917
AXPZ20 KNHC 131535
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed May 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1400 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 1010 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia at 08N76W to 07N90W. The ITCZ extends from
07N90W to 1007 mb low pressure near 06.5N121W to beyond 05N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N
to 12N between 115W and 120W, from 00N to 04N between 124W and
136W, and from 07N to 15N between 125W and 136W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 78W and 90W,
from 03N to 07N between 92W and 96W, and from 06N to 10N between
98W and 106W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad ridge reaches across the waters W of 110W, including
offshore Baja California. Troughing extends from NW to SE across
the Gulf of California. This pattern supports moderate to locally
fresh winds offshore Baja California as well as across most of
the Gulf of California. Mainly gentle winds are elsewhere
offshore SW and southern Mexico, except strong to near gale-force
northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec due to a tight
pressure gradient over the area. Seas are 7-10 ft in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, and 5-6 ft in mixed long period SW and NW swells
elsewhere offshore, with 1-3 ft seas in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, strong to near gale-force northerly gap winds
will continue to pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through
early Thu due to a tight pressure gradient, then fresh to strong
pulses through early Fri. Seas will peak around 10 ft at times
with these peak winds. Fresh SW winds will pulse in the northern
Gulf of California tonight as a trough deepens. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh winds are expected across the offshore waters
of Baja California through Fri as ridging W of the area
strengthens. Winds will increase to fresh to strong well offshore
Baja California Norte this weekend, diminishing early next week.
Moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell will dominate the
offshore waters, building to 8-9 ft offshore Baja California
Norte Fri night, then to 8-15 ft on Sun, with seas of 8 ft or
greater spreading southward to offshore of Cabo San Lazaro by Sun
night. Seas will very gradually subside early next week.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE-E winds are offshore Nicaragua, including the
Gulf of Papagayo. Seas are 5-7 ft there. Seas are 4-6 ft
elsewhere N of the Equator, except 3-5 ft offshore Colombia,
with 5-7 ft in mixed southerly swell S of the Equator. Winds are
moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters, both N and
S of the monsoon trough. Some clusters of convection are
offshore Colombia and Panama near the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, fresh gap winds will pulse to locally strong
offshore of the Papagayo region through the rest of the week,
mainly at night into the early morning hours, with building seas
locally to rough during those times. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected
through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend,
with moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds in the Gulf of
Panama to the Azuero Peninsula at night. Showers and
thunderstorms offshore Colombia and Panama will gradually shift
westward and diminish across the area through Thu.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A dissipating cold front is analyzed from offshore central
California to near 29N136W. Otherwise, ridging prevails across
the waters N of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the
ridging and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ, including an
embedded 1007 mb surface low near 06.5N121W with moderate to
fresh N-NE trades W of 115W. Gentle to moderate winds are
elsewhere across the open waters, including S of the ITCZ. Seas
are 7-9 ft in southerly swell S of 02N between 100W and 120W.
Seas are 7-9 ft in mixed swells from roughly 10N to 27N to the W
of 130W, and from 06N to 18N between 120W and 130W. Active
convection is present near a low level trough along about 117W
and the ITCZ there, with additional clusters of convection as
described in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section above.

For the forecast, high pressure NW of the area will begin to
build across the region from the NW later today through Fri to
produce fresh trade winds N of the ITCZ and W of 115W, with seas
of 7-9 ft across that area. N winds are expected to strengthen
slightly to fresh to strong across the NE and N-central waters by
the weekend before possibly diminishing early next week, while
seas will build there as a result of the increasing winds. Rough
seas to around 8 ft in southerly swell will continue across the
far southwestern waters to near the Equator and W of 100W. Seas
of around 8 ft may continue across this same area through Thu
before new southerly swell reaches the equator Fri night into the
weekend, building seas back to around 8 ft.

$$
Lewitsky