137
AXPZ20 KNHC 202141
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jul 20 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Fausto: Fausto is centered near 14.2N 116.7W at
20/2100 UTC, moving northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with
gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are near 18 ft. Numerous moderate and
scattered strong convection is occurring from 10N-20N between
105W-120W. A decrease in forward speed and a motion toward the
northwest is expected to continue for the next day or two. A turn
back to the west-northwest is expected on Wednesday. Steady to
rapid strengthening is expected during the next couple of days,
and Fausto is forecast to become a hurricane later today or
tonight. Swells generated by Fausto are expected to reach the west
coast of the Baja California Peninsula on Wednesday, and persist for
a couple of days.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Fausto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Gale Warning: Post-tropical cyclone Elida is centered near
27N127W with a central pressure of 1003 mb, maximum winds around
40 kt. Both ASCAT scatterometers reported peak winds around
1730 UTC of 35-40 kt in all quadrants except to the south of the
center. A pair of altimeter passes around 1700 UTC shows a large
swath of 12 ft seas from 24N-29 between 126W-130W and peak seas
around 20 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from
28N-32N between 127W-130W. The system should continue moving
steadily toward the north-northwest while gradually diminishing.
Peak winds are anticipated to drop below gale-force by early
tomorrow morning. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W along the Panama coast
westward to 10N107W, where it breaks for Tropical Storm Fausto.
The monsoon trough begins again at 12N125W to beyond 09N140W.
Isolated moderate convection is occurring north of 03N east of
91W. Isolated moderate to strong convection is noted from
06N-10N between 131W-140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Fausto, centered about 650 NM southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California.

Winds are SE fresh to strong, seas 7-10 ft, and scattered
moderate convection is occurring in the offshore zone of the
Revillagigedo Islands due to the periphery of Tropical Storm
Fausto. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 5-6 ft
in SW swell over the remainder of the Pacific offshore waters
and 2-4 ft over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, NW winds should freshen with isolated strong
off Baja California Norte on Wed and Thu. Looking ahead, a broad
area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of Mexico
by midweek. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development of the system thereafter, and a tropical depression
could form while it moves westward to west-northwestward away
from the forecast waters.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds are NE fresh to strong over the Gulf of Papagayo region
with seas 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with
seas 4-5 ft in S swell. Isolated moderate convection is occurring
north of 03N east of 85W.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE to E winds will persist
across the Papagayo region through Fri. Elsewhere, quiescent
conditions are expected for the next several days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Fausto, centered about 650 NM southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California, and on a Gale Warning for Post-
tropical Cyclone Elida, centered about 610 NM miles west-
southwest of the coastal border of California and Mexico.

Fausto and Elida dominate conditions over the High Seas forecast
waters today. Away from these two systems, the only winds that
are fresh are south of the equator west of 100W. These SE winds
are accompanied by 8-9 ft seas. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or
weaker and seas are 6-7 ft in mixed seas.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Fausto is near 14.2N 116.7W at
2 PM PDT, and is moving northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 994 mb. Fausto will strengthen to a hurricane near
15.1N 117.9W Tue morning, move to 16.0N 119.4W Tue afternoon,
16.6N 120.8W Wed morning, 17.0N 122.4W Wed afternoon, 17.4N
124.5W Thu morning, and 17.7N 127.2W Thu afternoon. Fausto will
change little in intensity as it moves to the 18.5N 132.6W Fri
afternoon. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is
forecast to develop well south of Mexico by midweek.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of the
system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form while it
moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and
central portions of the eastern Pacific.

$$
Landsea