642
AXPZ20 KNHC 171548
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jun 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central America and southern Mexico Heavy Rainfall Event:
A broad area of low pressure persists over northern Central
America and southern Mexico. This weather pattern, known as a
Central American Gyre (CAG), is a southwest flow that draws
abundant moisture from the Pacific Ocean into the coastal terrain
of Central America and southern Mexico. This pattern will
continue at least through midweek, enhancing heavy rainfall and
strong thunderstorms. This can cause life-threatening conditions
that include flooding and mudslides. Numerous heavy showers and
thunderstorms have already impacted the coasts of Guatemala and
the Mexican state of Chiapas. The main areas impacted by the
heavy rainfall will be northwest Nicaragua, southwest Honduras,
El Salvador, coastal sections of Guatemala and the Mexican state
of Chiapas. Additionally, dangerous surf conditions will impact
these coastal areas through the next few days. Please refer to
your local meteorological and emergency management office
bulletins for more detailed information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the offshore waters of Mexico
near 14N100W to 07N128W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N128W to
09N140W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is
observed north of 10N and east of 107W. Similar convection is
noted from 07N to 13N and between 109W and 119W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on heavy
rainfall.

A 1025 mb high pressure system is located near 32N143W and
extends southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the SW United
States and Mexico result fresh to strong NW winds north of Punta
Eugenia. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft. Gentle to moderate
NW-W winds and seas of 6-8 ft prevail in the remainder of the
Baja California offshore waters. Moderate or weaker winds and
slight seas are prevalent in the Gulf of California waters.

The broad disturbance over SE Mexico and western Central America
results in enhance SW-W flow south of 16N, producing moderate to
fresh winds and seas of 7-9 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W winds, rough to very
rough seas, and numerous heavy showers and strong thunderstorms
will impact the offshore waters of southern Mexico through Fri,
primarily off Chiapas, Oaxaca and southeastern Guerrero. This
inclement weather is associated with a broad area of low pressure
over the region known as the Central American Gyre. Dangerous
surf is also anticipated through Thu along the coastal areas of
this region. Farther north, fresh to strong NW winds and very
rough seas will persist off Baja California Norte through Tue
morning, primarily beyond 120 nm offshore. Large swell of 8 to 10
ft will linger in these waters mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro
through this evening before gradually subsiding through Tue
night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on heavy
rainfall.

The broad disturbance in SE Mexico and western Central America
continues to produce fresh to strong SW to W monsoonal winds
along with seas at 8 to 10 ft, and widely scattered moderate
convection are evident at the offshore waters of Guatemala and El
Salvador. Moderate to fresh SW winds with 6 to 9 ft seas and
isolated thunderstorms are occurring offshore of Nicaragua. Near
the Galapagos Islands and west of Ecuador, gentle to moderate
southerly winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are noted. Mainly gentle
southerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the
offshore waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W winds, rough to very
rough seas and numerous heavy showers and strong thunderstorms
will persist through Fri across the offshore waters of northern
Central America, associated with a broad area of low pressure
known as a Central American Gyre. Dangerous surf is also
anticipated through Thu along the coastal areas of this region.
Farther south, rough seas in moderate to large southerly swell
will continue near the Galapagos Islands and offshore of Ecuador
through Tue night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for convection in the
region.

A 1025 mb high pressure system near 32N143W dominates the waters
north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. North of 20N and west of
110W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas in large
NW to N swell are present, except near 29N122W where winds are
fresh to strong with 9 to 11 ft seas. From the ITCZ and monsoon
trough to 20N and west of 110W, winds are gentle to moderate with
5 to 7 ft seas in mixed swell. East of 110W, SW to W winds are
moderate to fresh with 6 to 9 ft seas in large SW swell. South of
07N, southerly winds are mostly gentle to moderate and seas are
5 to 7 ft seas in moderate southerly swell.

For the forecast, the high pressure and related ridge will
gradually weaken starting midweek, which should allow winds and
seas north of 20N to slowly subside after midweek. will dominate
waters west of 120W into the weekend. East of 110W, SW to W winds
are going to increase to between fresh to strong with seas
building to between 8 and 10 ft by Tue. Scattered moderate
convection is expected to continue near the monsoon trough through
at least midweek. Seas of 7 to 8 ft will hover around 03S west of
the Galapagos Islands through Fri.

$$
Delgado