092
AXPZ20 KNHC 151546
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Jun 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Dalila is centered near 18.2N 107.8W at 2100 UTC,
moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt. Seas of 12 ft and greater extend outward to 135
nm to the NE, and just offshore of Cabo Corrientes, 150 nm SE,
105 nm SW, and 120 nm across the NW quadrants. Peak seas are
estimated at 20 ft or 6 meters. Dalila has begun to weaken as it
is now entraining drier more stable air from the NW, and moving
into progressively cooler water temperatures. Convection has
diminished considerably in the past several hours. Scattered
moderate convection now extends within 120 nm across the south
semicircle. Dalila will continue to weaken as it moves towards
the west-northwest through this evening then turn toward the
west later tonight through Tue. On the forecast track, the
center of Dalila is forecast to move away from the southwestern
coast of Mexico today and move across the Revillagigedo Islands
early Mon. Dalila is expected to become a 35 kt post tropical
system near 18.3N 109.1W this evening, and diminish further to a
20 kt low center near 18.2N 114.4W Tue morning. Please refer to
the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml
and the latest T.S. Dalila NHC Forecast Advisory and Public
Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extend from interior portions of the Yucatan
Peninsula southward into the eastern Tropical Pacific along
88W-89W, moving westward 5 kt. A 1009 mb surface low is along
the monsoon trough near 10.5N88.5W. Scattered to numerous
moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 13.5N between
86W and 94W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to low pres 1009 mb near
10.5N88.5W to 13N103W to 10N22. The ITCZ extends from 10N122W to
beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 02S and E
of 84.5W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from
04N to 13.5N between 92W and 101W, from 10N to 13.5N between
101W and 115W, and from 07.5N to 11N W of 132W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Dalila.

Broad cyclonic flow associated with Dalila is still dominating
the SW Mexican offshore waters, from Colima and Jalisco to the
Revillagigedo Islands. Strong SE winds to 30 kt continue along
the coast of Jalisco. Seas to 12 ft associated with Dalila
continue to affect the coastal waters across this area.
Elsewhere, a broad and weak ridge extends from a 1026 mb high
centered well NW of the area near 38N133W to well offshore of
Baja California near 22N121W. This pattern is supporting
moderate to locally fresh NW winds across the offshore waters of
Baja California where seas are 5 to 7 ft in S swell. Light to
gentle winds are ongoing in the northern Gulf of California with
seas less than 3 ft. In the southern half of the Gulf winds are
moderate from the S and SW with seas of 3 to 6 ft in S swell.
Southerly swell from Dalila is producing seas of 6 to 8 ft
between Cabo San Lucas and Las Tres Marias. Gentle to locally
moderate NW winds are across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with 7 to 8
ft in SW swell.

For the forecast, Dalila has begun to weaken and will move W-NW
and away from the coast of SW Mexico, reaching near 18.3N 109.1W
this evening as a 35 kt post-tropical system, then turn more
westerly and reach near 18.2N 112.5W Mon evening, then dissipate
near 115W bu Tue evening. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will
continue to mix with seas generated from Dalila to impact the
waters between Tehuantepec and Baja California Sur through
tonight. Elsewhere, high pressure well northwest of the area will
support generally moderate to locally fresh N-NW winds across
the Baja California offshore waters through Thu night. NW to N
swell will build into the Baja waters Mon evening through Thu
night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A tropical wave moving across Central America along 88W-89W is
described above, and contributing to active weather extending
across much of the waters of El Salvador, Guatemala and Nicaragua.
This activity is producing strong gusty winds and rough seas.
An associated 1009 mb low offshore of Papagayo along 88.5W is
producing fresh to locally strong easterly winds across the
Papagayo region, and moderate southerly winds over the Costa
Rica offshore waters. Seas are 6-8 ft in S swell across this area.
Elsewhere across the remainder Central America offshore waters N
of 04N, winds are gentle, and seas are moderate to 8 ft in
strong cross- equatorial S swell. Winds S of 04N and between
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands are moderate from the S and SE,
with and seas 6 to 7 ft in S swell.

For the forecast, large S to SW swell dominating the regional
waters will slowly subside through early next week. Tropical
Storm Dalila located SW of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico will continue
to weaken and turn more W tonight through Tue, moving away from
the coast. Low pressure offshore NW Costa Rica is expected to
drift W to W-NW through the middle of next week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of the low,
and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week
while moving westward to west-northwestward just offshore of the
coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain active across
the regional waters in association with this system. This system
is being monitored for potential tropical development, and has a
low chance of formation through 48 hours, and a medium chance
through 7 days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Dalila, located a few hundred nautical miles
southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

Broad and weak ridging centered on a 1026 mb high near 38N133W
dominates the waters north of 15N and W of 120W. This pattern is
supporting gentle to moderate N to NE winds north of 10N and
west of 120W, with 5 to 7 ft seas in a mix of N and S swell.
Southerly swell is slowly subsiding between 90W and 110W, where
seas are 7 to 8 ft. Elsewhere south of the monsoon/ITCZ, winds
and seas are mainly moderate.

In the forecast, little change is expected west of 120W except
for a modest increase in NW swell north of 26N and east of 130W
through Thu. Conditions east of 120W and associated with T.S.
Dalila are described in the Special Features section above, and
will be dominated by mixed E to SE swell generated by Dalila.
Dalila is forecast to continue to weaken as it moves westward across
the Revillagigedo Islands tonight through Mon and dissipate near
18N 115W by Tue evening.

$$
Stripling