341
AXPZ20 KNHC 262049
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Nov 26 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will move across
the Gulf of America through late Thu. The pressure gradient
between strong high pressure building in the wake of the front
and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will support fresh
to strong gap winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Tehuantepec
today into tonight. These winds will increase to gale force by
early Thu. A plume of fresh to strong N to NE gap winds and seas
of 8 to 10 ft will reach into Pacific waters up to 480 nm
downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late Thu. Winds and seas
will diminish Fri and Sat as the high pressure north of the area
shifts eastward and the pressure gradient loosens. Please refer
to the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC and at website
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N77.5W to 09N112W to 06N124W to
08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
observed from 06N to 13N between 108W and 129W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 09N to 11.5N between 132W
and 136W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a
developing Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail over the central and northern
Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds extend from the
entrance of the Gulf to near Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle
winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range west of
the Baja California peninsula extending southward to the
Revillagigedo Islands and eastward to the waters off Cabo
Corrientes. Seas of 3-6 ft prevail elsewhere, including in the
Gulf of California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will increase to gale force by early Thu morning
through Fri morning leading to rough seas. Fresh to strong winds
will then persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec into early Sat
before diminishing. Farther north, moderate to fresh winds,
in the central and northern Gulf of California will diminish
by Thu evening. A weak cold front or trough will move into the
waters off northern Baja California, possibly supporting moderate
to fresh winds near the entrance to the Gulf of California to
Cabo San Lucas to the Revillagigedo Islands Sun and Sun night.
No significant swell events are forecast through the upcoming
weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE winds are over the Papagayo region, with
moderate to fresh winds extending downstream to near 09.5N88W.
Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough.
Gentle to locally moderate winds are found south of the monsoon
trough. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range in mixed SW and NW swells.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds will pulse over and
downstream of the Papagayo region the remainder of the week and
into the weekend, locally strong at times through Sat. Moderate
or lighter winds are forecast elsewhere through the remainder of
the week and into the weekend. No significant swells are
forecast through Sun, however seas will build slightly in the
Papagayo region due to the fresh to strong winds, and offshore
Guatemala to locally rough through Fri due to a developing gale
force gap wind event NW of the area in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak cold front is analyzed over the far NW waters with little
impact. Otherwise, the pressure gradient between ridging north
of 20N and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is
supporting moderate to fresh winds north of the ITCZ to near 20N
and west of 130W, locally strong near 10N131W. The trade winds
are contributing to 7-10 ft combined seas from 04N to 18N
between 103W and 140W, assisted by a component of longer-period
NW swell. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas in a mix
of swell are noted elsewhere. Very active convection is near the
monsoon trough in central portions as described above aided at
the mid-to-upper level transporting moisture well to the
northeast toward the SW United States and NW Mexico.

Fresh trade winds and 7-10 ft seas in the trade wind belt will
gradually decrease through the end of the week as the high
pressure north of the area weakens. A new set of NW swell with
rough seas may arrive by the end of the week and into next
weekend north of 25N. Moderate winds and seas will persist
elsewhere. Looking ahead, a much more significant set of NW
swell may arrive to the NW waters by the end of the weekend and
into early next week.

$$
Lewitsky