676
AXPZ20 KNHC 200403
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Nov 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia southwestward
to the coast near 08N78W, and continues to 09.5N90W to 08N105W
to 07N110W and to 08N118W, where it transitions to the ITCZ
to 09N125W to 07N135W and to west of the area at 08N140W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within
60 nm south of the ITCZ between 137W-140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A trough that was following in behind a recently dissipated cold
front extends from the northern Gulf of California southwestward
to across northern Baja California and to near 27N125W. Moderate
to fresh NW to N winds are behind the trough along with rough
seas in long-period NW swell. Gentle to moderate south to
southwest winds are ahead of the trough in the northern Gulf of
California along with seas of 3 to 4 ft. Elsewhere, a weak
pressure gradient elsewhere support mainly gentle winds with
slight to moderate seas in NW swell, except for slight seas in
the remainder Gulf of California.

For the forecast, rough seas in the wake of a recent cold front
will continue to propagate southeastward across the outer
offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through Thu morning. A new
cold front is forecast to enter the Baja California Norte
offshore waters Thu night, followed by large swell bringing rough
seas to the waters N of Cabo San Lucas Sun night. These seas
will slowly subside through Mon night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo
and downwind to near 89W along with moderate seas. Elsewhere
across the Central America offshore waters, light to gentle winds
and slight seas prevail, except for moderate N winds in the Gulf
of Panama. Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, moderate
S to SW winds prevail along with moderate seas.

Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection over and near southern and central Panama due to the
nearby monsoon trough. Similar activity is noted west of
Colombia to near 81W and south of the Gulf of Panama to near 07N.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate
seas are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo through Mon night.
Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are
forecast elsewhere through the weekend and into early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A trough is analyzed from 28N119W to 27N125W. Moderate to fresh
N to NE winds are behind the trough and also from 20N to 28N
between 125W and 131W. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in long-period NW
swell with these winds. Elsewhere, high pressure is over the
remainder of the area N of about and west of 110W. The gradient
between the high pressure and relatively lower pressure in the
tropics is generally allowing for fresh to strong trade winds
from 14N to 21N between 135W and 140W along with seas of 8 to 10
ft, and mostly fresh trade winds elsewhere from 10N to 22N
W of 124W along with seas of 7 to 9 ft in long-period N swell.
Moderate to fresh trade winds are present elsewhere between the
ITCZ and 25N and W of 121W.

For the forecast, the long-period NW swell in the wake of the
trough will propagate southeastward over most of the waters W of
Baja California before subsiding Thu. The gradient between the
aforementioned high pressure and relatively lower pressure in the
tropics continue to support the previously mentioned fresh to
strong trade winds through early Fri as the next cold front
pushes southward toward 20N. This cold front is expected to
reach the NW waters tonight, and be followed by fresh NW to N
winds and rough seas. Model guidance suggests that low pressure
is expected to from offshore the southern California/Baja
California Norte border on Fri, and move into the waters west of
Baja California early on Sat. The low may be attendant by fresh
to strong winds and seas in the range of 8 to 12 ft that will be
embedded within a large set of NW long-period swell that will be
propagating over the waters W of Baja California at that time.

$$
Aguirre