582
AXPZ20 KNHC 160905
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Nov 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0855 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 07N104W to 08N125W.
The ITCZ stretches from 08N125W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 05N to 13N and east of
105W, and also from 07N to 10N and west of 122W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weakening cold front extends from the southwest United States
to beyond 23N117W. A tight pressure gradient in the northern Gulf
of California support fresh to locally near gale-force southerly
winds as shown in a recent scatterometer satellite pass. In the
offshore waters of Baja California behind the front, moderate to
locally fresh SW winds and rough seas prevail, while light to
locally moderate winds and rough seas to 10 ft are prevalent
ahead of the front. Elsewhere, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are
evident.

For the forecast, the weakening cold front will slowly drift
eastward across Baja California and the Gulf of California today,
bringing mainly moderate winds and seas to 10 ft in NW swell to
the waters off Baja California Norte. The fresh to locally near
gale-force SW gap winds across the northern Gulf of California
will diminish this morning to fresh. Looking ahead, another frontal
boundary will bring fresh NW winds and rough seas to the Baja
California offshore waters late Mon into midweek. Winds may pulse
to strong in the northern Gulf of California late Mon into Tue.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure gradient continues across the offshore waters of
Central America and Colombia, sustaining moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas. Strong showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring in the nearshore and offshore waters
from Costa Rica to Colombia.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin will
support moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas
through early next week. Winds will freshen up by midweek in the
Gulf of Papagayo, while moderate to locally fresh southerly
winds and moderate seas are expected south of 05N.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends from SW United States to 17N129W, while a
surface trough extends from the low pressure off southern
California to 25N129W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
indicate that moderate to fresh winds are occurring behind the
cold front, with the strongest winds noted near the southern
extent of the surface trough. A long-period, decaying NW swell
sustain seas of 8-10 ft over much of the basin north of 10N and
west of 110W. Meanwhile over the eastern waters, an elongated
area of low pressure persists along the monsoon trough between
90W and 105W. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are flowing into
this area, sustaining seas of 6-8 ft seas southward to the
Equator, mixing with NW swell. In the remainder of the basin,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are present.

For the forecast, a weakening cold front extending from the SW
United States to the western waters will continue to move
eastward and gradually dissipate over the next day or so. The
large NW swell following the front will gradually subside as it
moves into the tropical Pacific and mixes with shorter-period
wind waves generated by moderate to fresh trade winds. Another
front is forecast to move into the waters west of Baja
California Norte on Mon, followed by large NW swell north of 25N
and east of 135W. Looking ahead, a building ridge over northern
waters will support fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas
in the trade waters west of 120W midweek into late next week.

$$
Delgado