800
AXPZ20 KNHC 300319
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Oct 30 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The remnants of Vance are centered near 20.7N 107.7W at 30/0300
UTC, moving north-northeast at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with
gusts to 35 kt. Seas to 10 ft are expected in the area of highest
winds. Swells generated by Vance`s remnants will affect coastal
portions of southwestern and west- central Mexico, as well as the
southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula, during the
next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from
your local weather office for details.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 04N93W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 05N123W. A 1011 mb low is near
06N128W. Another 1011 mb low is analyzed near 09N138W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ, and from 05N 11N
and W of 121W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Tropical Depression Vance near the southern tip of Baja
California Sur.

Aside from Vance, fresh to moderate N to NE gap winds are
occurring over the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas 6-8 ft.
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with 5-7 ft over the
Pacific waters, 2-4 ft over the N and central Gulf of
California.

For the forecast, the remnants of Vance will dissipate Fri
morning. Fresh to locally strong N gap winds over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will continue through early next week and diminish by
Mon night. A developing extratropical cyclone should move into
the waters west of the Baja California peninsula and over the N
Gulf of California Sat night into Sun with fresh to strong SE to
SW winds. Fresh NW winds should occur over the Gulf of California
on Mon and Tue in the wake of the extratropical cyclone.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE to E gap winds are occurring over the Gulf of Papagayo
region. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 4-6
ft. Scattered moderate convection is also occurring from 03N-08N
east of 88W.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E gap winds over
the Gulf of Papagayo region should continue through Mon. Fresh N
winds over the Gulf of Panama should continue through tomorrow
before weakening on Sat. Large, long-period SW swell will reach
the equatorial waters tomorrow before diminishing on Sun.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1011 mb low is centered near 27N136W with a trough extending
southwestward to 18N140W. Winds north of the low are E fresh with
seas to 8 ft. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between weak
ridging north of our waters and lower pressure over the monsoon
trough is forcing only moderate or weaker trades across the
forecast waters. Large, long-period SW swell is reaching
northward across the equator to 04N between 108W-128W. Elsewhere
seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast, the low will become an extratropical cyclone
by tomorrow morning and then move slowly eastward. By Fri night,
fresh to strong S to SW winds will develop south of a warm front
and fresh to strong N to NE winds should occur north of a cold
front. The system should move over the offshore zones west of the
Baja California peninsula on Sun with winds and seas diminishing
by Sun night.

$$
ERA