347
AXPZ20 KNHC 202153
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jun 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Mexican State of Chiapas and Central America Heavy Rainfall:
The broad circulation associated with the Remnants of Alberto is
expected to produce additional heavy rainfall amounts across the
Pacific coast of far southern Mexico, southern Guatemala, El
Salvador,western Honduras and western Nicaragua. This heavy
rainfall can cause life- threatening conditions that include
flooding and mudslides. Expect the heavy rainfall to continue
through Fri evening. Please refer to your local meteorological
and emergency management office bulletins for more detailed
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends WSW from offshore of the Oaxaca State
in Mexico near 12N98W to 11N119W to 08N176W. The ITCZ extends
from 08N127W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 05N to 16N between 80W and 102W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between
107W and 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
an ongoing heavy rainfall event.

Fresh to strong SW to W monsoonal winds and 8 to 11 ft seas are
noted across the offshore waters of Oaxaca and Chiapas States in
southern Mexico. Meanwhile, fresh to strong W to NW winds and
seas at 6 to 8 ft are found offshore of Cabo San Lucas and Cabo
Corrientes. Across the rest of the Baja California offshore
waters, moderate to fresh winds prevail with seas 6 to 7 ft.
Gentle with locally moderate southerly winds and seas of 2 to 4
ft dominate the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W winds, rough to very
rough seas, and scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms
will continue to impact the southern Mexico offshore waters through
Fri, primarily off Chiapas and Oaxaca. Dangerous surf is also
anticipated along the coastal areas of this region until Fri
evening. To the north, fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas
are expected near Baja California Sur, including the waters near
Cabo San Lucas and off Cabo Corrientes through Fri morning due to
tighter pressure gradient. Conditions across the Mexico offshore
waters will improve by the weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on an
ongoing heavy rainfall event.

Fresh to strong SW to W monsoonal winds and 8 to 11 ft seas
continue across the offshore waters of Guatemala, El Salvador
and Costa Rica. Gentle to moderate SW winds along with seas at 5
to 7 ft within S swell are noted across the rest of the Central
America and Colombia offshore waters. Farther south, gentle to
moderate southerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate southerly
swell exist near the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W winds, rough to very
rough seas and numerous heavy showers and strong thunderstorms
will persist across the offshore waters of Guatemala, El Salvador
and northwestern Nicaragua through Fri. Dangerous surf is also
anticipated along the coastal areas of this region until Fri
evening. Meanwhile, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are anticipated off Costa Rica and Panama into the weekend.
Farther south, moderate to rough seas in moderate southerly swell
will continue near the Galapagos Islands and offshore of Ecuador
into early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward to the Baja
California offshore waters from a 1029 mb high pressure centered
NW of the area near 35N150W. The associated gradient is
supporting gentle to moderate N to NE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft
north of ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 120W. East of 115W
and north of 08N, fresh to strong SW to NW monsoonal winds and
seas at 8 to 11 ft are present. South of the ITCZ and monsoon
trough, gentle to moderate SE to S winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in
moderate southerly swell dominate.

For the forecast, monsoonal winds and seas east of 115W and
north of 06N will gradually decrease through Fri night into Sat.
Otherwise, little overall changes are expected through early next
week.

$$
AReinhart