163
AXPZ20 KNHC 290945
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Nov 29 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0910 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N82W to 05N94W to 09N107W to
08N131W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N131W to beyond 07N140W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from
06N to 16N between 101W and 114W. Scattered moderate convection
is ongoing from 05N to 10N E of 89W and from 07N to 18N W of
120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A strong high pressure system over the eastern United States
is supporting fresh to strong N winds and rough seas to 10 ft in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds
are ongoing from the entrance of the Gulf of California to Cabo
Corrientes with seas to 6 ft in SW swell. Light to gentle winds
and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, strong winds will persist in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, diminishing to fresh speeds this evening. Strong
speeds winds will briefly resume in Tehuantepec Sun night into
late Mon, and then again Tue night into Wed. Otherwise, a
surface trough is forecast to develop SW of the Baja California
Sur offshore waters today and then will drift NE, impacting the
waters near the Revillagigedo Islands with moderate to fresh NE
to E winds Sun into Mon. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast
elsewhere through Wed night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds in the SW Caribbean are funneling
through Costa Rica and into the Gulf of Papagayo where fresh NE
winds reach downstream to about 90W. Moderate seas to 7 ft are
ongoing with these winds. South of the monsoon trough and between
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to moderate
from the S to SW and seas are moderate to 6 ft. Elsewhere, light
to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh NE winds and moderate seas will prevail
in the Papagayo region through Sun, and resume again Wed night.
Moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are forecast
elsewhere through the forecast period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A subtropical ridge continues to dominate the waters N of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ to the W of 110W. The gradient between
the ridge and lower pressure associated with the monsoon trough
and ITCZ convection continues to support moderate to fresh NE to
E winds N of these boundaries to about 20N and W of 107W. Seas
in these waters are 5-7 ft. Long-period NW swell with peak seas
to 10 ft is starting to move across the NW subtropical waters
this morning. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trade winds and
locally rough seas will persist in the western tropical waters
through today. Meanwhile, the NW swell will persist into weekend
north of 25N with seas to 10 ft. Another large set of NW swell
is forecast to arrive to the NW waters by the end of the weekend
and into early next week.

$$
Ramos