076
AXPZ20 KNHC 130838
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed May 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N75W to 03.5N85W to
06N93W. The ITCZ extends from 06N94W to 09N117W to 05N125W to
09N137W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 03N to 15N between 81W and 104W and
from 01.5N to 06.5N between 119W and 134W. Scattered to locally
numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to
11N between 112.5W and 117.5W and from 07N to 12.5N between 127W
and 137W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad ridge reaching across the offshore waters of Baja
California is partially disrupted by a surface trough beyond the
offshore waters along 129W. This pressure pattern supports
moderate NW to N winds across the offshore waters from Punta
Eugenia to Cabo San Lucas and continuing to 20N, and light to
gentle winds across the waters north of Punta Eugenia. Seas
across these waters are generally 4 to 6 ft in NW swell. In the
Gulf of California, gentle to locally moderate N-NW winds
prevail across central and southern portions, where seas are 2 to
4 ft. Fresh S to SW winds have developed N of 30N due to
localized troughing. Seas there are 3 to 4 ft. Farther
southeast, light to gentle winds prevail south of Baja Sur to
Puerto Angel, where seas are 4 to 5 ft in SW swell. Strong to
near gale-force N to NE gap winds continue across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec and extend southwestward to near 14N96.5W, as high
pressure builds southward across eastern Mexico behind a cold
front moving across the eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas are 7 to 10
ft within these winds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
seen offshore of Guerrero and southeastern Chiapas.

For the forecast, strong to near gale-force northerly gap winds
will continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through this
morning, then pulse again to near 30 kt Wed night through Thu
morning as high pressure builds over eastern Mexico behind a cold
front in the Bay of Campeche. Seas will peak around 10 ft at
times with these peak winds. Fresh to strong N winds will then
pulse there into Fri morning before gap winds end Fri afternoon.
Fresh S to SW winds will continue overnight in the northern Gulf
of California as a trough prevails, then become fresh to strong
from the W Wed evening and night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh
winds are expected across the offshore waters of Baja California
through Fri as ridging west of the area strengthens. Winds will
increase to fresh to strong well offshore Baja California Norte
this weekend. Moderate seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed SW and NW swell
will dominate the offshore waters, building to 8-9 ft offshore
Baja California Norte Fri night, then to 8-14 ft on Sun, with
seas of 8 ft or greater spreading southward to offshore of Cabo
San Lazaro by Sun night.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh E to SE winds are offshore southern Nicaragua and the
Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 87W. Seas there are
4-6 ft. Light to gentle winds dominate the remainder of the
waters, except for moderate NW to N winds across the western Gulf
of Panama extending beyond the Azuero Peninsula. Seas are mainly
4-5 ft in southerly swell, except 5-8 ft from offshore Ecuador
to the Galapagos Islands. Very active convection earlier this
afternoon is shifting slowly westward and well offshore, and
is passing N of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, fresh gap winds will pulse to locally strong
offshore of the Papagayo region through the rest of the week,
mainly at night into the early morning hours, building seas
locally to rough during those times. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected
through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend,
with moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds in the Gulf of
Panama to the Azuero Peninsula at night. Showers and thunderstorms
offshore of Panama and Cost Rica will gradually shift westward
and diminish across the area through Thu.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge extends across the waters N of the ITCZ and W of
about 125W, centered on a 1029 mb high near 35N148W. The tail end
of a weak cold front has moved into the far NW waters along 138W.
The ridge supports moderate to fresh mainly NE trades across the
waters N of 08N to near 27N and W of 126W, where seas are 6-8 ft
seas in mixed S and NW swell. Gentle to moderate NE winds prevail
between 115W and 126W with seas of 5-6 ft. Mainly gentle E to SE
winds prevail S of the ITCZ, where seas are 6-8 ft in southerly
swell. Active convection is present near a low level trough
along about 115W and the ITCZ there, as described above.

For the forecast, the ridge has weaken slightly ahead of the
weak cold front, and will maintain current conditions today. The
high pressure NW of the area will begin to build across the
region from the NW later today through Fri to produce fresh
trade winds S of 24N and W of 125W, with seas building 7-9 ft. N
winds are expected to strengthen slightly to fresh to strong
across the NE and N-central waters by the weekend, with seas
building there as a result. Rough seas to around 8 ft in
southerly swell will continue across the far southwestern waters
to near the Equator and W of 100W. Seas of around 8 ft may
continue across this same area through Thu before new southerly
swell reaches the equator Fri night into the weekend, building
seas back to around 8 ft.

$$
Stripling