239
AXPZ20 KNHC 150357
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Jun 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Dalila is centered near 17.6N 106.1W at 15/0300
UTC, moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with
gusts to 65 kt. Seas of 12 ft and greater extend outward to 150
nm to the northeast, and along the SW Mexican coast, and up to
180 nm across the southeast quadrant. Peak seas are estimated at
22 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection extend from 09N to
22N between 102W and 111W. Dalila will continue to move towards
the west-northwest and turn toward the west later tonight and
Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dalila is forecast
to remain offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. Dalila is
likely near its peak intensity and will begin to gradually weaken
later tonight or Sunday. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
T.S. Dalila NHC Forecast Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extend from Honduras southward into the eastern
Tropical Pacific along 88W, moving westward 5-10 kt. A 1009 mb
surface low is along the monsoon trough near 09N88W. Scattered
to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N to
14N between 85W and 90W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 13N96W, then resumes
southwest of T.S. Dalila near 12N110W to 09N125W. The ITCZ
extends from 09N125W to beyond 07N140W. For convection information
see the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Dalila, located a few hundred miles south of
Manzanillo, Mexico.

Broad cyclonic flow associated with Dalila dominates the SW
Mexican offshore waters, from Michoacan to the waters of Jalisco
where tropical storm force winds are ongoing. Seas to 12 ft
associated with Dalila have reach the coast across much of this
area. Elsewhere, a broad and weak ridge extends from a 1028 mb
high centered well NW of the area near 38N136W to just west of
the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern is supporting moderate to
locally fresh NW winds across the offshore waters of Baja
California where seas are 5 to 7 ft in S swell. Light to gentle
winds are ongoing in the northern Gulf of California with seas
less than 3 ft. In the southern half of the Gulf winds are
moderate to fresh from the NW and seas are 3 to 5 ft. Gentle to
locally moderate W winds are across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with
7 to 8 ft in SW swell.

For the forecast, Dalila will move to 17.9N 107.4W Sun morning,
18.1N 109.4W Sun evening, weaken to a remnant low near 17.9N
111.1W Mon morning, 17.8N 112.7W Mon evening, 17.8N 114.5W Tue
morning, and dissipate Tue evening. Cross-equatorial southerly
swell will continue to mix with seas generated from Dalila to
impact the waters between Tehuantepec and Baja California Sur
through Sun night. Elsewhere, high pressure well northwest of the
area will support generally moderate to locally fresh N-NW winds
across the Baja California offshore waters through Tue. NW to N
swell will build into the Baja waters Sun through Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A tropical wave moving across Central America along 88W is
described above, and contributing to active weather extending
across much of the waters of El Salvador, Guatemala and Nicaragua.
This activity is producing strong gusty winds and rough seas.
Scatterometer data show gentle to moderate southerly winds over
the Costa Rica offshore waters where seas are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere
winds are light to gentle, and seas are moderate to 7 ft in
strong cross-equatorial southerly swell.

For the forecast, large S to SW swell dominating the regional
waters will slowly subside through early next week. Tropical
Storm Dalila located SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico will move NW
through early Sun then turn more W-NW and weaken Sun through Tue.
Low pressure offshore Costa Rica is expected to drift W to W-NW
through the middle of next week. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to remain active across the regional waters in
association with this system. This system is being monitored for
potential tropical development, and has a low chance of formation
through 48 hours, and a medium chance through 7 days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Dalila, located a few hundred nautical miles
south of Manzanillo, Mexico.

Broad and weak ridging dominates the waters north of 13N,
centered on a 1028 mb high near 38N136W. This pattern is
supporting gentle to moderate N to NE winds north of 08N and
west of 120W, with 5 to 7 ft seas in a mix of N and S swell.
Southerly swell is slowly subsiding between 90W and 110W, where
seas are 7 to 8 ft. Elsewhere south of the monsoon/ITCZ, winds
and seas are mainly moderate.

In the forecast, little change is expected west of 120W except
for increased NW swell north of 28N and east of 130W through
Wed. Conditions east of 120W and associated with T.S. Dalila are
described in the Special Features section above, and will be
dominated by large SW swell through tonight, and mixed E to SE
swell generated by Dalila. Dalila is forecast to spin down to a
20 kt remnant low by Mon evening near 17.8N 112.7W.

$$
Ramos