998
AXPZ20 KNHC 262144
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Sep 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Polo is centered near 18.7N 112.5W at 26/2100 UTC,
moving northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
938 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with gusts to 150
kt. Peak seas are near 40 ft (12.5 m). Polo is a powerful
Category 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Numerous strong convection is within 120 nm of the center. Polo
is expected to make a gradual turn toward the north Sun, then
turn NE Mon. On the forecast track, Polo is expected to approach
the west coast of Baja California Sur Mon, move across the
peninsula Mon night, then approach NW mainland Mexico by early
Tue.

Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with
maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja California
Sur. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete
depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. Swells will
spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the
Baja California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal
flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Hurricane Odalys is centered near 20.5N 123.6W at 26/2100 UTC,
moving north at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 973
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt.
Peak seas are near 30 ft (9.5 m). Numerous moderate convection is
within 90 nm of the center. Odalys is now a Category 1 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, and rapid weakening
is forecast over the next several days. Odalys is anticipated to
become a post-tropical cyclone by early next week. A general
north to north-northeast motion is expected this weekend,
followed by a sharp turn to the south-southeast by early next
week.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
  NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
  www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both Polo and Odalys.

Gale Warning (Invest EP90): Showers and thunderstorms continue
to develop in association with an area of low pressure south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Additional development of the system is
anticipated due to conducive environmental conditions and a
tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or so. A
Gale Warning has been issued for the increasing winds associated
with this low later Sun into Mon offshore Oaxaca and Guerrero.
In addition, this system is likely to bring very heavy rainfall
over portions of Guatemala and Southern Mexico through tonight,
which may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.Please refer to local weather services as well as the
International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more
information. This system is forecast to continue moving slowly to
the west- northwest or northwest, staying parallel to the coast
of southern and southwestern Mexico. There is a high chance of
tropical formation within the next 48 hours.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N83W to 09N90W to 13N100W.
It then resumes S of Odalys from 12N127W to 13N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N E of 96W and from
01N to 09N W of 127W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Major Hurricane Polo, Hurricane Odalys, and Invest EP90, which
has prompted Gale warnings offshore southern Mexico.

The impacts from these features encompass much of the basin.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northwest to north winds are
offshore the Baja California Peninsula and light to gentle winds
elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Light to gentle
winds are in the Gulf of California. Moderate seas dominate the
offshore waters and the southern Gulf of California, with slight
seas in the central and northern gulf.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 17.9N 111.7W at 8 AM
PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 928 mb. Polo will move to 18.9N 112.8W this evening,
20.5N 113.7W Sun morning, 22.2N 114.0W Sun evening, 23.9N 113.7W
Mon morning, 25.6N 112.7W Mon evening, and weaken to a tropical
storm near 27.4N 110.8W Tue morning. Polo will weaken to a
tropical depression while moving inland over Chihuahua early Wed.
Hurricane Odalys is near 19.8N 123.7W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving
north at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kt with gusts to
110 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Odalys will
move to 20.7N 123.6W this evening, weaken to a tropical storm
near 21.9N 123.3W Sun morning, 22.6N 123.0W Sun evening, weaken
to a remnant low near 22.4N 122.6W Mon morning, 21.7N 122.3W Mon
evening, and 20.5N 122.0W Tue morning. Odalys will change little
in intensity as it moves west of the Revillagigedo Islands early
Wed. An area of low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
continues to become better organized as shower and thunderstorm
activity increases. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the
next day or two as the system continues to move slowly to the
west-northwest or northwest. This motion should keep it parallel
to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. A Gale Warning
has been issued for waters offshore Oaxaca and Guerrero starting
Sun afternoon in association with this system. There is a high
chance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48
hours.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh SE winds are offshore Guatemala as low
pressure, EP90, organizes SW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Otherwise, mainly gentle winds dominate the basin. Moderate seas
prevail, except slight seas are present in and near the Gulf of
Panama.

For the forecast, as low pressure organized to the west of the
area, SW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh southerly winds and
locally rough seas are possible well offshore Guatemala through
the weekend. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds expected to
prevail across the offshore waters well into next week along with
mostly moderate seas.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Major Hurricane Polo and Hurricane Odalys.

Outside of these hurricanes, high pressure is building southward
over the northwest portion of the area. The gradient between it
and Odalys has led to fresh northeast winds covering the waters
west of a line from about 30N120W to 15N140W. Seas with these
winds are 5 to 7 ft. Mostly gentle to moderate winds are
elsewhere, although a swath of fresh SW winds have developed from
05N to 10N W of 120W. The hurricanes have generated a broad area
of rough seas from 08N to 29N and east of about 137W.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 17.9N 111.7W at 8 AM
PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 928 mb. Polo will move to 18.9N 112.8W this evening,
20.5N 113.7W Sun morning, 22.2N 114.0W Sun evening, 23.9N 113.7W
Mon morning, 25.6N 112.7W Mon evening, and weaken to a tropical
storm near 27.4N 110.8W Tue morning. Polo will weaken to a
tropical depression while moving inland over Chihuahua early Wed.
Hurricane Odalys is near 19.8N 123.7W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving
north at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kt with gusts to
110 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Odalys will
move to 20.7N 123.6W this evening, weaken to a tropical storm
near 21.9N 123.3W Sun morning, 22.6N 123.0W Sun evening, weaken
to a remnant low near 22.4N 122.6W Mon morning, 21.7N 122.3W Mon
evening, and 20.5N 122.0W Tue morning. Odalys will change little
in intensity as it moves west of the Revillagigedo Islands early
Wed. An area of low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
continues to become better organized as shower and thunderstorm
activity increases. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the
next day or two as the system continues to move slowly to the
west-northwest or northwest. This motion should keep it parallel
to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. A Gale Warning
has been issued for waters offshore Oaxaca and Guerrero starting
Sun afternoon in association with this system. There is a high
chance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48
hours.

Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is expected to form
within the next day or two about 1000 miles to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development of the system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the early to middle
part of next week. The system is should move generally
northeastward. There is a low chance of tropical formation within
the next 48 hours and a high chance over the next 7 days.

$$
Konarik