397
AXPZ20 KNHC 012128
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Apr 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends westward from near the Panama-Colombia
border at 07N78W to 06N100W to 01N115W. The ITCZ extends from
01N115W to 02S120W, continuing west-southwestward of the
discussion waters. A second ITCZ is analyzed along 03.4S between
97W and 116W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to
03.4S between 95W and 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1030 mb high
near 33N137W to just south of the Revillagigedo Islands. This
feature is supporting fresh to locally strong winds west of 110W
and Baja California per recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Seas are
6 to locally 8 ft across these same waters. Gentle to moderate
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in old, mixed SW and NW swell dominate
the offshore waters of southwest and southern Mexico. The tail
end of a cold front extends from central Arizona to the far
northern Gulf of California with winds increasing to fresh to
strong north of the front and building seas, mainly north of
31N. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere in the Gulf, with
seas of 3 ft or less.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NW to N winds near the Baja
California coast will persist and expand westward through Wed
night, then diminish to moderate on Thu, locally fresh
nearshore. Winds in the northern and central Gulf of California
are expected to increase and reach fresh to strong this evening
through Wed evening, which could peak at near-gale force at the
northern Gulf late tonight into early Wed morning. Another round
of fresh to locally strong winds are possible in the Gulf of
California, central and southern portions, Sat night through late
Sun. A new set of NW swell producing rough to very rough seas
will propagate southward through the Baja California offshore
waters tonight through late Thu. Looking ahead, a surge of strong
to at least near gale-force northerly winds may develop in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun night into early next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Convergent surface winds are triggering scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms off the coast of Guatemala and El
Salvador. Localized moderate to fresh easterly winds are present
at the immediate Gulf of Papagayo, while moderate northerly
winds are evident near the Azuero Peninsula. Light to gentle
winds prevail for the remainder of the offshore waters. Seas
across all offshore waters range from 3 to 6 ft in a mix of SW
and NW swells, locally to 7 ft southwest of the Galapagos
Islands.

For the forecast, localized fresh to strong winds will pulse in
the immediate Gulf of Papagayo through Sat night, mainly at
night and in the early morning. Gentle to moderate northerly
winds with occasionally fresh speeds are expected at the Gulf of
Panama through Wed night. A mix of SW and NW swells will keep
moderate seas near the Galapagos Islands and off Ecuador through
late Thu.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A surface trough that was over the north-central waters has
dissipated in the last few hours. Meanwhile, a broad surface
ridge extends southeastward from a 1030 mb high near 33N137W to
just south of the Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle to moderate N to
ENE to ESE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are evident north of 22N
and west of 120W, except beginning to build to around 7 ft along
30N between 125W and 135W. A tighter gradient between the ridge
and the ITCZ is sustaining moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades and
6 to 9 ft seas in a mix of long- period northerly and southerly
swells from 03N to 22N and west of 120W. Winds are mainly
moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters, with 6 to
8 ft seas, except 4 to 6 ft east of 93W.

For the forecast, the high and ridge will not move much through
the next week days, maintaining moderate to fresh trades over the
same area and 7 to 10 ft seas, with similar winds north of 16N
between 115W and 125W. Seas will build to 7 to 10 ft in NW to N
swell over the north-central waters tonight through Thu. Little
change is expected elsewhere through Sat over the open Pacific
waters. Looking ahead, a set of large NW swell may moves
southeast of 30N140W later in the upcoming weekend, with seas of
at least 12 ft near 30N140W by early Sun.

$$
Lewitsky