504
AXPZ20 KNHC 300328
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Aug 30 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula (EP93):
A weak area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
analyzed near 14N118W at 1010 mb, or about 800 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection continues with this system,
from 14N to 17N between 114.5W and 121W. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by early next week while
moving west-northwestward or westward at around 10 kt across the
central to western part of the eastern Pacific basin. There is a
medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48
hours, and a high chance within the next 7 days. Regardless of
development, increasing winds and building seas are expected with
this feature. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook
at:
https://www.hurricanes.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 94W, from 07N northward
into Mexico, moving toward the west around 10 kt. Convection
associated with this tropical wave is described below in the
ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 118W, from 07N northward
through a 1010 mb low centered near 14N118W, EP93, to 18N,
moving toward the west around 5 kt. Please refer to the SPECIAL
FEATURES section for more information on EP93.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N71W to 06.5N79W to 08.5N84W
to low pressure 1010 mb near 14N118W to low pressure 1011 mb near
11.5N129.5W to 10.5N133W. The ITCZ extends from 10.5N133W to
beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
occurring from 04.5N to 16N between 82.5W and 100W, from 09.5N to
17.5N between 100W and 107W, from 08.5N to 17N between 107W and
122W, and from 07N to 14N between 122W and 133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The remnant low of former tropical cyclone Juliette, centered
near 25.5N122.5W, remains just outside the offshore waters of
central Baja California. High pressure to the north of this low
is beginning to build around this low and into the Baja waters,
and leading to moderate NW winds across the nearshore waters of
Baja, and light to gentle NW to N winds farther offshore.
Farther south, moderate N to NE winds extend from Baja Sur to
the Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle to moderate NW to W winds
prevail elsewhere from near Cabo Corrientes to Puerto Angel. Seas
are generally 4 to 5 ft across these area waters. Gentle to
moderate N to NE winds are across the nearshore waters of
Tehuantepec, while moderate easterly winds and seas to 6 ft
prevail father offshore, associated with a passing tropical wave.
Otherwise, mainly gentle winds and slight seas are occurring in
the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, high pressure to the NW will build modestly
across the Baja waters tonight through Mon, as the remnant low
of former tropical cyclone Juliette moves SW and dissipates. This
will lead to moderate to occasionally fresh NW winds across the
Baja California offshore waters through early next week. Gentle
to moderate winds are expected elsewhere across the Mexican
offshore waters through early Sun. A tropical wave will move W of
Tehuantepec Sun, accompanied by fresh early winds and building
seas. An area of low pressure associated with this tropical wave
could form south of southern Mexico this weekend or early next
week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for a tropical
depression to form by the middle of next week while moving
generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt offshore of Mexico.
There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation within the
next 48 hours, and a medium chance within the next 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate E to SE gap winds are occurring across the Papagayo
region this evening, as a tropical wave has moved W of the area.
Mainly gentle winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere north
of the monsoon trough, along about 09N. To the south, moderate
to locally fresh S to SW winds prevail, from the Galapagos
Islands to coastal Colombia. New SW swell is moving through the
regional waters this evening, resulting in 5 to 6 ft seas, with
local seas of 7 to 8 ft noted south of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, SW swell will dominate area seas through the
weekend, leading to rough seas around 8 ft offshore of Ecuador
and Colombia on Sat. Seas will then slowly subside Sun through
Mon. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh E winds are expected
across the Papagayo region, extending westward to the waters
offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador through Sun. Winds will
freshen to fresh to locally strong across Papagayo Mon and Mon
night, then become moderate to locally fresh through mid-week.
Moderate SW to W winds will generally prevail south of the
monsoon through through the period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
EP93.

The remnant low of former tropical cyclone Juliette remains
nearly stationary near 25.5N122.5W, with moderate N to NE winds
are occurring north and west of the center. 1022 mb high pressure
is centered just north of the area near 33N139W, and extends broad
ridging elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Mainly gentle
winds are occurring north of 20N and west of 128W, with moderate
to locally fresh N to NE winds noted elsewhere south of 20N to
the monsoon trough. Altimeter satellite data and buoy
observations show 4 to 7 ft seas in this region. Elsewhere,
mixed SE and SW swell is moving through the waters south of 10N
between 95W and 130W, resulting in 8 to 9 ft seas, as observed on
altimeter data. Moderate to locally fresh SE to SW winds are
noted south of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain just north of
the area between 130W and 140W through the weekend, then lift
northward next week, leading to generally moderate winds across
the trade wind zone. Low pressure along 118W, associated with a
tropical wave continues to produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by early next week while moving west-
northwestward or westward at around 10 kt across the central to
western part of the eastern Pacific basin. There is a medium
chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours,
and a high chance within the next 7 days. Elsewhere, mixed SE
and SW swell will lead to rough seas south of 10N through Sat
morning before seas slowly subside thereafter. Rough seas may
develop between 100W and 110W Sun into early next week as a
second potential tropical cyclone develops offshore of southern
Mexico.

$$
Stripling