103
AXPZ20 KNHC 150914
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jun 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Dalila is centered near 18.0N 107.2W at 15/0900
UTC, moving west-northwest at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with
gusts to 65 kt. Seas of 12 ft and greater extend outward to 165
nm to the northeast, and along the SW Mexican coast, and up to
150 nm across the southeast quadrant. Peak seas are estimated at
22 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection extend from 15N to
22N between 105W and 111W. Dalila will continue to move towards
the west-northwest and turn toward the west later tonight or
Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dalila is forecast
to remain offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. Dalila is
likely near its peak intensity and will begin to gradually weaken
later tonight or Sunday. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
T.S. Dalila NHC Forecast Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extend from Honduras southward into the eastern
Tropical Pacific along 88W, moving westward 5 kt. A 1009 mb
surface low is along the monsoon trough near 09N88W. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between
85W and 92W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 12N99W, then resumes
southwest of T.S. Dalila near 11N110W to 09N127W. The ITCZ
extends from 09N127W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 08N to 14N between 100W and 112W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Dalila.

Broad cyclonic flow associated with Dalila dominates the SW
Mexican offshore waters, from Michoacan to the waters of Jalisco
where strong winds to 30 kt are ongoing. Seas to 12 ft
associated with Dalila continue to affect the coast across much
of this area. Elsewhere, a broad and weak ridge extends from a
1028 mb high centered well NW of the area near 38N135W to just
west of Guadalupe Island. This pattern is supporting moderate to
locally fresh NW winds across the offshore waters of Baja
California where seas are 5 to 7 ft in S swell. Light to gentle
winds are ongoing in the northern Gulf of California with seas
less than 3 ft. In the southern half of the Gulf winds are
moderate from the SW and seas are 3 to 6 ft. Gentle to locally
moderate W to NW winds are across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with 7
to 8 ft in SW swell.

For the forecast, Dalila will move to 18.3N 108.7W this
afternoon, become post-tropical and move to 18.4N 110.4W Mon
morning, weaken to a remnant low near 18.0N 112.0W Mon afternoon,
17.8N 113.7W Tue morning, 17.8N 115.8W Tue afternoon, and
dissipate Wed morning. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will
continue to mix with seas generated from Dalila to impact the
waters between Tehuantepec and Baja California Sur through tonight.
Elsewhere, high pressure well northwest of the area will support
generally moderate to locally fresh N-NW winds across the Baja
California offshore waters through Thu night. NW to N swell will
build into the Baja waters Mon evening through Thu night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A tropical wave moving across Central America along 88W is
described above, and contributing to active weather extending
across much of the waters of El Salvador, Guatemala and Nicaragua.
This activity is producing strong gusty winds and rough seas.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds associated with the tropical
wave 1009 mb low are over the Costa Rica offshore waters where
seas are 5-6 ft. Elsewhere across the remainder Central America
offshore waters, winds are light to gentle, and seas are
moderate to 6 ft in strong cross-equatorial SW swell. Otherwise,
winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands are gentle to
moderate from the SSE and seas 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, large S to SW swell dominating the regional
waters will slowly subside through early next week. Tropical
Storm Dalila located SW of Manzanillo, Mexico will turn more
W-NW and weaken tonight through Tue. Low pressure offshore Costa
Rica is expected to drift W to W-NW through the middle of next
week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of the low, and a tropical depression could form by
the middle of next week while moving westward to west-
northwestward just offshore of the coasts of El Salvador,
Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected to remain active across the regional waters in
association with this system. This system is being monitored for
potential tropical development, and has a low chance of formation
through 48 hours, and a medium chance through 7 days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Dalila, located a few hundred nautical miles
south of Manzanillo, Mexico.

Broad and weak ridging dominates the waters north of 18N and W of
120W. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate N to NE
winds north of 10N and west of 120W, with 5 to 7 ft seas in a
mix of N and S swell. Southerly swell is slowly subsiding between
90W and 110W, where seas are 7 to 8 ft. Elsewhere south of the
monsoon/ITCZ, winds and seas are mainly moderate.

In the forecast, little change is expected west of 120W except
for increased NW swell north of 26N and east of 130W through
Thu. Conditions east of 120W and associated with T.S. Dalila are
described in the Special Features section above, and will be
dominated by mixed E to SE swell generated by Dalila. Dalila is
forecast to spin down to a 20 kt remnant low by Mon evening near
17.8N 113.7W.

$$
Ramos