882
AXPZ20 KNHC 150407
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jan 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Northerly winds funneling
through the Chivela Pass will continue to support gust to gale-
force NNE winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through Thu
night. Peak seas in the Tehuantepec region during this period
will range between 11-13 ft. Winds will quickly diminish below
gale-force early on Fri as return flow establishes across the
Gulf of Mexico.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 05N87W to 05N100W to
03N111W. The ITCZ continues from 03N111W to 06N127W and beyond
06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 12N
between 83W and 89W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please, refer to the Special Features section above for details
on an ongoing Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A weak pressure gradient in the region due to the presence of a
surface trough along western Mexico and a second trough just west
of the Baja California Peninsula continue to support light to
gentle winds across the Baja and SW Mexico offshore waters. Seas
in these two regions remain moderate in the 4-6 ft range and in
NW swell. Northerly winds associated with a surface trough over
the far western Gulf of Mexico continue to funnel through the
Chivela Pass and supporting gust to gale-force winds in the
Tehuantepec region where peak seas are 8-10 ft. Otherwise, high
pressure over the Great Basin of the United States is supporting
fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf of California, with
seas to 6 ft.

For the forecast, gust to gale-force NNE winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region will continue through Thu night. Winds will
quickly diminish below gale-force early on Fri as return flow
establishes across the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong winds in
the Gulf of California will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds
Wed evening, and then prevail mainly over the southern and
entrance of the Gulf through Sun night. Gentle to moderate NE
winds are forecast to develop across Baja California Sur Wed
morning as a surface trough moves just south of the area. Another
surface trough will develop near the entrance of the Gulf of
California on Fri while a strong ridge extends to Los Cabos,
which will result in moderate NNE winds along the Baja California
offshores through the weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong to near gale-force NE to E winds and seas to 8 ft are
ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate E winds associated with
this gap wind event extend to the outer offshore waters of
Guatemala and El Salvador where seas are 6 ft in mixed E and NW
swell. In the Gulf of Panama, winds are moderate to fresh from
the NNE and seas are 3-4 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight to
moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell are elsewhere between
Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of
Papagayo will continue through Sat, likely increasing to near
gale-force on Wed morning as high pressure ridging builds over
the Caribbean. Rough seas are expected with this gap wind event.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds from the Papagayo gap wind
event will continue to propagate across the outer offshore waters
of Guatemala and El Salvador through Wed night. Pulsing fresh N
winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to moderate speeds on
Thu and to light to gentle speeds over the weekend. Otherwise,
light to gentle southerly winds between Ecuador and The Galapagos
Islands will reach moderate speeds Sat night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A strong high pressure of 1033 mb located well N of area extends
a ridge across the forecast waters N of the ITCZ and W of 110W.
To the west of the Baja California offshore waters, a 1019 mb
low is analyzed near 27N129W with surface trough along the low.
Moderate to fresh winds and seas to 10 ft are noted with the
low/trough. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate and seas are
moderate.

For the forecast, the surface trough to the west of the Baja
California offshore waters will dissipate on Thu and then
surface ridging will dominate the subtropical waters through the
weekend. Northerly swell to the west of the surface trough will
gradually subside before decaying on Thu morning. Otherwise, a
surface trough is forecast to develop over tropical waters near
110W on Wed and then propagate westward enhancing winds to fresh
to locally strong speeds, and building seas to 10 ft through Sat
night.

$$
Ramos