489
AXPZ20 KNHC 080830
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Nov 8 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NW Significant Swell Event: Recent satellite altimeter data, and
buoy observations offshore of southern California show that
large NW swell continues to subside across the regional waters.
A small area of seas to 12 ft still lingers offshore of Baja
California Norte north of 29N, and is expected to subside below
12 ft before sunrise. Another pulse of large NW swell will
propagate into the NW waters Sat night through Mon morning, with
seas greater than 12 ft spreading into the NW waters late Sat
afternoon through Mon morning.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 11N101W to 08.5N115W.
The ITCZ continues from 08.5N115W to 09N130W to beyond
08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 11.5N
between 85W and 95W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 08.5N to 13.5N between 100W and 110W,
and from 07.5N to 11N between 110W and 137W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate N-NW winds continue across the waters off of the
Baja California peninsula tonight, then become NE and extend
southward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Large NW swell is
producing seas of 8 to 12 ft across the waters north of Punta
Eugenia, and 7 to 10 ft southward to the Revillagigedo Islands.
Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the open waters off
Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas are 4 to 6
ft in mixed NW and SW swell. Gentle W to NW winds prevail
throughout the Gulf of California, where seas are 3 ft or less.

For the forecast, large NW swell moving through the Baja
California waters will propagate across the remainder of the
Mexican offshore waters tonight through Sun. Seas will subside
from N to S starting Sat morning. Moderate or weaker winds are
expected to continue across the Baja waters through early next
week. The next gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region is expected to begin with strong northerly
winds Sun night. Winds will likely reach gale-force by early Mon
morning and continue through Tue night before diminishing below
gale-force Wed. This event is expected to produce a very large
area of gale-force winds to around 40 kt extending south and
southwestward of Tehuantepec to near 13N96.5W by Mon night, when
seas are expected to build 12-18 ft. Mariners should plan
accordingly.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent satellite derived scatterometer data showed Light to
gentle winds prevailing across the area waters N of the monsoon
trough, roughly along 10N. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds are
south of the monsoon trough, and are strongest across the coastal
waters of Ecuador. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range in SW swell
over the discussion waters. Scattered heavy showers are occurring
across the central Gulf of Panama.

For the forecast, NE gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo
region will increase to moderate speeds this morning and then
pulse to fresh speeds Sat night and Sun night, before freshening
Mon evening through Tue evening as strong high pressure builds
north of the region. Fresh northerly winds may briefly occur
across the waters from the Gulf of Fonseca westward across the
coastal waters of El Salvador Tue afternoon and night. Otherwise,
relatively mild conditions are expected throughout the regional
waters through Mon. Seas will be dominated by a mix of moderate
SW and NW swell into early next week. The next significant
Tehuantepec gap wind event is expected by Mon and will generate
large northerly seas moving into the outer waters of Guatemala
Mon night through Wed morning.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on large NW
swell across the area waters tonight, and the next upcoming pulse
of large NW swell that will move into the NW waters this weekend.

High pressure dominates the waters N of 20N and W of 120W,
anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 33N129W. Light to
gentle winds are N of 24N and W of 120W. Seas are 7 to 10 ft
there in slowly subsiding NW swell. The pressure gradient between
the high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ
is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds from 10N to 21N and
west of 120W. The NW swell moving across the regional waters is
mixing with NE waves being generated in the trade wind zone from
10N to 18N and west of 120W, where seas are 8 to 11 ft. Moderate
to fresh N winds are north of 27N between 120W and 125W, where
seas are 10 to 12 ft in NW swell. Moderate to fresh southerly winds
prevail south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, where seas are 7 to 9
ft in mixed NW and SW swell. Seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range
elsewhere to the east.

For the forecast, the NW swell moving through the north and
western waters will propagate southeastward through Sat night
before subsiding. Seas greater than 8 ft will cover much of the
waters N of 10N and W of 110W overnight before starting to
slowly subside. Another pulse of NW swell, associated with a
frontal system expected to stall across the NW waters, will begin
to move into the NW waters Sat and spread southeastward into
early next week. Fresh to strong SW winds occurring ahead of this
front will move into the far NW waters Sat morning, then
gradually diminish by Sat night as the front reaches near 29N138W
and stalls.

$$
Stripling