637
AXPZ20 KNHC 172115
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Jun 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Erick is centered near 12.9N 94.4W at 17/2100
UTC, moving northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong
convection is N of 07N between 88W-99W. Seas to 16 ft are
expected within 60 nm of center in the N semicircle of the
system. On the forecast track, the center of Erick
is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday
night and move inland or be near the coast on Thursday. Erick is
forecast to be near or at major hurricane strength when it
approaches the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night and
Thursday. Dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast
in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves. Swells generated by Erick are
expected to begin affecting the coast of southern Mexico in a day
or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Erick NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The southern portion of a tropical wave extends from the
Caribbean Sea southward along 85W, moving westward at around 10
kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within
180 nm of the wave axis and N of 06N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 10N88W. It resumes
southwest of T.S. Erick near a 1010 mb low near 09N100W to
13N111W to 10N123W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
09N140W. Aside from the convection related to T.S. Erick,
scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the monsoon
trough and E of 104W, and along the ITCZ and W of 126W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details on current
conditions of Tropical Storm Erick.

Elsewhere, the persistent remnant low of Dalila is analyzed with
a pressure of 1009 mb near 20N114W. Latest ASCAT pass
highlighted gentle winds near the low. High pressure is present
west of Baja California with moderate or weaker winds. Moderate
to fresh southerly winds are over the Gulf of California along
with slight seas, except for moderate seas over the southern part
of the Gulf. Moderate seas prevail across the offshore waters.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Erick will move to 13.3N 95.2W
Wed morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 14.2N 96.4W Wed
afternoon, 15.4N 97.5W Thu morning, inland to 16.9N 99.0W Thu
afternoon, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 18.3N
100.8W Fri morning, and dissipate Fri afternoon. Elsewhere, high
pressure well northwest of the area will support pulsing moderate
to fresh northwest to north winds across the Baja California
Norte offshore waters through the rest of the week. Rough
northwest to north swell will build over the Baja waters through
the rest of the week. The swell will be reinforced by a new set
of northwest to north starting Fri. Moderate to fresh southerly
winds will continue across the Gulf of California today. Winds
will be mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere during the period.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please read the Special Features section for details on current
conditions of Tropical Storm Erick.

Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere from offshore
Colombia northward, with moderate seas. Moderate to fresh
southerly winds are offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands,
with moderate to rough seas in southerly swell.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Erick will move to 13.3N 95.2W
Wed morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 14.2N 96.4W Wed
afternoon, 15.4N 97.5W Thu morning, inland to 16.9N 99.0W Thu
afternoon, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 18.3N
100.8W Fri morning, and dissipate Fri afternoon. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh winds will remain offshore Ecuador to the
Galapagos Islands through the next few days. Winds will be
moderate or weaker offshore Colombia northward, except pulse to
mostly fresh speeds in the Papagayo region starting Thu morning.
Meanwhile, moderate seas off Ecuador will prevails through the
rest of the week. Moderate seas will be mainly offshore Colombia
northward through Wed, except higher near T.S. Erick, subsiding
afterward.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on
current conditions of Tropical Storm Erick.

Broad surface ridging extend from a high well northwest of the
discussion area to across the open waters north of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ and west of the remnants of Dalila centered near
20N114W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the open
waters, both north and south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ,
locally fresh south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Seas are
mainly moderate across the open waters in mixed southerly and
northerly swells.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will sink
slightly southward through the week. Moderate to fresh northeast
to east winds over the northwest part of the area will expand
in coverage through the end of the week. A slight increase in
seas is expected across the northern waters east of 130W through
Thu as new north to northeast well moves into the regional
waters, spreading west-southwestward to 140W by the end of the
week.

$$
ERA