499
AXPZ20 KNHC 172102
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Nov 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 12N95W to a 1011 mb
low pres near 08N105W to 08N107W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N107W
to 08N120W and beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is present from 06N to 10N west of 125W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from a 1012 mb low pressure located near
29N116W to 21N126W. Moderate to fresh NW winds are N of 27N W of
the front to about 118W based on scatterometer data. Moderate NW
winds are seen near Cabo San Lucas and downwind to about 21N.
Gentle to moderate NW to N winds are noted elsewhere across the
offshore waters of Baja California, and also in the Gulf of
California. Light to gentle winds dominate the remainder of the
Mexican offshore waters. Moderate seas in NW swell are impacting
these waters, including the entrance to the Gulf of California.
Slight seas are seen in the N and central parts of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the above mentioned cold front will continue to
move across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California this
evening and tonight while dissipating. Another cold front will
reach the same area tonight into Tue followed by fresh NW winds
and rough seas in long period NW swell. Winds are forecast to
increase again to fresh to strong speeds across the northern
Gulf of California ahead of the front tonight into Tue, with seas
building to 6 or 7 ft. The cold front will move SE reaching Punta
Eugenia by Tue evening while gradually weakening. It is forecast
to dissipate between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro by Wed.
Rough seas in the wake of the front will propagate across the
outer offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through Wed night into
Thu.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of gentle
to moderate NE winds across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to
near 87W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are N of the monsoon
trough with gentle to moderate S to SW winds to the south of it.
Slight to moderate seas dominate the offshore waters.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the weather pattern
across the region as a weak pressure gradient prevails. This will
support moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas through
at least midweek. In the Gulf of Papagayo, gentle to moderate NE
to E winds and slight to moderate seas are expected through Sat,
with pulsing winds to 20 kt at night. Seas are forecast to build to 5
or 6 ft with these winds.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

As previously mentioned, a cold front extends from a 1012 mb low
pressure located near 29N116W to 21N126W. A second cold front
stretches from 30N123W to 26N130W to 27N140W followed by fresh
to locally strong winds and rough seas in NW swell. Elsewhere N
of the ITCZ and W of 110W high pressure prevails, with a 1028 mb
center located near 32N138W. In the eastern waters, a weak low
pressure of 1011 mb is along the monsoon trough near 08N105W.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are present.

For the forecast, the cold front over the northern waters will
move southeastward over the next few days, bringing fresh to
strong NW to N winds and rough seas in additional pulses of long
period NW swell. This swell event will propagate across much of
the waters N of 25N by tonight, and N of 23N and E of 130W by
Tue night. High pressure in the wake of the front will support
fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas in the trade wind
zone toward midweek. At that time, the high pressure center is
forecast to be located over the NW corner of the forecast area.
Looking ahead, another cold front is expected to reach the NW
waters Wed night into Thu followed by fresh NW to N winds and
rough seas. Then, a low pressure system is expected to develop
along the frontal boundary offshore California. The low pressure
is forecast to move southward entering the NE forecast waters by
Fri night. Strong winds and rough to very rough seas could be
associated with this low.

$$
GR