell is peaking
Monday afternoon, but the size and energy will be very slow to
subside. This continues to bring an extreme threat for sneaker
waves through the evening as winds remain light and other wave
groups remain limited. A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect
through this evening for this sneaker wave threat.

Sneaker waves are relatively large, unexpected waves with long
period between large sets. Up to 30 minutes may pass between waves.
Large, unexpected waves can sweep across the beach without warning,
sweeping people into the sea from rocks, jetties, and beaches. Avoid
jetties, steep beaches, and stay much farther back from the ocean!


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM PST this evening for
     CAZ101-103-104-109.

     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM PST Tuesday
     for CAZ110-111-114.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 9 PM PST Tuesday for
     PZZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 9 PM PST
     Tuesday for PZZ475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png