463
AXPZ20 KNHC 071543
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Dec 7 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next gap wind event in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to begin on Mon as a cold front
moves over the Gulf of America and high pressure builds across
the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in the wake of
the front. Fresh to strong northerly winds will setup in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec early Mon, then increase to gale-force Mon evening.
Gale-force winds will then likely persist through at least Tue
morning. Rough seas, peaking around 12 or 13 ft, are expected
with this event Mon night into early Tue morning.

Of note: The monthly distribution of Tehuantepec events shows
that the largest number of gale force events occurs in December.
Storm-force events occur most often in January.

Please read the latest High Seas issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the SW Caribbean Sea to across
Panama and Costa Rica to the Pacific coast at 09N84W to 07N95W
to 12N109W to 09N121W. The ITCZ continues from 09N121W to beyond
08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 08N to 14N between 111W and 120W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 18N between 104W
and 116W, and from 07N to 10N between 122W and 134W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehunatepec. Please
see the Special Features section for more information.

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds with moderate
seas.  to the W of 109W, and light and variable winds E of 109W
offshore SW and southern Mexico per recent ASCAT scatterometer
data. Seas are mainly moderate across the offshore waters of
Mexico. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate northerly
winds prevail, mainly across the central part of the Gulf where
seas are slight.

For the forecast, occasionally fresh NW to N winds are expected
in the central Gulf of California tonight through Tue due to the
pressure gradient between a trough over NW Mexico and a ridge
offshore the Baja California peninsula. Looking ahead, the next
gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to begin on
Mon reaching minimal gale force. Please, see the Special Features
section for more details. Fresh N winds may develop near Cabo
Corrientes Tue night through Wed night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail N of 06N with moderate southerly
winds S of 06N per latest scatterometer data. Seas are mainly
moderate in mixed SW and NW swell, with exception of slight seas
nearshore, and in the lee of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, mainly gentle winds will prevail N of the
monsoon trough through the next several days, except increasing
and pulsing to moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Papagayo
beginning early Tue. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail S of
monsoon trough. Seas generated by a gap wind event in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec are expected to spread across the outer offshore
waters of El Salvador and Guatemala Tue and Tue night. Otherwise,
moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell are expected over the
regional waters through at least the middle of the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A high pressure system located N of area and the associated
ridge dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ and W of
110W. The most recent scatterometer data showed moderate to
locally fresh winds N of the ITCZ to about 24N and W of 120W,
while altimeter data showed seas of 6 to 8 ft over this region.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere including S of the
monsoon trough/ITCZ. Seas of 4 to 7 ft are noted across the
remainder of the open waters, dominated by long period NW swell.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the waters N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ
and W of 110W through at least early in the week supporting
moderate to locally fresh trade winds. Mainly gentle to moderate
winds are expected elsewhere, except locally fresh S of the
monsoon trough and W of 100W at times. Rough seas will persist in
the western waters through Mon. Moderate seas are expected
elsewhere over the eastern Pacific. Looking ahead, a new set of
long period NW swell is forecast to reach the NW part of the
forecast region by the middle of the week.

$$
GR