386
AXPZ20 KNHC 180303
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Oct 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0235 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 07N78W
to a 1007 mb low pres near 13N97W to another 1007 mb low pres
near 10N117W and beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 07N to 16N and between 87W and 105W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad 1007 mb low pressure (EP91) south of Mexico remains
poorly organized, producing a large area of showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Moderate to fresh SW winds and moderate seas are
found in the offshore waters well south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. This disturbance has a low chance for tropical
development within the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, a 1030 mb high
pressure system centered near 37N143W extends southeastward to
the Revillagigedo Islands, supporting moderate or lighter winds
and moderate seas across the offshore waters of Baja California,
SW and southern Mexico. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are
found in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will
prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California through
early next week. Winds will freshen up and seas build to rough by
midweek. Moderate NW winds are forecast in the central and
southern Gulf of California Sat evening through Mon. At the same
time, fresh NW winds will pulse across the waters of Cabo
Corrientes. Looking ahead, strong to near gale-force N gap winds
and rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon
through late next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to affect
the nearshore and offshore waters of Central America. A weak
pressure gradient results in moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas across much of the basin.

For the forecast, moderate SW winds and moderate seas will occur
south of the monsoon trough into early next week, with gentle
winds and moderate seas prevailing to the north.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge positioned
near 37N143W and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustains in
moderate to locally fresh NE trade winds, mainly north of 10N
and west of 130W. Seas in these waters are 7-9 ft. Over the
eastern waters, moderate to locally fresh SW winds and moderate seas
are noted in association with Invest 91E. Meanwhile, moderate to
locally fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are occurring
west of 110W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate
seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE winds and rough
seas will occur north of the monsoon trough into this weekend as
high pressure prevails to the north. Winds will diminish slightly
for the second half of the weekend. A new NW swell will support
rough seas north of 25N tonight through Sun morning. Increasing
winds and building seas are expected over the northern waters
early next week as a weakening cold front moves southward along
the California coast.

$$
Delgado