318
AXPZ20 KNHC 132127
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed May 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N77W to 08N91W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N91W to 07N117W, then resumes W of a surface
trough from 06N126W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 78W
and 85W, from 07N to 10N between 98W and 107W, from 01N to 05N
between 124W and 136W, and from 06N to 10N between 118W and 136W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N between
86W and 97W, and from 02N to 10N between 115W and 121W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad ridge reaches across the waters W of 110W, including
offshore Baja California. Troughing extends from NW to SE across
mainland NW Mexico just inland from the eastern Gulf of
California. This pattern supports mainly moderate winds offshore
Baja California and in the central to southern Gulf of
California. A plume of strong to near gale-force winds is in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec as measured by an earlier ASCAT scatterometer
pass where seas are 6-9 ft. Mainly gentle winds prevail across
the remainder of the waters, along with 5-6 ft seas in mixed
long period SW and NW swells elsewhere offshore, except 1-3 ft
seas in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, strong to near gale-force northerly gap winds
will continue to pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through
early Fri due to a tight pressure gradient. Seas will peak around
10 ft at times with these peak winds. Fresh SW winds will pulse
in the northern Gulf of California tonight as a trough briefly
deepens, with similar conditions possible Sun night. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh winds are expected across the offshore waters
of Baja California through Fri as ridging W of the area
strengthens. Winds will increase to fresh to strong well offshore
Baja California Norte this weekend, diminishing early next week.
Moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell will dominate the
offshore waters, building to 8-9 ft offshore Baja California
Norte Fri night, then to 8-15 ft on Sun, with seas of 8 ft or
greater spreading southward to offshore of Cabo San Lazaro by Sun
night. Seas will very gradually subside early next week.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE-E winds are offshore Nicaragua, including the Gulf of
Papagayo. Seas are 5-7 ft there. Seas are 4-6 ft elsewhere N of
the Equator, except 3-5 ft offshore Colombia, with 5-7 ft in
mixed southerly swell S of the Equator. Winds are moderate or
weaker across the remainder of the waters, both N and S of the
monsoon trough. Some clusters of convection are offshore Colombia
and Panama near the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, fresh gap winds will pulse to locally strong
offshore of the Papagayo region through the rest of the week,
mainly at night into the early morning hours, with building seas
locally to rough during those times. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected
through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend,
with moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds in the Gulf of
Panama to the Azuero Peninsula at night. Showers and
thunderstorms offshore Colombia and Panama will gradually shift
westward and diminish across the area through Thu.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1030 mb high pressure just N of the area near 36N139.5W extends a
ridge southeastward and dominates the waters N of the ITCZ. The
pressure gradient between the ridging and lower pressure
associated with the ITCZ, including an embedded surface trough
from 14N117W to 05N123W, supports moderate to fresh NE-E trades
across most of the waters N of the ITCZ and W of 117W. Gentle to
moderate winds are elsewhere across the open waters, including S
of the ITCZ. Seas are 7-9 ft in southerly swell S of 02N between
100W and 120W. Seas are 7-9 ft in mixed swells from roughly 10N
to 27N to the W of 129W, and from 08N to 17N between 120W and
130W. Active convection is present near portions of the ITCZ as
described above.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will continue to
build across the region tonight through Fri to support continued
fresh trade winds N of the ITCZ and W of 115W, with seas of 7-9
ft across that area. N winds are expected to strengthen slightly
to fresh to strong across the NE and N-central waters by the
weekend before possibly diminishing early next week, while seas
will build there as a result of the increasing winds. Seas may be
12 ft or greater N of 26N and W of 128W. Rough seas to around 8
ft in southerly swell will continue across the far southwestern
waters to near the Equator and W of 100W. Seas of around 8 ft may
continue across this same area through Thu before new southerly
swell reaches the equator Fri night into the weekend, building
seas back to around 8 ft.

$$
Lewitsky