924
FXUS66 KEKA 032255
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
255 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Warmer temperatures with  a couple slight chances for light rain
  Wednesday and into the weekend.

* Stronger storm systems with heavy rain possible starting around or
  after November 10th.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...Conditions will trend warmer and drier through the week
and into the weekend. A couple fronts will clip the region Wednesday
and Sunday, bringing chances for light rain. The weather pattern may
trend more active mid to late next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Light to moderate rain showers quickly pull away
Tuesday evening with the fading low pressure area. Remnant moisture,
cloudcover, and patchy fog should largely prevent areas of frost
through Wednesday morning where the growing season continues
outside of Trinity County.

A series of strong NE Pacific cyclones will form and impact regions
north of CA in the Pacific Northwest and BC. These storm systems
will send a couple weak, clipping fronts Wednesday and
Saturday/Sunday. Light rainfall will be possible, but totals look to
be low. There is a higher chance of rain for the weekend system,
with 40-50% chance for over 0.3 inch of rain for N Humboldt to Del
Norte. This period will have to be watched for some enhanced
southerly winds however, looking at 925mb winds. There is
currently around 40% chance for gusts over 30 mph for the Del
Norte ridges and coast Sat- Sun.

The longer term forecast still holds a signal for a more active
pattern, with ensembles showing the potential for more impactful
storms capable of heavy rainfall and strong winds. Non linear error
growth through the farther extended timeframe leads to over-
amplification of the large Pacific storm systems in the global
models. This is evident in the growing variability in solutions,
with half the clusters depicting 1-2 inches of rainfall and the
other 50% dry through the 11th through 12th of November timeframe.
Chances for over an inch in 24 hours are 45 to 55% over that period.
Strong southerly winds would also be possible. JJW


&&

.AVIATION...Post frontal dynamics are driving the conditions at the
coastal terminals. Vicinity showers are becoming less frequent at
KCEC and KACV. Light northerlies have filled in behind the front
that passed through earlier today. Stable vertical profiles are
expected with clearing visibility improvements after the rain. VFR
through the TAF period at KCEC and KACV. Fog could be an issue
Wednesday morning as light winds and not much cloud cover expected,
according to GFS-MOS. KUKI has lingering conditions with regards to
occasional rain and lower visibility. Tempo groups are in place to
cover the random periods of showers, likely to become diminished by
03z. /EYS


&&

.MARINE...After an active morning with the passing front
and localize gusts out of the south-southeast at 23-25knots south of
Cape Mendocino. Winds were a bit lighter north of the cape but rain
was widespread along with hazardous seas. A Small Craft Advisory
remains hoisted through this evening in the northern and southern
outer waters, with the inner waters SC.Y conditions have eased.
Longer period swells are in decay with a more organized sea state
forecasted. Northerlies ramp up late Thursday evening as high
pressure fills in. /EYS


&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...A large, long period WNW swell is only very slowly
subsiding in size and energy. Caution is still highly warranted
around beaches with a risk for sneaker waves. An eastward
propagating, strong Aleutian low will deliver a second long period
WNW swell. The swell will arrive late Thursday with periods up to
20 seconds. The swell will peak at around 12 ft at 17 seconds
Friday, bringing another risk for sneaker waves.

Sneaker waves are a unique hazard, with up to 30 minutes between
waves. Large, unexpected waves can sweep across the beach without
warning, sweeping people into the sea from rocks, jetties, and
beaches. These sneaker waves can also move large objects such as
logs, crushing anyone caught underneath. Even ankle to knee deep
water can knock you down and drag you out when a sneaker wave hits.
Pay attention and stay above the high water line and any wet sand to
stay safe. If the ground is wet, waves have surged there recently.
Stay safe and never turn your back on the ocean!


&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...The positive tidal anomaly has increased
again, continuing bring tides higher than predicted. The increased
southerly winds brought tides 1.8 ft higher than forecast Tuesday
at the North Spit gauge. Tides are officially forecast to reach
7.4 to 7.5 ft at North Spit on the 7th through 10th of November.
The current range of tidal anomalies would bring tides up to and
over the advisory level of 8.8 ft, and minor coastal flooding
around Humboldt Bay. There will likely be periods of stronger
southerly winds through those days, bringing higher confidence to
at least minor coastal flooding, and perhaps some moderate.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for PZZ450-
     455.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ470-
     475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png