716
AXPZ20 KNHC 300856
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Aug 30 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula (EP93):
A weak area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
analyzed near 14N118.5W at 1010 mb, or about 820 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection continues with this system,
from 13N to 17N between 116W and 121W. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by early next week while
moving west-northwestward or westward at around 10 kt across the
central to western part of the eastern Pacific basin. There is a
medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48
hours, and a high chance within the next 7 days. Regardless of
development, increasing winds and building seas are expected with
this feature. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook
at:
https://www.hurricanes.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 97W, from 07N northward
into Mexico, moving toward the west around 10 kt. Convection
associated with this tropical wave is described below in the
ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 119W, from 07N northward
through a 1010 mb low centered near 14N118.5W, EP93, to 18N,
moving toward the west at 5 to 10 kt. Please refer to the
SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information on EP93.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N71W to 06.5N79W to
09.5N95W to 09.5N105W to low pressure 1010 mb near 14N118.5W to
low pressure 1011 mb near 11.5N130W to 10N132W. The ITCZ extends
from 10N132W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is occurring from 04N to 08.5N east of 86W,
and from 06.5N to 18N between 97W and 134W. Scattered to locally
numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 14N
between 86W and 97W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The remnant low of former tropical cyclone Juliette, centered
near 24.5N123W, has begun to shift SW and is moving farther away
from the offshore waters of central Baja California. High
pressure to the north of this low is beginning to build around
this low and into the Baja waters, and leading to gentle to moderate
NW winds across the nearshore waters of Baja, and light to
gentle NW to N winds farther offshore. Farther south, gentle to
moderate N to NE winds extend from Baja Sur to the Revillagigedo
Islands. Gentle to locally moderate NW to W winds prevail
elsewhere from near Cabo Corrientes to Acapulco. Seas are
generally 4 to 5 ft across these area waters. Gentle to moderate
N to NE winds are across the nearshore waters of Tehuantepec,
while moderate easterly winds and seas to 6 ft prevail father
offshore, associated with a passing tropical wave. Otherwise,
mainly gentle winds and slight seas are occurring in the Gulf of
California. Scattered strong thunderstorms have recently
developed within 90 nm of the coasts of western Guerrero to
Colima.

For the forecast, high pressure to the NW will build modestly
across the Baja waters tonight through Mon, as the remnant low
of former tropical cyclone Juliette moves SW and dissipates. This
will lead to moderate to occasionally fresh NW winds across the
Baja California offshore waters through Mon. Gentle to moderate
winds are expected elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters
through early Sun. A tropical wave will move W of Tehuantepec
Sun, accompanied by fresh early winds and building seas. An area
of low pressure associated with this tropical wave could form
south of southern Mexico this weekend or early next week.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for a tropical
depression to form by the middle of next week while moving
generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt and offshore of
Mexico. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation
within the next 48 hours, and a high chance within the next 7
days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate E to SE gap winds continue across the Papagayo region
tonight, behind a tropical wave that has moved W of the area.
Moderate SE winds then extend westward and offshore of El
Salvador and eastern Guatemala, where a large cluster of strong
thunderstorms has shifted SW and offshore of the coast there in
recent hours. To the south of 10N, gentle to moderate S to SW
winds prevail, from the Galapagos Islands to coastal Colombia.
New SW swell is moving through the regional waters tonight,
resulting in 5 to 6 ft seas, with seas of 7 to 8 ft noted south
of the Equator.

For the forecast, SW swell will dominate area seas through the
weekend, leading to rough seas around 8 ft offshore of Ecuador
and Colombia on Sat and Sat night. Seas will then slowly subside
Sun through Mon. Elsewhere, moderate gap winds are expected
across the Papagayo region, extending westward to the waters
offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador through Sat night. Winds
will increase to fresh to locally strong across Papagayo Sun
night through mid-week. Moderate SW to W winds will generally
prevail south of the monsoon through through the period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
EP93.

The remnant low of former tropical cyclone Juliette is near
24.5N123W, and now finally shifting toward the SW. Recent
satellite scatterometer data showed moderate N to NE winds occurring
within 180 nm northwest of the center. 1022 mb high pressure is
centered just north of the area near 33N129W, and extends broad
ridging that drapes across the remnants of Juliette to north of
the monsoon trough, between 110W and 150W. Mainly gentle winds
are occurring north of 22N and west of 128W, with moderate to
locally fresh N to NE winds noted elsewhere south of 22N to the
monsoon trough. Altimeter satellite data and buoy observations
show 4 to 7 ft seas in this region. Elsewhere, mixed SE and SW
swell is moving through the waters south of 10N between 95W and
140W, resulting in 6 to 9 ft seas. Moderate to locally fresh SE
to SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain just north of
the area between 120W and 140W through the weekend, then lift
northward next week, leading to moderate to locally fresh winds
across the trade wind zone. Low pressure near 14N118.5W,
associated with a tropical wave, continues to produce scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by early next week while moving
west- northwestward or westward at around 10 kt across the
central to western part of the eastern Pacific basin. There is a
medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48
hours, and a high chance within the next 7 days. Elsewhere, mixed
SE and SW swell will lead to rough seas south of 10N through Sat
morning before seas slowly subside thereafter. Rough seas may
develop between 100W and 115W late Sun into Wed as a second
potential tropical cyclone attempts to develop offshore of
southern Mexico.

$$
Stripling