705
AXPZ20 KNHC 060928
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Mar 6 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0920 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N85W to 03N100W to 02N110W. The
ITCZ continues from 02N110W to 04N130W to beyond 03N140W.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 02N to 06N between
82W and 91W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to
10N between 124W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure of 1037 mb located well NW of the area near
38N136W extends a ridge southeastward towards the offshore
waters of Baja California. The pressure gradient between this
ridge and a meandering surface trough over the Gulf of California
is producing moderate to fresh NW to N winds offshore the Baja
California Norte waters. Seas are 4 to 7 ft within these winds S
of Punta Eugenia, and 7 to 9 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia
per recent altimeter data. Mainly gentle to locally moderate
NW winds with slight seas are along the Gulf of California.
Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are ongoing
elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters.

For the forecast, strong high pressure NW of the forecast region
will continue to support moderate to fresh NW to N winds across
the offshore forecast waters of Baja California Norte through
today. Rough seas in moderate-period NW swell associated with
these winds will gradually decay through Sat evening. Weak low
pressure is expected to form over Baja California Norte on Sat,
then shift slowly NW before it tracks back SE inland the Baja
Peninsula Mon evening and dissipate Mon night. With a nearly
stationary ridge to the west, winds over the western semicircle
of the low will become moderate to fresh, thus affecting the
offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro. Otherwise, moderate to
fresh N to NW winds are forecast to develop at the entrance of
the Gulf of California and Jalisco offshore waters Mon evening
through Tue night.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo
and downwind to approximately 89W with seas to 6 ft. In the Gulf
of Panama, gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas to 4 ft
prevail. Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle with slight to
moderate seas in SW swell.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected in
the Papagayo region through Tue night as high pressure remains N
of the region. Moderate to locally fresh N winds are forecast in
the Gulf of Panama through early next week. Mainly light to
gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through Tue night. Looking
ahead, significant cross-equatorial SW swell is expected to
briefly reach the offshore waters between Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands late on Mon, building seas to around 8 ft.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure of 1037 mb centered NW of the region near
38N136W extends a ridge across most of the forecast waters N of
15N and W of 115W. Under the influence of this high pressure
system, fresh to strong N to NE winds prevail N of 06N and W of
120W. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are within these winds, with the highest
seas N of 26N between 120W and 130. Elsewhere, winds are
moderate or weaker. Seas through the remainder of the open waters
are 4 to 7 ft in mixed swell.

For the forecast, the strong high pressure will continue to
dominate the subtropical waters through Sat night, supporting
fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas. Looking ahead, a
low pressure is forecast to develop and linger near Baja
California Norte Sat and dissipate Mon night. During this same
period, the high pressure will slowly move westward and weaken.
As a result, marine conditions are expected to improve as the
pressure gradient relaxes across the forecast waters Sun through
Tue.

$$
Ramos