283
AXPZ20 KNHC 050836
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Jun 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Amanda is centered near 13.4N 132.7W at 05/0900
UTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with
gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently around 4.5 m, or 13 to 14
ft. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted within
30 nm in the SE semicircle and 150 nm in the NW semicircle.
Additional scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 210
nm in the NW quadrant. Amanda is moving toward the west-
northwest. A turn toward the west is expected later today,
followed by a southwestward motion by Sat. Little change in
strength is forecast today, but gradual weakening is likely to
begin by tonight and continue through the weekend. Amanda is
forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Sun. Please read
the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml
and the latest Amanda NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory
at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the Gulf of Papagayo at 11N86W to
10N95W to 14N104W to 09N122W to 11N129W, then resumes SSW of
Tropical Storm Amanda near 09N133W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered
to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
within 300 nm either side of the axis between 80W and 100W, and
within 180 nm either side of the axis between 103W and 130W.
Isolated to widely scattered moderate convection is noted from
03.5N to 09.5N between 130W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge, anchored by a 1032 mb high pressure center located near
36N144W, extends southeastward and into the Baja California
waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern is
producing gentle to moderate NW winds across the Baja Norte
waters north of Punta Eugenia, and moderate to locally fresh NW
to N winds across the Baja Sur waters to the Revillagigedo
Islands. Seas across these waters are 5 to 7 ft in mixed NW and
SW swell, except 7 to 9 ft to the W-NW of Isla Guadalupe in newer
N-NW swell. Inside the Gulf of California, light winds prevail,
except moderate N of 30N, with seas of 1 to 3 ft across the Gulf,
except seas of 4 to 5 ft in SW swell near the entrance. Across
the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle
winds dominate, with moderate seas of mainly 6 to 7 ft, primarily
in SW swell. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across
the waters offshore between Tehuantepec and Michoacan as
described above.

For the forecast, high pressure well NW of the area extending a
broad ridge into the Baja waters will weaken slightly through
early next week as the high drifts to the W. This pattern will
support gentle to moderate NW to N winds through tonight, then
diminish slightly through Sun, except persisting to fresh near
Cabo San Lucas, pulsing to strong Sun night into early next week.
Rough seas in building NW swell, will propagate across the outer
offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia through early next week.
Southerly winds may pulse to fresh to strong in the Gulf of
California N of 30N Sat night and Sun night. A trough of low
pressure located well offshore of southwestern Mexico is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during
the next several days while it moves slowly northeastward near
the coast of southern Mexico. Currently, this system has a high
chance of tropical cyclone formation in 7 days.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak surface pressure pattern continues across the Gulf of
America and western Caribbean. This pattern is yielding light to
gentle winds over the Central American offshore waters, except
locally moderate to fresh offshore Nicaragua, while gentle to
moderate SSE winds are from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos
Islands. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in building SW swell prevail across
the area waters, except 7 to 9 ft from offshore Ecuador to the
Galapagos Islands. Scattered thunderstorms remain active offshore
of much of the area near the monsoon trough as described above
with winds and seas possible in and near any activity.

For the forecast, SW swell will continue to propagate across the
regional waters, maintaining moderate to rough seas through Sat
morning, with highest seas around 8 ft expected between Ecuador
and the Galapagos Islands. A new set of larger SW swell is
expected to arrive by Sat night, propagating NE into early next
week and building seas to 7 to 10 ft at a minimum. Otherwise,
a trough of low pressure offshore of Central America is
producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form during the next
several days while it moves slowly northward. Regardless of
development, monsoonal SW to W winds will increase south of the
monsoon trough over the weekend. Currently, this system has a
medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in 7 days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical
Storm Amanda located well SW of Baja California Sur.

High pressure at 1032 mb near 36N144W dominates the waters N of
15N and W of 110W, extending southeastward to SE of the
Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge
and T.S. Amanda is promoting moderate to fresh NE to E winds
across the waters N of 15N and W of 120W. Seas over these waters
and elsewhere N of 10N are in the 6 to 9 ft range in a mix of
trade wind waves and NW to N swell. Mainly gentle winds are S of
the monsoon trough and W of 120W, with moderate to locally fresh
winds S of the monsoon trough and E of 120W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft
S of 10N and W of 120W, and 7 to 9 ft in mainly S-SW swell
elsewhere.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Amanda will move to 13.4N
133.6W this afternoon, 13.2N 134.3W Sat morning, 12.8N 134.7W Sat
afternoon, 12.2N 135.1W Sun morning, weaken to a remnant low
near 11.7N 135.6W Sun afternoon, and 11.3N 136.3W Mon morning.
Amanda will change little in intensity as it moves to 11.0N
138.0W early Tue. Meanwhile, the high pressure will drift W and
weaken slightly across the area waters today through the weekend
as Tropical Storm Amanda tracks toward the NW then W over the
western portion of the area, resulting in gradually diminishing
winds across the trade wind zone. Little change is expected
elsewhere through Sat morning, before large S to SW reaches the
equator and moves through the regional waters through early next
week, reaching all the way to 20N. Meanwhile, northerly swell in
the N-central waters with seas of 7 to 10 ft will linger for the
next several days.

Looking ahead, monsoonal southerly winds are forecast to increase
to at least fresh to strong E of 110W this weekend into early
next week with possible tropical cyclone formation off both
southern Mexico and off portions of Central America.

$$
Lewitsky