705
AXPZ20 KNHC 240905
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Nov 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near 10N71W to 08.5N99W to
11.5N124W to 09N129W. The ITCZ continues from 09N129W to beyond
08.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is about the monsoon
trough from 05.5N to 09N between 80W and 120W, and from 07N to
14.5N W of 129W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure extending from Gulf of Mexico into the
northwestern Caribbean is weakening and shifting eastward
tonight, allowing the pressure gradient to the south to weaken
sufficiently so that northerly winds across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec continue to slowly diminish from recent days.
However, strong N gap winds to around 25 kt and peak seas of
9 ft continue there late tonight.

Elsewhere, a broad ridge, anchored by a weakening 1018 mb high
pressure centered near 29N127W, dominates the offshore waters of
Baja California and adjacent waters W of 105W. A weak and benign
cold front moving slowly eastward toward the Baja waters has
reached near 30N120W, with little change in winds. This pattern
is promoting gentle to locally moderate winds across the Baja
California offshore waters, where seas are 4 to 7 ft in NW swell
north of 20N. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in
mixed swell prevail elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters
to the south and southeast, except for 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of
California.

For the forecast, strong N winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec
will gradually diminish today. Elsewhere, the weak surface ridge
will remain in control of the weather pattern across the regional
waters W of 105W through the middle of next week, supporting
gentle to locally moderate NW to N winds. The high pressure will
shift NE through Mon then become stationary as a weak cold front
dissipates today across the Baja Norte offshore waters. Strong
to near gale-force N winds will return to Tehuantepec Mon night
through Wed morning before diminishing. Moderate S swell will
move through the area waters from Cabo Corrientes eastward Mon
night through Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle southwest winds prevail across the offshore waters of
Colombia and Ecuador, where seas are 4 to 5 ft in mixed swell.
Elsewhere, light to gentle generally onshore winds prevail S of
10N. Scattered showers are noted in satellite imagery from 05.5N
to 09N between 80W and 92W. Mostly gentle offshore winds remain
across the waters N of 10N, except fresh NE winds streaming
offshore of the Papagayo area extending offshore to near 88W,
where seas are 5 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, offshore gap winds N of 10N will continue
through today, with fresh to strong NE to E winds across the
Papagayo region, as high pressure persists across the NW
Caribbean and northern Central America. Elsewhere, gentle to
locally moderate winds will prevail through Wed. Cross equatorial
SW swell is expected to move into the regional waters Sun night,
increasing seas to 8 ft between Ecuador, Colombia and the
Galapagos Islands, and to 7 ft elsewhere, early Mon through Wed.
Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are expected to develop between
the Galapagos Islands and Colombia Wed through early Thu.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak surface ridge dominates most of the waters N of 10N and W
of 105W, producing light to gentle anticyclonic flow north of
20N. A weak and slow moving cold front extends from 30N120W to
23N138W. High pressure of 1018 mb has reorganized behind the
front, and is centered near 29N127W. Seas behind this front are
6 to 7 ft in NW swell. A second front has become stationary
across the NW waters, along 30N to the west of 133W. Fresh SW
winds prevail south of this front to 27.5N and west of 135W,
where seas are 8 ft. Scattered moderate thunderstorms are
occurring along the front W of 138W. Moderate NE trade winds
prevail south of the ridge between the ITCZ and 18N, and W of
115W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft in NW swell. Moderate southerly
monsoonal winds and seas prevail to the south of 10N. Scattered
moderate convection is noted in satellite imagery near the ITCZ,
from 07N to 14.5N W of 129W, supported by an upper level trough
in the deep tropics, just to the W of 140W.

For the forecast, the high pressure will drift NE through Mon
then become stationary, as the weak front moves slowly eastward
into the Baja Norte waters and dissipates today. NW swell
accompanying the front will subside to 7 ft or less today. The
second front across the NW waters along 30N will meander W of
130W for the next few days, while low pressure forms along the
front just NW of the area waters. This will maintain moderate to
fresh SW winds and seas around 8 ft across these NW waters
through late Tue. To the south, moderate to locally fresh trade
winds will continue south of 18N, with moderate seas through Thu.
However, cross equatorial S to SW swell will move north of the
equator Sun night and raise seas to 7 to 9 ft across the waters S
of 18N and E of 125W Mon through early Wed.

$$
Stripling