Tropical Weather Discussion
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240
AXPZ20 KNHC 050404
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Oct 5 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Priscilla is centered near 15.6N 106.7W at
05/0300 UTC, moving northwest at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with
gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are 19 ft near the center of the storm.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 13N to 20N between
104W and 111W. Scattered moderate to strong convection in spiral
bands are elsewhere from 10N to 21N between 99W and 113W. On the
forecast track, the center of Priscilla is expected to move offshore
of and parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico through early
next week. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days,
and Priscilla is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday night
or Monday. Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will reach portions of
the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula by Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Tropical Storm Octave is centered near 15.4N 124.1W at 05/0300
UTC, moving north-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with
gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are near 21 ft. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is observed from 13N to 17N between 122W and
126W. The tropical storm is expected to turn northward tonight
or Sunday morning and then eastward in the next day or so. Some
slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so.

Please read the latest NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Octave and Priscilla NHC Forecasts/Advisories and Public
Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N91W to 13N100W,
then resumes SW of Octave from 12N128W to 10N140W. Aside from
the convection associated with Octave and Priscilla, scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 15N
between 79W and 95W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Priscilla.

The SW Mexican offshore waters from Jalisco to Guerrero are
being affected by Tropical Storm Priscilla. Farther north, the
pressure gradient between both Tropical Storms Priscilla and
Octave, and a broad ridge extending eastward to the Baja
California Norte offshores is supporting moderate to fresh NW
winds and moderate seas to 7 ft in NW swell N of Cabo San Lucas.
Light to gentle winds are elsewhere in Tehuantepec and the Gulf
of California where seas are mainly slight, except moderate in
Tehuantepec S of 15N.

For the forecast, Priscilla will move to 16.0N 106.8W Sun
morning, 16.6N 107.1W Sun evening, strengthen to a hurricane near
17.4N 107.8W Mon morning, 18.4N 108.8W Mon evening, 19.3N 110.0W
Tue morning, and 20.2N 111.4W Tue evening. Priscilla will change
little in intensity as it moves near 22.3N 114.1W late Wed.
Elsewhere, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California this weekend supporting
moderate to fresh NW to N winds N of Cabo San Lucas.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form off
the southern coast of Mexico by the middle of next week. Gradual
development of this system is likely thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form during the middle to latter part of next
week while moving west-northwestward to northwestward, near or
parallel to the coast. This system has a medium change of
tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered heavy showers and tstms persist across the offshore
waters of Central America with scatterometer data showing fresh
to strong winds in the areas of strongest convection. Away from
the convection and N of the monsoon trough, winds are light to
gentle. South of the monsoon, winds are mainly moderate from the
S and SW and seas moderate to 6 ft in SW swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected
south of the monsoon trough into mid-week. Southerly swell will
continue to propagate across the region through Tue night. Looking
ahead, winds may increase to fresh speeds across the offshore
waters of Guatemala and El Salvador as a low pressure develops
along the monsoon Sun and remain nearly stationary before
shifting westward to the Tehuantepec region Tue night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Octave, and Tropical Storm Priscilla.

Outside of the Tropical Storms, high pressure dominates the
remainder of the area N of 20N W of 120W supporting moderate to
locally fresh winds. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds
are south of the monsoon trough between 90W and 130W.

For the forecast, Priscilla will move to 16.0N 106.8W Sun morning,
16.6N 107.1W Sun evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.4N
107.8W Mon morning, 18.4N 108.8W Mon evening, 19.3N 110.0W Tue
morning, and 20.2N 111.4W Tue evening. Priscilla will change
little in intensity as it moves near 22.3N 114.1W late Wed.

Octave will move to 15.8N 124.0W Sun morning, 16.2N 123.2W
Sun evening, 16.2N 122.3W Mon morning, 16.1N 121.1W Mon evening,
15.9N 120.0W Tue morning, and 15.5N 118.8W Tue evening. Octave
will weaken to a tropical depression near 15.6N 116.4W late Wed.

$$
Ramos