289
AXPZ20 KNHC 100346
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Oct 10 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Priscilla is centered near 25.1N 115.0W at
10/0300 UTC, moving north-northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45
kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are around 16 ft. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within about 90 nm of the center. A
turn torward the north and decrease in forward speed is
expected later tonight into Friday. Weakening is anticipated and
Priscilla is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone Fri or
Fri night. Flash flooding is likely in portions of central
Arizona, with scattered areas of flash flooding expected across
the remainder of Arizona, southern Utah, southwest Colorado, and
far northwest New Mexico.

Tropical Storm Raymond is centered near 16.7N 102.6W at 10/0300
UTC, moving west-northwest at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with
gusts to 50 kt. Raymond should gradually turn NW Fri night into
Sat, keeping the storm parallel and offshore mainland Mexico, and
steering Raymond to near southern Baja California Sur Sat night
into Sun. Modest strengthening is forecast through Fri, with
weakening expected thereafter. Heavy rainfall associated with
Raymond will bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas
of higher terrain. Across coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima, and
Jalisco, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected.
Moisture from Raymond will also bring the potential for
additional heavy rainfall over portions of the Southwest U.S.
early next week. Swells generated by the storm are expected to
spread westward along the southwestern coast of Mexico through
Fri and reach southern Baja California Sur on Sat. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Priscilla, Octave and Tropical Depression Seventeen-E NHC
Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N87W to 16N99W, then resumes
SW of Priscilla near 15N120W to 10N135W. The ITCZ continues from
10N135W to beyond 09N140W. Aside from the convection associated
with the tropical cyclones, scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 10N between 80W and 90W, and from 11N to 14N
between 95W and 105W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storms Priscilla and Raymond for more details.

The offshore waters of Mexico continue to be impacted by the tropical
cyclone activity described above. Dangerous marine conditions are
present in the waters offshore Baja California Sur, including the
entrance to the Gulf of California, and the waters near the
Revillagigedo Islands due to both Priscilla, Raymond and the
remnant low of Octave centered about 100 nm southeast of Socorro
Island. Farther south, roughly between Acapulco and Cabo
Corrientes, there is a large area of numerous showers and
thunderstorms associated with Tropical Storm Raymond. Outside
the direct influence of the tropical cyclones, moderate to
locally fresh northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are
noted elsewhere across the Baja California offshore waters. Light
and variable winds and slight seas dominate the N and central
Gulf of California.

For the forecast, aside from the tropical cyclone activity
described above in the Special Features section, the main
forecast issue will be strong gap winds that will pulse across
the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri night through Sat night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate to locally
fresh southerly winds south of the monsoon trough. A long period
southerly swell is producing seas of 5 to 7 ft across these
waters. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the weather
pattern across most of the region for the remainder of this week
and into the weekend under a weak pressure gradient. Combined
seas may reach 8 ft off off Central America Sat and Sun primarily
due to SW swell.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storms Priscilla and Raymond for more details.

Outside of the influence of the tropical cyclones, a weak high
pressure dominates the remainder of the eastern Pacific forecast
waters. A weak 1016 mb low pressure system is analyzed near
22N138W, but no significant weather, winds or seas are associated
with this feature. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and
moderate to locally rough seas are occurring south of the monsoon
trough. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast, high pressure should build across the waters
north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ in the wake of the tropical
cyclones during the weekend into early next week. The rough seas
in southerly swells over the southern waters will gradually decay
into the upcoming weekend. A new set of northerly swell,
bringing rough seas is forecast to propagate north of 25N and
west of 125W by the end of the weekend into early next week.
Farther south, SW swell will support combined seas to 8 ft south
of the monsoon trough between 100W and 110W early next week.

$$
Konarik