831
AXPZ20 KNHC 172106
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Aug 17 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 77W from 02N near the border
of Ecuador and Colombia northward to across eastern Panama near
the border with Colombia, and continuing into the Caribbean Sea,
moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 12N between 77W
and 87W.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 98W from just offshore
Oaxaca southward to the Equator, moving westward at around 20
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N
between 93W and 102W. An area of low pressure is expected to form
in association with this wave near the ned of this week. Gradual
develop of this system is likely, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by this weekend as the low moves west-northwest
while remaining well offshore Mexico.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 125W from 16N southward,
moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted east of this wave from 07N to 11N between 115W and
125W. A broad area of low pressure could form in association
with this wave well to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands
toward the end of the week or over the weekend as the system
moves generally westward across the western portion of the east
Pacific and into the central Pacific.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends 10N73W to 11N85W to 07N102W. The ITCZ
extends from 07N102W to 08N122W, then resumes west of a tropical
wave from 07N125W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered to numerous
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 14N
between 87W and 93W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See Tropical Waves section above for information on a tropical
wave that has a potential for tropical development offshore
Mexico at the end of this week.

Strong to near gale north gap winds are over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Fresh northwest winds are near the Pacific coast of
Baja California, locally strong near and north of Punta Eugenia.
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 7 to 9 ft over
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 4 to 6 ft over the remaining open
Pacific offshore waters, except to 7 ft near Punta Eugenia, and 1
to 3 ft over the Gulf of California. A surface trough extending
southeastward to offshore Cabo Corrientes is inducing numerous
moderate to strong convection from 19N to 23N E of 110W. Locally
higher winds and seas can be expected with these thunderstorms.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the Gulf of America and relatively lower pressure south of
Mexico will continue to induce pulses of strong north winds over
the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed night, with moderate to fresh
pulses thereafter. Winds will reach reach near gale force at
times tonight and Tue night, with resultant rough seas. A surge
of strong SE winds may move from N of Cabo Corrientes into the
southern Gulf of California tonight into early Tue, associated
with a complex of convection.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

See Tropical Waves section above for information on a tropical
wave producing heavy rainfall over portions of Colombia.

Winds are moderate or weaker north of the monsoon trough, and
moderate to fresh south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 7 ft
in long-period southwest swell, except to 8 ft southwest of the
Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the western Caribbean and relatively lower pressure over
Central America will lead to pulsing strong to near gale-froce
northeast to east gap winds over the Papagayo region, with
resultant rough seas. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will
pulse south of the monsoon trough through tonight. Large
southerly swell will impact waters mainly from Ecuador to the
Galapagos Islands through Wed night, largest expected through Tue
night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Tropical Waves section above for information on a tropical
wave in the western basin that has potential for tropical
development late this week.

Moderate to fresh E winds are noted from 17N to 24N, W of 130W,
and 09N to 24N between 117W to 130W, the latter being associated
with the aforementioned tropical wave. Moderate to fresh winds
and rough seas are also found south of the monsoon trough. Winds
are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the open waters,
with seas of 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, regardless of tropical development, the
tropical waves described in the above section will bring some
increasing winds and seas to area waters. Away from these waves,
little change is expected in marine weather through the week.

$$
Konarik