702
AXPZ20 KNHC 061542
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Oct 6 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Priscilla is centered near 17.5N 107.4W at 06/1500
UTC, moving north-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 973 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with
gusts to 90 kt. A prominent band of convection extends up to 270
nm to the northwest of the center. Moderate convection is also
noted within 120 nm to the southeast of the center. Seas are
probably as high as 30 ft near the center of the hurricane, with
seas 12 ft or greater covering an area roughly from 12N to 20N
between 100W and 110W. Priscilla will continue to intensify over
warm waters as it moves between Socorro Island and Cabo San Lucas
through Tue night, but then will gradually diminish as it moves
over cooler waters off Baja California Sur through mid week,
before eventually becoming a remnant low off Punta Eugenia by
late Fri.

Outer bands from Priscilla will continue to bring heavy
rain to portions of southwestern Mexico today. Across coastal
portions of Michoacn and Colima, additional rainfall amounts of 1
to 2 inches are expected.  From Tuesday into Wednesday, 2-4 inches
(with local amounts up to 6 inches) are expected in southern
portions of Baja California Sur as outer bands of Priscilla reach
that area. This rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding,
especially in areas of higher terrain.  Moisture from Priscilla
should bring heavy rainfall potential over the Southwestern U.S.
late this week into this weekend.

Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico, and will reach
portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula
today.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.

Tropical Storm Octave is centered near 16.3N 121.6W at 06/1500
UTC, moving east at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65
kt. Peak seas are near 18 ft. Modest convection is noted within
90 nm in the northeast quadrant of the center. A turn toward the
east- southeast is expected later today, continuing into
Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the northeast and an
acceleration by Thursday. A steady weakening trend is expected to
continue through midweek.

Please read the latest NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Octave and Priscilla NHC Forecasts/Advisories and Public
Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 12N96W, then resumes
SW of Octave from 12N125W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is evident from 10N to 12N between 90W and 98W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Hurricane Priscilla.

The SW Mexican offshore waters from Jalisco to western Guerrero
are being affected by Hurricane Priscilla. Heavy rainfall
associated with Priscilla will impact coastal sections of
southwestern Mexico through tonight, which could result in flash
flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain. Farther north,
the pressure gradient between both hurricanes Priscilla and
Tropical Storm Octave, and a broad ridge extending SE to near
120W is supporting moderate NW winds and moderate seas in NW
swell off Baja California. Light to gentle winds and slight seas
are elsewhere in the Gulf of California. In the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, a developing low pressure to the east is supporting
gentle to moderate W winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast, Priscilla will move to 18.3N 108.3W this evening, 19.3N 109.5W
Tue morning, 20.2N 110.9W Tue evening, 21.2N 112.3W Wed morning,
22.3N 113.5W Wed evening, and 23.4N 114.6W Thu morning. Priscilla
is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm about 150 nm W-NW of
Cabo San Lazaro by late Thu, then weaken further to a remnant
low off Punta Eugenia by late Fri. Farther south, strong winds
and rough seas associated with the remnant low of Octave will
impact the waters south of Socorro Island Wed into Thu.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form off
the southern coast of Mexico by midweek. Gradual development of
this system is likely thereafter, and a tropical depression could
form during the latter part of the week while moving slowly
west- northwestward, near or parallel to the coast of Mexico.
This system has a medium change of tropical cyclone formation
through 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist across the offshore
waters of northern Central America. Winds and seas could be
higher near thunderstorms. North of the monsoon trough, light to
gentle winds and moderate seas are noted, except moderate S to
SW winds in the Nicaragua offshore waters due to a developing low
pressure. Mainly moderate southerly winds and moderate seas
prevail S of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the weather pattern
across most of the region this week under a weak pressure gradient.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected south of the monsoon
trough while light to gentle winds will prevail to the N of it.
Southerly swell will continue to propagate across the region bringing
moderate seas in the 5 to 7 ft range.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Hurricane Priscilla and Tropical Storm Octave.

Outside of Octave and Priscilla, a surface ridge dominates the
waters north of 20N and west of 120W. Mainly moderate winds and
moderate seas are observed under the influence of this system.

For the forecast, Octave will move to 16.1N 120.6W this evening, 15.7N 119.5W Tue
morning, 15.5N 118.3W Tue evening, 15.6N 116.6W Wed morning,
16.5N 114.2W Wed evening, and weaken to a tropical depression
near 17.6N 111.8W Thu morning. Octave will dissipate early Fri
south . Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are forecast
elsewhere this week.

$$
Christensen