135
AXPZ20 KNHC 280405
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Sep 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Polo is centered near 12.9N 99.8W, or about
150 nm southwest of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico at 28/0300 UTC,
moving north at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
951 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to
135 kt. Peak seas are near 39 ft (12 M). The satellite depict
its cloud pattern as a little asymmetric, with the coldest cloud
tops currently located over the western half of the circulation.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm of the
center in the NE quadrant, 30 nm of the center in the SE
quadrant, 90 nm of the center in the SW quadrant and 180 nm of
the center in the NW quadrant. Polo should maintain its
current motion for next several hours, followed by a turn toward
the northeast on Monday. On the forecast track, Polo is expected
to approach the west coast of Baja California Sur on Mon, move
across the peninsula Monday night and then approach northwestern
mainland Mexico by earl on Tue.  Polo is forecast to be at or
near major hurricane strength when it reaches Baja California Sur
on Mon, and it is expected to be a hurricane when it makes
landfall in mainland Mexico early on Tue. Polo is expected to
produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of
12 inches across portions of Baja California Sur. Rainfall
totals of 4 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 expected across
portions of Sonora. This rainfall may produce life-threatening
flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and Baja California Sur
during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

Tropical Storm Rachel is centered near 12.9N 99.8W, or about 240
nm south of Acapulco, Mexico at 28/0300 UTC, moving west at 6
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are
to 15 ft (4.5 m). The last few visible satellite images showed
that Rachel has a broad center. Numerous strong convection is
within 120 nm of the center in the S semicircle. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 06N to
15N between 98W and 106W. Rachel is forecast to attain a faster
west-northwestward motion during the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of Rachel is expected to remain well
offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. However, tropical storm
conditions are possible along the coast of Mexico within the
tropical storm watch area by Tue. Swells generated by Rachel
will begin affecting portions of southern coast of Mexico during
the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A Gale Warning remains in effect for the remnant low of Odalys
located near 23N114W with a pressure of 1000 mb. Gale winds of
30 to 40 kt with the low are forecast to dimnish to just below
gale-force in a few hours. Seas are 10 to 17 ft with the gale
winds. They will begin to gradually starting late tonight into
Mon morning. Satellite imagery shows that the low is devoid of
deep convection. A slow northeastward motion is expected through
tonight, followed by a turn to the south, or south-southwest on
Mon, then dissipate by around midweek.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
  NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at
  www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Polo and Rachel.

A broad area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands is producing numerous strong convection from
12N to 15N between 134W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection
if from 05N to 12N west of 134W. Recent satellite-derived wind
data indicate that the system is becoming better organized.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during
the next day or two. The system should move generally
northeastward and remain well east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands. This system has a high chance of tropical formation
within the next 48 hours and a high chance over the next week.
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to
across the southwestern Caribbean Sea and to across southern
Nicaragua, then to 11N85W and to 12N92W, where it pauses.
IT resumes to the southwest of Polo at 15N120W and continues
to 13N123W to Invest EP91 NEAR 12N137W and to beyond 11N140W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen
from 07N to 12N between 120W-131W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Major Hurricane Polo and on Tropical Storm Rachel.

The impacts from these systems will be over a good majority of
the forecast waters. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northwest to
north winds are offshore the Baja California Peninsula and light
to gentle winds elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Light
to gentle winds are in the Gulf of California. Moderate seas
remain over the offshore waters and the southern Gulf of
California, with slight seas in the central and northern gulf
sections.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to near 24.1N
113.7W Mon morning, to near 25.9N 112.4W Mon evening, then move
inland and weaken to a tropical storm over northwest Mexico Tue
morning, weaken to a tropical depression Tue evening, and
dissipate Wed morning. Tropical Storm Rachel is near 12.9N 99.8W
at 8 PM PDT, and is moving west at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure
is 1003 mb. Rachel will move to near 13.3N 100.9W Mon morning, to
near 14.2N 102.6W Mon evening, to near 15.2N 104.3W Tue morning,
then strengthen to a hurricane with maximum sustained winds 70
kt gusts 85 kt near 16.4N 106.0W Tue evening. Rachel is forecast
to move to near 17.5N 107.2W Wed morning and to near 18.4N 108.2W
Wed evening. Rachel is forecast to move to near 19.1N 109.0W
late Thu with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt.
Hazardous marine conditions will be impacting the majority of the
Mexican offshore waters through the forecast period.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds are offshore Guatemala.
Seas are 6 to 9 ft in southwest swell over the western part of
the Guatemala offshore waters. Otherwise, a rather light gradient
is maintaining mostly gentle winds across these waters. Moderate
seas prevail, except slight seas are present in and near the
Gulf of Panama.

For the forecast, the light pressure gradient will maintain
moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with
mostly moderate seas through the period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Major Hurricane Polo, Tropical Storm Rachel, on  Gale Warning
for Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys, and on a broad area low
pressure in the far western waters that has potential for
tropical cyclone formation this week.

Away from the tropical cyclones, the gradient between high pressure
over the northwest portion of the area and Odalys has led to fresh
northeast winds covering the waters west of a line from about
30N120W to 19N132W to the area of the broad low pressure in the
western part of the domain. Mostly gentle to moderate winds are
elsewhere. The tropical cyclones have generated a broad area of
rough seas N of 09N, with moderate seas to the south.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to near
24.1N 113.7W Mon morning, to near 25.9N 112.4W Mon evening, then
move inland and weaken to a tropical storm over northwest Mexico
Tue morning, weaken to a tropical depression Tue evening, and
dissipate Wed morning. Tropical Storm Rachel will reach
near 13.3N 100.9W Mon morning, to near 14.2N 102.6W Mon evening,
to near 15.2N 104.3W Tue morning, then strengthen to a hurricane
with maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt near 16.4N 106.0W
Tue evening. Rachel is forecast to move to near 17.5N 107.2W Wed
morning and to near 18.4N 108.2W Wed evening. Rachel is forecast
to move to near 19.1N 109.0W late Thu with maximum sustained
winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt.

A broad area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands is producing numerous strong convection from
12N to 15N between 134W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection
if from 05N to 12N west of 134W. Recent satellite-derived wind
data indicate that the system is becoming better organized.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during
the next day or two. The system should move generally
northeastward and remain well east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands. This system has a high chance of tropical formation
within the next 48 hours and a high chance over the next week.

$$
Aguirre