286
AXPZ20 KNHC 020335 CCA
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Sep 2 2025

Correction to Offshore Waters forecast for Mexico

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Kiko:
Tropical Storm Kiko is centered near 13.8N 127.3W at 02/0300 UTC,
moving west at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed remains 55 kt with gusts to 65
kt. Seas are peaking near 18 ft within 45 nm across the N
semicircle. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from
12.5N to 14.5N between 126W and 128W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is elsewhere from 09.5N to 17.5N between 120W
and 128W. Kiko will maintain a general westward motion across the
eastern Pacific, while gradually intensifying, and move into the
central Pacific basin by this weekend. The system is forecast to
reach hurricane strength Tuesday morning, then peak around 90 kt
late Wed and Wed night, before weakening slightly Thu through Fri.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Kiko NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Depression Twelve-E:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave off the
coast of southwestern Mexico have become better organized this
evening, and this system has been classified as a tropical
depression. At 02/0300 UTC, newly formed Tropical Depression
Twelve-E was located near 17.2N 105.4W, moving west-northwest at
12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Numerous moderate
to strong convection is occurring within 150 nm across the
eastern semicircle, while scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is seen from 14.5N to the Mexican coast along 20.5N
between 102W and 107.5W, and affecting the coasts and coastal
waters of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. This system is expected
to move west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, and
remain off the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next
couple of days, and then is expected to turn northward and
approach Baja California Sur Thu night through Fri night. Heavy
rainfall is expected across the offshore waters and coastal zones
of SW and west-central Mexico through mid-week. Later in the
week, heavy rainfall is expected to shift across the waters and
peninsula of Baja California Sur. This heavy rainfall could lead
to flash flooding, especially in mountainous areas.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Twelve-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave along , mentioned above, is near 104W/105W, has
organized into Tropical Depression Twelve-E. Please see SPECIAL
FEATURES section above for more on this system.

A new tropical wave is entering the eastern Pacific basin along
84W, from 06N northward across Central America and into the NW
Caribbean, moving west near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is across the waters from 05.5N to 12N between 85W and 91W, while
scattered moderate to strong convection covers much of Central
America east of 87W and the adjacent SW Caribbean.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N74W to 09N91W to low pressure
near 17N105W 1007 mb to 14N123W, then resumes from 11.5N130W to
beyond 08.5N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 08N to 19N between 100W and 112W, and
from 05N to 10N between 113W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for information on the
potential of tropical cyclone formation off SW Mexico.

Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong thunderstorms
are noted within 240 nm of the coast of southern Mexico from
Michoacan to Jalisco, associated with newly formed T.D Twelve-E.
Strong gusty and winds and building seas of 8 to 11 ft are seen
across these waters. Outside of this new T.D. and associated
convection, moderate to fresh S to SE winds prevail between
Acapulco and Michoacan. Elsewhere, high pressure located NW of
the area extends a ridge southeastward to offshore of Baja Sur,
with a surface trough over the Gulf of California. The associated
pressure gradient is producing moderate NW winds across the Baja
waters north of Punta Eugenia, and gentle winds between Punta
Eugenia and the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are 4 to 6 ft seas in
southerly swell across these waters. Light to gentle winds
prevail across the Gulf of California, with seas in the 1-3 ft
range, reaching 4 ft at the entrance of the Gulf. Light winds
prevail elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Scattered
afternoon thunderstorms developed over S and central portions of
Baja California and have shifted northeastward into the Gulf of
California.

For the forecast, newly formed Tropical Depression Twelve-E is
expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15
kt, and gradually intensify, remaining off the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days, and then is
expected to turn northward and approach Baja California Sur Thu
night through Fri night. Strong thunderstorms, and strong to
tropical storm force winds are expected between Twleve-E and the
southwestern coast of Mexico tonight through Wed. Twelve-E is
expected to reach near 18.3N 107W as a tropical storm Tue morning,
reach near 21N 111W Wed morning, near 23N 113.3W Thu morning, and
near 24N 113.7W late Thu afternoon. Elsewhere, high pressure will
remain centered NW of the area through mid-week, with an associated
ridge across the Baja California waters. The pressure gradient
between this area of high pressure and a trough over the Gulf of
California will support moderate NW to N winds across the Baja
waters through Tue before diminishing. Fresh to strong southerly
winds are expected to develop inside the southern Gulf of California
Thu as Twelve-E approaches the Pacific coast.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh NE gap winds extend from the Papagayo
region offshore to 89W, where seas have built to 5-7 ft. Light
to gentle winds prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. South
of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail.
SW swell continues to dominate the waters of Central and South
American, with seas in the 5 to 6 ft range. A cluster of strong
thunderstorms is moving westward across western El Salvador and
into SE Guatemala and the adjacent coastal waters.

For the forecast, SW swell offshore of Ecuador and Colombia will
subside slightly through Tue, then increase modestly Wed and
Thu. Moderate gap winds across the Papagayo region will pulse to
fresh speeds at night through the middle of the week. Light to
gentle winds will prevail elsewhere  north of the monsoon
trough. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are expected south of the
monsoon trough through the week. Active thunderstorms impacting
Costa Rica will shift west and northwestward through Tue,
reaching the waters of El Salvador and Guatemala.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
Tropical Storm Kiko.

Aside from T.S. Kiko, high pressure prevails over the waters N
of 20N, anchored by a 1023 mb high centered north of the
discussion area near 38N136W. Outside the winds of Kiko, gentle
to moderate winds prevail across the waters N of 10N and W of
120W. Light to gentle winds are N of 10N and E of 120W. Moderate
to fresh winds are found S of 10N. Seas across the forecast
waters are in the 4-6 ft range, except 6 to 8 ft in mixed SE and
SW swell S of 12N between 95W and 130W.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Kiko will continue moving slowly
westward and reach near 13.8N 128.1W Tue morning as a hurricane,
move to 13.8N 129.1W late Tue afternoon, and continue to
gradually intensify, reaching near 13.9N 131.7W late Wed
afternoon, near 14.2N 134.6W late Thu afternoon and near 14.6N
137.7W late Fri afternoon before crossing 140W and into the
Central Pacific waters Sat. Elsewhere, high pressure will remain
north of the area through mid-week, with moderate trade winds
expected over the discussion waters. S to SW swell over the
waters south of 10N will support rough seas south of 10N between
100W and 120W.

$$
Stripling