828
AXPZ20 KNHC 261523
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Aug 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1440 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Iselle is centered near 22.2N 124.0W at 26/1500
UTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with
gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently around 21 ft (6.5 m).
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is confined to
within in the NE quadrant. Iselle is moving toward the west-
northwest and this general motion is expected to continue over
the next few days. Steady weakening is expected, and Iselle is
forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by tonight. Swells
generated by Iselle will continue to affect the west coast of
the Baja California Peninsula for a couple more days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Iselle NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Central East Pacific (Invest EP93): A broad area of 1007 mb low
pressure located well south of southwestern Mexico near 09N107W
is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms and is
gradually becoming better organized. Scattered to numerous
moderate to strong convection spans a large area including well
away from the system along the monsoon trough from 02N to 15N
between 88W and 117W. Associated winds are currently 20 to 25 kt
with seas of 7 to 9 ft at most. Environmental conditions are
expected to support gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so
while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, well offshore
of Mexico. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone
formation within the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest
NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website:
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details.

Western East Pacific: An elongated, broad area of low pressure
located well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands in the
vicinity of 11.5N135W is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this week or early this weekend while the
system drifts to the northeast, then turns westward. This system
has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within the
next 48 hours, and a high chance within the next 7 days.
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 87.5W north of 05N to across
portions of eastern El Salvador and along the Caribbean coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula, moving slowly westward around 5 kt. Any
nearby convection is described above and below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 1006 mb low pressure near the
northern coast of Colombia in the SW Caribbean Sea at 10.5N76W to
10N88W to low pressure, Invest EP93, near 09N107W to 15N116W,
then resumes south of Tropical Iselle from 13.5N55W to beyond
10N140W. Other than the convection mentioned above, isolated to
widely scattered moderate to strong is noted from 02N to 10N
between 77W and 88W, and within 360 nm south-southwest of the
monsoon trough between 118W and 140W. Similar convection is
within 150 nm north of the monsoon trough between 135W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
low pressure Invest EP93 near 09N107W with the high chance for
tropical cyclone formation.

Tropical Storm Iselle is well beyond the offshore waters of Baja
California. Outer associated swells of 7 to 9 ft are impacting
the Baja California waters near the outer offshore boundary.
Meanwhile, fresh to strong northerly gap winds continue to blow
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 8 ft. Winds are moderate
or weaker elsewhere with mainly moderate seas, except slight in
the Gulf of California. Active showers and thunderstorms are
present over the outer offshore waters areas of southern and
southwestern Mexico as described above with locally higher winds
and seas possible there.

For the forecast, the area of low pressure, Invest EP93, which
has a high chance for tropical cyclone formation, will move
west-northwest at 10 to 15 kt with the center forecast to stay
beyond the offshore waters. However, outer winds and seas are
forecast to impact portions of the outer offshore waters of
southwestern Mexico to the Revillagigedo Islands late Thursday
through at least Sat night. Meanwhile, outer rough swells
associated with Tropical Storm Iselle will subside through
tonight as the system continues to pull away from the offshore
waters of Baja California while weakening. Fresh to strong
northerly gap winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec through the next several days with locally rough seas
there at times. A surge of fresh to strong southeasterly winds
likely associated with convective complexes may move up the
central and northern Gulf of California both Fri and Sat nights.
Looking ahead, another area of low pressure could form this
weekend well to the south of southwestern Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong easterly gap winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo
well downwind to near 10N92W with 5 to 7 ft seas. Winds are
moderate or weaker across the offshore waters, with moderate
seas, except slight near the coasts of Colombia and eastern
Panama. Active showers and thunderstorms are present over the
outer offshore waters areas from Colombia northward as described
above with locally higher winds and seas possible there.

For the forecast, easterly fresh to strong gap winds will continue
to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the upcoming weekend,
with associated moderate to fresh winds extending well downwind to
the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly
winds may freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend. Winds
will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with mainly moderate seas.
Convection will remain active near the monsoon trough.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information about
Tropical Storm Iselle, low pressure Invest EP93 with the high chance
of tropical cyclone formation, and another broad area of low
pressure in the far west-central waters with the potential for
tropical cyclone formation.

Otherwise, mainly moderate winds prevail north of 12N. South of
12N mainly moderate to locally fresh winds prevail across much of
the open waters with very active convection present. Seas are
mainly moderate, except rough near and south of the Equator
between 115W and 135W.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Iselle will become post-tropical
and move to 22.5N 125.3W this evening, weaken to a remnant low near
23.2N 127.0W Thu morning, 23.9N 128.8W Thu evening, 24.5N 130.7W Fri
morning, 25.0N 132.4W Fri evening, and dissipate Sat morning. Other
than the two remaining Special Features areas above, large
southwesterly swell will impact the southern waters through Thu
night before decaying. Looking ahead, much larger southwesterly
swell may impact the southern waters by early next week. Little
change is forecast elsewhere away from the Special Features areas.

$$
Lewitsky