776
AXPZ20 KNHC 082146
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Oct 8 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Recently downgraded Tropical Storm Priscilla is centered near
22.0N 113.0W at 08/2100 UTC, moving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are around 33 ft (10.0
m). Numerous moderate convection is noted within 150 nm in the SE
semicircle, and within 210 nm in the W quadrant of Priscilla.
Priscilla is moving toward the NW and this general motion is
expected to continue through Thu, followed by a turn toward the
north Thu night. On the forecast track, the center of Priscilla
is expected to move parallel to, but offshore of, the coast of
Baja California Sur through Thu. Weakening is forecast, and
Priscilla is expected to become a remnant low by Fri. Large
swells generated by Priscilla are affecting the Pacific coast of
Baja California Sur as well as portions of coastal southwestern
and west-central Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions, in addition to some
coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather
office. As Priscilla moves off the west coast of Baja
California, up to an inch of rain is expected across the Baja
California peninsula. Moisture associated with Priscilla will
lead to heavy rainfall and a flash flood risk across portions of
Arizona, southern Utah, through the Four Corners into southwest
Colorado and far northwest New Mexico from Thu into Sat. Please
read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Priscilla NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Octave is centered near 15.8N 115.1W at 08/2100
UTC, moving east-northeast at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with
gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently around 15 ft (4.5 m).
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 210 nm in the SW
quadrant. Octave is moving toward the east-northeast, and
gradual turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward
speed is expected tonight. Gradual weakening is forecast during
the next day or so, and Octave is expected to dissipate on
Thu. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Octave NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

South of Southern Mexico (Invest EP90): A large and persistent
area of showers and thunderstorms remains disorganized near and
to the west of a small area of 1006 mb low pressure, Invest EP90,
located just offshore of the coast of southern Mexico near
15N95.5W. Currently, associated winds are 20-30 kt, with seas of
around 8 ft. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 10N to 17.5N between 92.5W and 106.5W. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development over the next
few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
week if the system remains over water. The disturbance is
forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, roughly
parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico, and
interests there should monitor its progress. Regardless of
development, the disturbance is expected to produce periods of
heavy rainfall along portions of the southern and southwestern
coasts of Mexico through the end of the week, which could lead to
localized flooding, as well as increasing winds and seas. This
system has a high chance for tropical development within the next
48 hours. Please read the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 1008 mb low pressure near the
northern coast of Colombia at 11N76W to across the SW Caribbean
Sea along 11N to across Costa Rica, emerging over the Gulf of
Papagayo at 11N86W to low pressure, Invest EP96, near 15N95.5W,
then resumes WSW of Octave from 14.5N119W to 10.5N129W. The ITCZ
extends from 10.5N129W to beyond 09N140W. Other than the
convection mentioned with the three Special Features above,
scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 02N to
09N between 77W and 88W, from 04N to 07N between 97W and 106W,
and from 06.5N to 11.5N between 127W and 133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
recently downgraded Tropical Storm Priscilla, Tropical Storm
Octave, and Low Pressure in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, Invest EP90,
with a high chance of tropical cyclone formation.

Dangerous marine conditions continue to impact the waters
offshore Baja California Sur, including the entrance to the Gulf
of California, and the waters near the Revillagigedo Islands due
to both Priscilla and Octave. Farther south, scattered to
numerous thunderstorms, fresh to strong winds and locally rough
seas persist near the Gulf of Tehuantepec, associated with a 1006
mb low pressure area, Invest EP90. Moderate to locally fresh
breezes and moderate seas are noted elsewhere over Mexican
offshore waters, except for gentle breezes and slight seas over
the northern Gulf of California.

For the forecast, Priscilla will move to 22.8N 114.0W Thu morning,
24.0N 114.8W Thu afternoon, 25.3N 115.2W Fri morning, weaken to
a remnant low near 26.3N 115.3W Fri afternoon, 27.0N 115.1W Sat
morning, and dissipate Sat afternoon. Meanwhile, Octave will move
to 16.5N 112.9W Thu morning, weaken to a remnant low near 17.6N
110.0W Thu afternoon, and dissipate Fri morning. Also, low
pressure, Invest EP90, in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with a high
chance of tropical cyclone formation, will bring increasing winds
and seas as it moves WNW at 10-15 kt, roughly parallel to the
coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Conditions may finally
improve over the offshore waters early next week once all three
systems pass or dissipate.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle westerly winds prevail across the majority of the
waters N of 04N/05N. Moderate to fresh S-SW winds are S of
04N/05N, locally higher in any convection described in the
monsoon trough section above. Seas are 5-8 ft in southerly swell
across the offshore waters, highest from offshore Ecuador to the
Galapagos Islands, except 4-7 ft seas offshore Colombia and near
the Gulf of Panama.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the weather pattern
across most of the region for the remainder of this week and into
the weekend under a weak pressure gradient. The southerly swell
will gradually subside into the upcoming weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
recently downgraded Tropical Storm Priscilla, Tropical Storm
Octave, and Low Pressure in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, Invest EP90,
with a high chance of tropical cyclone formation.

Outside of those three systems, a broad and weak low is embedded
in the monsoon trough per recent ASCAT data, located near
10.5N127.5W with associated fresh to strong winds and rough seas.
Otherwise, a weak and broad surface ridge dominates the waters N
of the monsoon trough/ITCZ and W of 120W, along with gentle to
moderate winds. Seas are also moderate here away from the above.
Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are S of the monsoon
trough/ITCZ, with seas of 7-9 ft in southerly swells mixed with
swells from both Priscilla and Octave, resulting in confused and
hazardous seas.

For the forecast, Priscilla will move to 22.8N 114.0W Thu morning,
24.0N 114.8W Thu afternoon, 25.3N 115.2W Fri morning, weaken to
a remnant low near 26.3N 115.3W Fri afternoon, 27.0N 115.1W Sat
morning, and dissipate Sat afternoon. Meanwhile, Octave will move
to 16.5N 112.9W Thu morning, weaken to a remnant low near 17.6N
110.0W Thu afternoon, and dissipate Fri morning. Low pressure,
Invest EP90, in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with a high chance of
tropical cyclone formation, will bring increasing winds and seas
as it moves WNW at 10-15 kt, roughly parallel to the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico. High pressure should build
across the waters N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ in the wake of the
tropical/potential systems during the weekend into early next
week. The southerly swells to rough over the southern waters will
gradually decay into the upcoming weekend. New northerly, rough
swell may propagate into the N-central waters by the end of the
weekend into early next week.

$$
Lewitsky