703
AXPZ20 KNHC 010255
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Sep 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Kiko:
Tropical Storm Kiko is centered near 14.5N 124.6W at 01/0300 UTC,
moving west at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt,
and extend only 30-40 nm from the center. Seas are peaking near
13 ft within 20 nm across the NE quadrant. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is noted from 13.5N to 15N between 123.5W and
125.5W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is elsewhere from
09.5N to 17N between 120.5W and 127W. Kiko will maintain a
general westward motion across the eastern Pacific and move into
the central Pacific basin late this week. The system is forecast
to gradually intensify, and reach hurricane intensity Tuesday
morning.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Kiko NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing a broad area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms south of southern Mexico and into the coast,
from 08N northward to the coasts, between 94.5W and 110W. An
area of low pressure is expected to form from this system within
the next day or two, and it is likely to become a tropical
depression by the middle of this week while moving west-
northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15 kt just offshore of
the southwestern coast of Mexico. There is a medium chance for
tropical formation in the next 48 hours and a high chance for
formation in the next 7 days. Regardless of development, expect
an increase in winds and seas off SW Mexico with this system.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 101W, from 07N northward to
the coast of Mexico, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Please see
SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on this tropical wave and
the possibility of tropical cyclogenesis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N74W to 09.5N80W to 12N97W
to 15N119W, then resumes from 11.5N128W to beyond 09N140W.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 11N
east of 84W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 07N to 21N between 94.5W and 112W, and from 05.5N to
11.5N between 127W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for information on the
potential of tropical cyclone formation off SW Mexico.

Scattered moderate to strong thunderstorms are noted within 240
nm of the coast of southern Mexico from Chiapas to Jalisco,
associated with a tropical wave moving through the area. Strong
gusty and winds and rapidly building seas are likely occurring
near this activity. Outside of this convection, fresh to strong
easterly winds prevail between Puerto Angel and western Guerrero,
where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, high pressure located NW of
the area extends a ridge southeastward to offshore of Baja Sur,
with a surface trough over the Gulf of California. The associated
pressure gradient is producing moderate NW winds across the Baja
waters north of Punta Eugenia, and gentle winds between Punta
Eugenia and the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are 4 to 5 ft seas
in southerly swell across these waters. Light to gentle winds
prevail across the Gulf of California, with seas in the 1-3 ft
range, reaching 4 ft at the entrance of the Gulf. Light winds
prevail elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico.

For the forecast, high pressure will be centered NW of the area
through Tue, with an associated ridge across the Baja California
waters. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure
and a trough over the Gulf of California will support moderate
NW to N winds across the Baja waters through early next week. A
tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms south of southern Mexico. An area of low
pressure is expected to form from this system within the next day
or two, and it is likely to become a tropical depression by the
middle of this week while moving west-northwestward or
northwestward at 10 to 15 kt just offshore of the southwestern
coast of Mexico. There is a medium chance for tropical formation
in the next 48 hours and a high chance of formation in the next 7
days. Regardless of development, expect increasing winds and
seas over the waters off SW Mexico through the middle of the
week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate gap winds are over the Papagayo region, with light to
gentle winds elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. South of the
monsoon trough, moderate SW to W winds prevail. SW swell is
moving through the Central and South American waters, with seas
in the 5 to 7 ft range, reaching 8 ft south and southeast of the
Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, SW swell offshore of Ecuador and Colombia will
subside through Mon. Moderate gap winds are expected across the
Papagayo region through Mon, then will pulse to fresh speeds at
night through the middle of the week. Light to gentle winds will
prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh
S to SW winds are expected south of the monsoon trough through
the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
Tropical Storm Kiko.

Aside from Kiko, high pressure prevails over the waters N of
20N, anchored by a 1022 mb high centered north of the discussion
area near 36N136W. Outside of Kiko, moderate NE to E winds
prevail across the waters N of 10N and W of 120W. Light to gentle
winds are N of 10N and E of 120W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds
are found S of 10N. Seas across the forecast waters are in the
4-7 ft range, reaching 8 ft S of 10N between 100W and 120W.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Kiko is expected to move to
14.4N 125.8W Mon morning, 14.3N 127.4W late Mon afternoon,
strengthen to a hurricane near 14.2N 129.0W Tue morning,
reach near 14.1N 130.6W late Tue afternoon, and near 14.1N
134.2W late Wed afternoon. Kiko will change little in intensity
as it moves to near 14.1N 138.1W late Thu afternoon, and expected
to cross 140W by late Thu afternoon. Elsewhere, S to SW swell
over the waters south of 10N will support rough seas south of 10N
between 100W and 120W.

$$
Stripling