331
AXPZ20 KNHC 212119
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Nov 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A ridge extending along the
eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico, and
across the western Gulf of Mexico supports strong N winds of 40
kt across the Tehuantepec region. Peak seas are currently near 15
ft based on an altimeter pass. Gale force winds of 35 to 40 kt
and rough to very rough seas are forecast to persist through Sat
morning. Large seas generated from this strong gap wind event
will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft
or greater reaching as far south as 08N by Fri morning. Marine
interests transiting across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sat
morning should be aware of this gap wind event, and take the
necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions over the
affected waters.

For more details, please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to a 1012 mb low pressure
located near 15N102W to 12N115W. The ITCZ continues from 12N115W
to 09N130W to beyond 09N140W. A cluster of moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 97W and 100W.
Elsewhere, convection is limited at this time.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please.
see the Special Features section for more details.

A ridge, anchored by a 1022 mb high pressure located near 29N123W,
dominates the offshore waters of Baja California. This pattern
is promoting light to gentle winds across the Baja California
offshore waters where seas are 5 to 8 ft in NW swell, highest N
of Punta Eugenia. Elsewhere, the tight pressure gradient between
the ridge and a trough in northwestern Mexico is supporting fresh
to locally strong NW winds in the central Gulf of California.
Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the central and southern part of the
Gulf while seas of 2 to 4 ft area noted over the northern Gulf.
Light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft in mixed swell
dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. Scatterometer
data show a weak cyclonic circulation within about 120 nm SW of
the coast of Guerrero associated with a 1012 mb weak low pressure
center located there.

For the forecast, gale force winds and rough to very rough seas
will persist in the Tehuantepec area through Sat morning. High
pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across
the waters W of the Baja California peninsula through the
upcoming weekend supporting gentle to moderate NW winds. The NW
swell affecting the waters N of Punta Eugenia this afternoon
will reach the outer offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro by Fri
morning. The high pressure will weaken some by Sun as another
cold front enters the northern forecast waters.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent satellite derived wind data indicate gentle to moderate
southerly winds across the offshore waters of southern Colombia
and Ecuador where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. These winds
are likely enhanced by convection previously noted down there.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are
observed.

For the forecast, seas generated by gale force winds in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec will impact the far western Guatemala offshore
waters through Fri night. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are
predicted in the Papagayo region Fri night through Mon as high
pressure builds across the NW Caribbean and northern Central
America. These winds are forecast to increase to strong speeds on
Sun. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will
prevail. Looking ahead, seas may increase to 6 to 8 ft in long
period SW swell across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos
Islands early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1022 mb high pressure located near 29N123W dominates most of
the N waters N of 15N and W of 110W. A light to gentle anticyclonic
flow is seen under the influence of this system. A weakening
frontal boundary is over the far NW waters while a cold front is
just behind it crossing near 31N140W. Fresh to strong SW winds
are ahead of the front covering the forecast waters N of 28N and
W of 130W. Seas are 9 to 11 ft in NW swell within these winds.
This swell event is propagating across much of the waters N of
25N W of 120W with seas of 8 to 9 ft. Gentle to moderate NE to E
prevail between 10N and 20N W of 110W.

For the forecast, the high pressure will move SW and weaken some
ahead of a cold front moving across N waters. The front will
reach from 30N133W to 26N140W by early Fri afternoon, and from
30N125W to 25N140W by early Sat afternoon while weakening. The
fresh to strong winds ahead of the front will diminish to 20 kt
or less by Fri night. Seas 8 to 11 ft in NW swell that follow
the front will subside to less than 8 ft by late Sat. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are expected.

$$
GR