638
AXPZ20 KNHC 102038
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Mar 10 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 04.5N77W to 00.5N83W to 01.5N93W to
01.5N104W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 02N105W to 02N127W to beyond
01N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
S of 03N between 85W and 96W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 04N to 05N between 92W and 105W and from 01N to 02.5N
between 123W and 127W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Broad low pressure shifting eastward across Baja California and
the Gulf of California this morning has moved inland and weakened
across NW Mexico, and is now analyzed as a 1017 mb low near
30N112W. Associated broad cyclonic wind flow across the area N
of 20N and E of 118W is becoming less defined. Northwest of the
area, a broad surface ridge prevails and extends southeastward to
the Revillagigedo Islands. The resultant weakening pressure
gradient between the ridge and the low is producing moderate to
locally fresh NW to N winds across the Baja near and offshore
waters, where seas are 5 to 7 ft in NW swell. In the Gulf of
California, light and variable winds prevail across the northern
Gulf, while recent satellite scatterometer data showed gentle to
moderate W to NW winds across the remainder of the Gulf, with
seas to 4 ft across southern portions. Farther south, the
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure across
interior Mexico is yielding fresh to strong northerly winds
within 150 nm of the Cabo Corrientes area, where seas are 6 to 8
ft. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail
elsewhere, including moderate N winds spilling across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, the aforementioned low will continue to shift
eastward and farther inland while dissipating through this
evening. A ridge will build towards Baja California Sur and Cabo
Corrientes tonight through Thu, while new NW swell will enter
the waters of Baja California Norte. Fresh to strong NW to N winds
are expected between Baja California Sur and Cabo Corrientes,
including Las Tres Marias, from late today through Wed evening.
Northerly winds will then freshen inside the Gulf of California
Wed afternoon through Thu morning before the ridge weakens
modestly across the area. Otherwise, a strong gap wind event is
forecast to begin across Tehuantepec on Thu morning, with winds
reaching gale- force late Thu afternoon, then diminishing below
gale- force by late Fri morning. Moderate or weaker winds are
forecast across all the Mexican offshores throughout the upcoming
weekend.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE to E gap winds and moderate seas to 7 ft prevail across
the Papagayo region, and extend downwind near 91W. Moderate N to
NE winds and moderate seas prevail across the Gulf of Panama and
downstream to 03.5N. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of
the equator. Cross-equatorial S-SW swell continues to spread
across regional waters, producing seas of 5 to 9 ft, and to 10 ft
south through southwest of the Galapagos.

For the forecast, fresh gap winds will continue to pulse to
strong at night across the Papagayo region through Fri night as
high pressure remains N of the area. Moderate N winds will also
pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Panama through Sat. Mainly light
to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through the forecast
period. Cross-equatorial S-SW swell will continue to build across
the regional waters through tonight, before subsiding Wednesday.
Another round of cross-equatorial SW swell is expected to move
into the regional waters over the upcoming weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1030 mb remains well NW of the region along
134W. An associated broad ridge covers the waters N of about 12N
and W of 107W. The related pressure gradient is sustaining fresh
NE to E winds from 08N to 21N between 112W and 140W. Moderate to
rough seas of 7 to 9 ft in mixed swell prevail with these winds.
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas in
mixed N and S swell.

For the forecast, the low pressure over Baja California and the
central Gulf of California has moved eastward and inland across
NW Mexico and will dissipate this evening. High pressure will
reorganize NW of Baja California later tonight, and extend a
ridge south and southeastward across the E Pacific subtropical
waters. New NW swell will move into the waters W of the Baja
California offshores to about 130W tonight through early Thu, and
subside Thu night. Otherwise, large S-SW cross- equatorial swell
will continue to propagate N and NE, producing rough seas as far
N as 20N through Wed, before subsiding from east to west Wed
night through Fri. Looking ahead, another round of cross-
equatorial SW swell is expected to move into the regional waters
mainly E of 120W over the upcoming weekend.

$$
Stripling