815
AXPZ20 KNHC 271049 CCA
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion...Correction
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Sep 27 2026

Corrected Remainder of Area section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Polo is centered near 21.9N 123.4W, or about 260
nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico at 27/0900 UTC, moving
north at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt.
Satellite imagery indicates a faint eye feature. The imagery
shows numerous strong convection within 90 nm in the E
semicircle, 120 nm in the SW quadrant and 180 nm in the NW
quadrant. Peak seas are near 39 ft (12 M). A turn toward the
north is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the
northeast on Monday. On the forecast track, Polo is expected to
approach the west coast of Baja California Sur on Mon, move
across the peninsula Mon night and then approach northwestern
mainland Mexico by early Tue. Additional weakening is expected
during the next few days, but Polo is forecast to remain a
hurricane when it approaches Baja California Sur on Mon.
Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches
with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja
California Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening
flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and Baja California Sur
during the next couple of days. These swells will spread northward
along the coast of the Baja California Peninsula through the
remainder of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

Hurricane Odalys is centered near 21.9N 123.4W, or about 750 nm
west of the southern tip of Baja California at 27/0900 UTC,
moving north at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt.
Peak seas are to near 24 ft (7 m). Odalys`s overall convective
structure has degenerated into an irregularly shaped central
dense overcast. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to
strong convection within 210 nm in the NE quadrant, 30 nm in
the SE quadrant, 60 nm in the SE quadrant and 150 nm in the
NW quadrant. Odalys will maintain its present motion through
this evening, followed by a sharp turn to the south- southeast
by early next week. Rapid weakening is forecast over the next
few days, and Odalys is anticipated to become a post-tropical
cyclone by Mon.

Newly formed Tropical Depression Eighteen-E is centered near
12.2N 99.1W, or about 285 nm south of Acapulco, Mexico at
27/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30
kt with gusts to 40 kt. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate
to strong convection from 11N to between 96W and 102W. Tropical
Depression Eighteen-E is forecast to move parallel to and
offshore of the coast of Mexico. Some gradual strengthening is
forecast during the next few days, and the depression could
become a tropical storm by tonight.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
  NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
  for more details on Polo, Odalys and Tropical Depression
  Eighteen-E.

A broad area of low pressure located about 1000 nm to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is becoming organized.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely
to form during the early to middle part of next week. The system
should move generally northeastward, and remain well east- southeast
of the Hawaiian Islands.  This system has a medium chance of
tropical formation within the next 48 hours. Please refer to the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia to across
the southwestern Caribbean Sea and to across central Panama and
to 08N82W  to 06N90W and to 12N96W. It continues to the west
of Tropical Depression Eighteen-E at 12N101W to 14N107W. It
resumes south of Odalys at 17N124W and to 11N130W to low
pressure near 11N140W 1008 mb. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is seen from 07N to 14N west of 136W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 08N to 11N
between 94W-97W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Major Hurricane Polo, Hurricane Odalys, and on newly formed
Tropical Depression Eighteen-E.

The impacts from these features encompass much of the basin.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northwest to north winds are
offshore the Baja California Peninsula and light to gentle winds
elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Light to gentle
winds are in the Gulf of California per latest scatterometer
data. Moderate seas remain over the offshore waters and the
southern Gulf of California, with slight
seas in the central and northern gulf sections.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 20.3N 113.6W, or about
260 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico at 2 AM PDT, and is
moving north-northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105
kt with gusts to 130 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 952
mb. Polo will move to near 21.6N 114.0W this afternoon, to near
23.4N 114.0W late tonight, to 25.1N 113.1W Mon afternoon, to near
26.8N 111.6W late Mon night, weaken to a tropical storm near
28.9N 109.3W Tue afternoon, and move inland and weaken to a
tropical depression near 31.3N 106.8W late Tue night and
dissipate early Thu. Hurricane Odalys is near 21.9N 123.4W, or
about 750 nm west of the southern tip of Baja California at 2 AM
PDT, and is moving north at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 65
kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 985
mb. Odalys will weaken to a tropical storm near 22.4N 123.2W this
afternoon, become post-tropical and move to near 22.6N 122.9W
Mon morning, to near 22.0N 122.6W Mon afternoon, weaken to a
remnant low near 21.0N 122.4W Tue morning, move to near 19.9N
122.2W Tue afternoon, to near 19.1N 122.1W Wed morning and
dissipate early on Thu. Newly formed Tropical Depression
Eighteen-E is near 12.2N 99.1W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west-
northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts
to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Eighteen-E
will move to near 12.7N 99.6W this afternoon, strengthen to a
tropical storm near 13.2N 100.8W late tonight with maximum
sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, move to near 13.8N 102.2W Mon
afternoon, to near 14.7N 104.1W late Mon night, strengthen to a
hurricane near 15.7N 105.9W Tue afternoon with maximum sustained
winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, and move to near 16.9N 107.7W late Tue
night Wed morning. Eighteen-E will move to near 18.7N 109.6W late
Wed night with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. The
forecast waters will be impacted by very hazardous conditions,
for the most part, during the forecast period.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds are offshore Guatemala
newly formed Tropical Depression Eighteen-E located about 285 nm
south of Acapulco, Mexico continues to organize. Seas are 7 to 10 ft
in southwest swell over the western part of the Guatemala offshore
waters. Otherwise, mainly gentle winds dominate the basin.  Moderate
seas prevail, except slight seas are present in and near the Gulf of
Panama.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Eighteen-E will continue to
pull away from the offshore waters going into the early part of the
week allowing for fresh southeast to south winds over the western
portion of the Guatemala offshore waters to diminish, however, west
to northwest swell will linger over those waters through the next
few days. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds expected to prevail
across the offshore waters well into the upcoming week along with
mostly moderate seas.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Major Hurricane Polo and on Hurricane Odalys.

Away from the tropical cyclones, the gradient between high pressure
over the northwest portion of the area and Odalys has led to fresh
northeast winds covering the waters west of a line from about
30N120W to 20N131W to 11N140W. Seas with these winds are 7 to 10 ft
in long-period east to southeast swell.  Mostly gentle to moderate
winds are elsewhere, although a swath of fresh southwest winds have
developed from 05N to 10N and west of about 120W. The tropical
cyclones have generated a broad area of rough seas from 08N to 29N
and east of about 137W.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 20.3N 113.6W, or
about 260 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico at 2 AM PDT, and is
moving north-northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt
with gusts to 130 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 952 mb.
Polo will move to near 21.6N 114.0W this afternoon, to near 23.4N
114.0W late tonight, to 25.1N 113.1W Mon afternoon, to near 26.8N
111.6W late Mon night, weaken to a tropical storm near 28.9N 109.3W
Tue afternoon, and move inland and weaken to a tropical depression
near 31.3N 106.8W late Tue night and dissipate early Thu. Hurricane
Odalys is near 21.9N 123.4W, or about 750 nm west of the southern
tip of Baja California at 2 AM PDT, and is moving north at 7 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the
minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Odalys will weaken to a tropical
storm near 22.4N 123.2W this afternoon, become post-tropical and
move to near 22.6N 122.9W Mon morning, to near 22.0N 122.6W Mon
afternoon, weaken to a remnant low near 21.0N 122.4W Tue morning,
move to near 19.9N 122.2W Tue afternoon, to near 19.1N 122.1W Wed
morning and dissipate early on Thu.

The Special Features broad area of low pressure may evolve
into a tropical cyclone that moves east-norheastward across the
western part of the area during the upcoming week. If this scenario
transpires, then winds and seas will be impacted significantly
across that portion of the area. Please keep up with the latest
Tropical Weather Outlooks for updates on formation probabilities of
this next possible system.

$$
Aguirre