129
AXPZ20 KNHC 272128
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Aug 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Juliette is centered near 23.9N 120.2W at 27/2100
UTC, moving north-northwest at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with
gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are near 16 ft near the center per
recent altimeter data, with seas in excess of 12 ft extending out
roughly 75 nm from the center. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted from 22N to 27N between 118W and 120W.
Juliette is forecast to move north-northwestward to northward and
have a slowdown in forward speed over the next couple of days.
Weakening is forecast, and Juliette is expected to degenerate into
a remnant low by Thursday.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Juliette NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 105W from 06N-18N, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N
to 19N between 101W and 116W. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for gradual development of this system toward the end
of the week, and a tropical depression could form over the
weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward
across the central to western part of the eastern Pacific basin.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 14N110W and then
resumes SW of T.S. Juliette from 18N121W to 11N140W. Aside from
the convection associated with Juliette and the tropical waves,
scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm on either
side of the monsoon trough and E of 102W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information
related to T.S. Juliette.

Aside from Juliette that is affecting the outer Baja California
Sur offshore waters, fresh to strong northerly gap winds in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec generated by high pressure building into NE
Mexico are causing rough seas. For the remainder of offshore
waters, winds are moderate or less with moderate seas in
southerly swell. In the Gulf of California, light to gentle
southerly winds and slight seas dominate.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Juliette will move to 25.2N
120.7W Thu morning, weaken to a remnant low near 26.6N 120.8W Thu
afternoon, 27.3N 120.8W Fri morning, 27.8N 120.8W Fri afternoon,
and dissipate Sat morning. Fresh to strong N to NE gap winds in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse through Thu, with rough seas
also expected. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
forecast across the region Thu through Sun.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are ongoing in the Gulf of
Papagayo with moderate seas. These winds are funneling through
passes in Central America in response to a high pressure gradient
from between high pressure N of the Caribbean and lower pressure
with the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere
across the Central American offshore waters while between Ecuador
and the Galapagos Islands gentle to moderate S winds are
observed. Seas are moderate in S to SE swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE gap winds will pulse
in the Gulf of Papagayo through this weekend. Gentle to moderate
S winds will prevail between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands
through the forecast period along with moderate seas. Moderate or
weaker winds are forecast elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features for information on Tropical
Storm Juliette.

Aside from Juliette, high pressure of 1023 mb centered near
34N141W extends a ridge across the E Pacific subtropical waters N
of 18N and W of 125W. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds are
occurring along the periphery of the high with moderate seas over
much of this region. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
are elsewhere.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Juliette will move to 25.2N
120.7W Thu morning, weaken to a remnant low near 26.6N 120.8W Thu
afternoon, 27.3N 120.8W Fri morning, 27.8N 120.8W Fri afternoon,
and dissipate Sat morning. A tropical wave located several
hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
gradual development of this system toward the end of the week,
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward at around 15 kt
across the central to western part of the eastern Pacific basin. Another
area of low pressure could form this weekend offshore of the
coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development of this system during the
early and middle portions of next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Otherwise, long-
period, cross-equatorial swell will spread across the waters S
of 07N E of 120W Thu and subside Sat night. Rough seas are
expected with this swell event.

$$
ERA