672
AXPZ20 KNHC 050308
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Apr 5 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends westward from the Panama-Colombia
border near 07N78W to 04N81W to 09N104W. The ITCZ continues from
09N104W to 01N133W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
within 120 NM of the ITCZ between 101W and 126W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1026 mb high centered north of the area near 33N130W extends
ridging through the waters offshore of Baja California, and a
surface trough has been analyzed over the west coast of Mexico.
Moderate to locally fresh NW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are
occurring through the Baja California waters and offshore of
southwestern Mexico as a result of these features. Locally strong
NW winds and rough seas near 8 ft are noted near Cabo San Lucas.
In the Gulf of California, gentle to locally moderate winds
prevail with slight seas. Otherwise, gentle winds and moderate
seas are noted offshore of southern Mexico.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NW winds will prevail
through the Baja California waters and offshore of southwestern
Mexico into next week. Pulsing fresh to strong NW winds are
slated to occur in the central and southern Gulf of California
Sat night into Mon as the pressure gradient strengthens between
ridging to the west and troughing over western Mexico. Looking
ahead, strong N winds will develop Sun night in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec before quickly strengthening to gale force, and gale
force winds and very rough seas will continue through at least
the middle of next week. Elsewhere, a long-period NW swell will
support rough seas across the Baja California waters early next
week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Prevailing low pressure over northwestern Colombia is supporting
fresh to strong E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo and accompanying
seas to 6 ft. Otherwise, mainly gentle winds and seas at 3 to 5
ft in mixed S and NW swell are noted over the remainder of the
offshore waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds are expected to pulse
in the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun morning as low pressure
prevails over northwestern Colombia. Locally fresh E winds will
extend through the offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala
through Sat morning. Winds in the Papagayo region will diminish
early next week, before restrengthening to strong speeds Tue
night into Wed morning. Elsewhere, a mix of SW and NW swells will
maintain moderate seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands
into next week. Otherwise, gentle to locally moderate winds are
expected across the remainder of the waters into next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

Broad surface ridging covers much of the eastern Pacific waters,
supporting moderate to fresh E to NE winds north of the ITCZ to
23N. Rough seas in E to NE swell prevail over this region.
Farther north, gentle winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail north
of 23N, as observed by SOFAR buoy data. Otherwise, gentle winds
and seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed NW and S are noted over the waters
south of the surface trough and ITCZ.

For the forecast, rough seas associated with a cold front moving
through the northern waters are slated to progress southeastward
this weekend, with rough seas expected north of 25N and west of
135W by Sat night, and north of 15N and west of 125W by late Sun
morning. Rough seas to 12 ft will be possible north of 20N and
west of 130W on Sun. Farther south, moderate to fresh trade winds
will prevail into next week north of the ITCZ to 25N. These
winds will help to maintain rough seas in this region. By early
next week, rough seas in mixed NW and E to NE swell will dominate
much of the open waters. Looking ahead, a long-period Southern
Hemisphere swell will promote rough seas south of 05N early next
week.

$$
ADAMS