385
AXPZ20 KNHC 020241
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Oct 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Rachel is centered near 19.5N 109.9W at 02/0300 UTC,
moving west-northwest at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 950 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with
gusts to 130 kt. Peak seas are near 36 ft (11 M). Numerous
moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm of center.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere
from 10N to 20N between 105W and 120W. Rachel is moving slowly
toward the west northwest, and this motion is expected during the
next day or so. Thereafter, a more westward track is expected with
the forward speed gradually increasing through the remainder of
the forecast period. Rachel is forecast to intensify for the next
12 hours or so before starting a weakening trend. Swells
generated by Rachel will affect the coast of west- central Mexico
and the Baja California Peninsula through the end of the week.
These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 16N95W, then resumes
near 16N113W to 14N130W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 16N E of 103W,
and from 00N to 10N W of 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Rachel.

Outside of the areas impacted by Hurricane Rachel, moderate to
fresh winds, and rough seas, prevail over the open waters off
Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas,
are over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel is near 19.5N 109.9W at 8 PM PDT,
and is moving west-northwest at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds are
105 kt with gusts to 130 kt, and the minimum central pressure is
950 mb. Rachel will move to 19.5N 110.4W Fri morning, 19.5N
111.2W Fri evening, 19.6N 112.1W Sat morning, 19.8N 113.1W Sat
evening, 19.9N 114.0W Sun morning, and 20.0N 115.0W Sun evening.
Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to near 20.2N
117.8W late Mon. Seas generated by Rachel will continue to
propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California,
south of Punta Eugenia, on Sat. Rough seas will persist over the
southern Gulf of California, including the entrance to the Gulf.
Winds and seas south of the Tehuantepec region will diminish
early on Fri.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the
region.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region will
maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along
with mostly moderate seas through the period. Winds and seas may
increase across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador
by Mon as an area of low pressure could develop late this
weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of
Mexico.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Rachel and the remnants of Nineteen-E.

Outside of Hurricane Rachel, the pressure gradient between high
pressure north of the area and lower pressure within the monsoon
trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds N of the monsoon
trough and W of 115W. Fresh to strong winds are south of
Hurricane Rachel, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere from 10N
to 16N between 90W and 120W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Rough seas cover the waters N
of 05N between 90W and 120W. Moderate to locally rough winds
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 19.5N 110.4W Fri
morning, 19.5N 111.2W Fri evening, 19.6N 112.1W Sat morning,
19.8N 113.1W Sat evening, 19.9N 114.0W Sun morning, and 20.0N
115.0W Sun evening. Rachel will change little in intensity as it
moves to near 20.2N 117.8W late Mon. The area of fresh to strong
westerly winds S of Rachel will persist over the next 48 hours.
Seas generated by Rachel will propagate across the forecast
waters, covering roughly the area from 10N to 25N between 100W
and 120W over the next couple of days.

$$
AL