039
AXPZ20 KNHC 011016
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Nov 1 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning: A 1006 mb low is over the Baja California Norte
offshores, from which a cold front extends SW to 21N123W. The
low pressure with attendant cold front will move across the Baja
California Norte offshore waters through this evening. Moderate
to fresh SW winds will develop over the northern Gulf of
California ahead of the front this morning and rapidly reach
strong to minimal gale-force by this afternoon. A period of
rough seas to 9 ft is expected later this morning through early
in the evening. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N81W to 05N103W to 07N136W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 01S to 10N
between 77W and 88W, and from 03S to 08N between 104W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong N to NE gap winds are occurring over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec with 5 to 9 ft seas. A 1006 mb low is over the Baja
California Norte offshores from which a cold front extends SW to
21N123W. Scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms are ahead of
the front affecting the Baja California Norte Peninsula and its
offshores as well as the northern Gulf of California. Aside from
the convection, fresh to strong winds in the eastern semicircle
of the low and rough seas to 9 ft are affecting the Baja
California offshores N of Punta Eugenia. Moderate to locally
fresh SW winds are developing in the northern half of the Gulf
of California where seas remain slight. Elsewhere, winds are
mainly light to gentle and seas moderate to 6 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N gap winds over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will continue through Mon morning. The low pressure
with attendant cold front will move across the Baja California
Norte offshore waters through this evening. Fresh to strong
winds and rough seas associated with this system will continue to
affect the offshores N of Cabo San Lazaro through this afternoon
when seas will subside below 8 ft. Moderate to fresh SW winds
will continue to develop over the northern Gulf of California
ahead of the front, rapidly reaching strong to minimal gale-
force winds by this afternoon. A period of rough seas to 9 ft is
expected from late this morning through early in the evening.
The front will move into NW Mexico by Mon morning, and building
high pressure NW of Baja California Norte will tighten the
gradient in the Gulf, thus resulting in moderate to fresh
northerly winds continuing through Tue night. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds will also develop along the Baja offshores Mon
through Tue morning. Long period NW swell will build seas to 8 to
9 ft N of Cabo San Lazaro Tue night into Thu morning.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong gap NE winds prevail in the Papagayo region
where seas have built to 8-9 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas in SW swell are elsewhere. Otherwise, scattered
heavy showers and tstms are across the offshores between
Colombia and Panama.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds over the
Gulf of Papagayo region will diminish to moderate or weaker
speeds by Mon evening. A low pressure may develop SW of the Costa
Rica offshores late Tue and is forecast to bring strong SW winds
and rough seas to 9 ft to the Costa Rica and Panama offshores
into early Fri morning.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1006 mb low is over the Baja California Norte offshores from
which a cold front extends SW to 21N123W where it stalls to
17N134W. Fresh to strong winds are over the Baja California Norte
offshores, however fresh NNE winds and rough seas to 9 ft follows
the front west of the offshores to 133W. Moderate NE to E winds
are across the remainder subtropical waters along with moderate
seas. South of the monsoon, there is an area of fresh to strong
SW winds and rough seas to 9 ft from 00N to 05N between 108W and
114W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast, the front will continue to push northeastward
today, which will result in winds diminishing to moderate or
weaker speeds, and seas subsiding to 7 ft. A new cold front is
forecast to enter the NW waters on Mon, which will be followed by
fresh to strong winds and long period NW swell resulting in rough
seas to 15 ft. The front will move eastward and dissipate Tue
night west of the Baja California offshore waters. However, NW
swell will continue to support rough seas over the subtropical
and western tropical waters through Fri.

$$
Ramos