650
AXPZ20 KNHC 290245
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Aug 29 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula (Invest-EP93):
A broad area of low pressure is located several hundred nautical
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. A surface low pressure of 1010 mb is analyzed near
13N113.5W. Latest satellite imagery shows clusters of scattered
moderate isolated strong convection from 09N to 17N between 105W
and 115W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely
to form late this weekend as it moves west-northwestward at 10
to 15 kt. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone
formation through the next 48 hours and a high chance through 7
days. Regardless of development, increasing winds and building
seas are expected with this feature. Refer to the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook at:
https://www.hurricanes.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across Central America, and analyzed
along 89W north of 06N and inland to the central Yucatan
Peninsula. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Convection
associated with this tropical wave is described below in the
ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection follows the northern part of the wave over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N74W to 08N79W to
low pressure 1010 mb near 13N113.5W to low pressure 1011 mb near
13.5N127W to 11N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
seen from 04N to 11N east of 90W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is from 07N to 15.5N between 91W and 115W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information
related to a broad area of low pressure located several hundred
nautical miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja
California.

The remnant low of former tropical cyclone Juliette is seen as a
broad swirl of low to middle level clouds near 26N121W, with a
pressure of 1010 mb. No significant convection is noted with the
low. Fresh to strong winds are within 120 nm of the low in the NE
semicircle as seen in afternoon ASCAT data. Seas are 8 to 10 ft
with these winds. Elsewhere, fresh to strong northerly gap winds
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are supported by a gradient related to
high pressure over eastern Mexico. These winds are resulting in
moderate seas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
continue from 22N to 25.5N between 108W and 112.5W, and are
supported by middle level low pressure over the southern tip of
Baja California. For the remainder of offshore waters, winds are
moderate or weaker with moderate seas in southerly swell, while
slight seas prevail in the Gulf of California away from the
entrance and any deep convection.

For the forecast, the remnant low of former of Juliette will
move slowly northward through Sat while continuing to weaken and
eventually dissipate. Fresh to strong north to northeast gap
winds and rough seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish Fri
morning. Winds will pulse to moderate to fresh thereafter. Fresh
northwest to north winds over the northern Gulf of California
this evening will diminish tonight. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are forecast across the remainder of the waters
through the weekend and into early next week. Looking ahead, a
broad area of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles
south- southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over
the weekend while the system moves west- northwestward across
the central to western part of the eastern Pacific basin.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh east winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo
region along with moderate seas. Light to gentle winds are
elsewhere across the Central American offshore waters north of
10N. Moderate southwest winds generally prevail south of 10N,
except for moderate to locally fresh southwest winds across the
waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Moderate seas
in southeast to south swell prevail with these winds. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is offshore Costa Rica and western
Panama, and extends westward to 91W.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh north to northeast gap winds
will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo this weekend, possibly
increasing to fresh to strong early next week. Otherwise, mainly
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail
elsewhere, with slight to moderate seas.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Updated

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information
related to a broad area of low pressure located several hundred
nautical miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja
California, with possible tropical cyclone formation possible
within the next 48 hours.

Aside from the remnant low of Juliette, high pressure dominates the
waters north of the monsoon trough and west of 125W. Winds are
moderate to locally fresh from 11N to 18N west of 130W, and
moderate or weaker elsewhere north of the monsoon trough west of
120W. Winds are mainly gentle to moderate south of the monsoon
trough, except for fresh winds east of about 110W. Seas are 5 to
7 ft in mixed northerly and southerly swell north of the monsoon
trough, and 7 to 9 ft in south swell south of the monsoon trough,
highest near and south of the Equator.

For the forecast, see the Special Features section above for
information about a possible new tropical cyclone that could have
significant impacts on winds and seas. Otherwise, cross-
equatorial swell over the far southern waters will gradually
fade through the weekend. Moderate to fresh southerly winds from
03N to 06N between 93W-124W will build seas 6 to 8 ft between
109W and 124W on Fri and between 95W and 110W on Sat, then
subside on Sun. Elsewhere, little change in winds is forecast
through Sat.

$$
Stripling