634
AXPZ20 KNHC 100250
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Dec 10 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between
high pressure over the eastern slopes of Mexico and lower
pressure within the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough is
supporting gale-force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The
area of high pressure will weaken late tonight, which will
loosen the pressure gradient and diminish winds below gale-force
by around sunrise. Very rough seas, peaking around 12 or 13 ft,
will start to subside later tonight as the winds gradually
diminish. Please read the latest High Seas issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08.5N83W to 09N100W to 1010 mb
low pressure near 11N118W to 10N130W. The ITCZ continues from
10N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 10N to 14N between 98W and 104W, from 07.5N to 21N
between 106W and 115.5W, from 07N to 14N between 115.5W and 122W,
and from 05N to 11N between 122W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehunatepec. Please
see the Special Features section for more information.

Aside from conditions in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a ridge
extends from high pressure located N of the area to across the
offshore forecast waters of Baja California. The pressure
gradient between this ridge and a trough over western Mexico is
supporting moderate to fresh winds over the Gulf of California.
Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in long period NW swell
are noted across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters,
with moderate seas also in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, gale-force northerly gap winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will diminish late tonight into early Wed, with
fresh to strong winds continuing though the end of the week.
Winds over Tehuantepec will diminish on Sat before strengthening
again on Sat night, possibly reaching gale-force again Sun night.
Moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf of California will gradually
diminish through Wed night. Fresh N winds may develop near Cabo
Corrientes tonight through Wed night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo, with light
to gentle winds elsewhere N of 06N. Gentle to locally moderate
southerly winds prevail S of 06N. Seas are mainly moderate in
mixed SW and NW swell, with exception of slight seas nearshore
from Colombia northward, while seas are moderate to locally rough
offshore Guatemala due to an ongoing gap wind event in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, mainly gentle winds will prevail N of the
monsoon trough over the next several days, except pulsing to
moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Papagayo, locally strong at
times. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail S of monsoon trough.
Moderate N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama starting
tonight. Seas across the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and
Guatemala, generated by a gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec, will subside later tonight. Otherwise, moderate
seas in mixed SW and NW swell are expected over the regional
waters through the week and into next weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure dominates the waters N of the ITCZ and monsoon
trough. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure
and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the
monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the
monsoon trough/ITCZ and west of 110W. Seas are in the 5-8 ft
range over these waters, highest S of 22N and W of 115W.
Moderate winds, and seas of 4 to 7 ft, prevail elsewhere over the
discussion waters.

For the forecast, little change to the synoptic pattern and
marine conditions are expected through the middle of the week,
with winds weakening somewhat later in the week as the pressure
gradient weakens. A new set of long period NW swell is forecast
to reach the NW part of the forecast region by Wed evening,
building seas to 8 to 9 ft over these waters before subsiding by
the end of the week. Looking ahead, the pressure gradient may
tighten again by the end of the weekend with trades just N of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ freshening into early next week.

$$
Lewitsky