027
AXPZ20 KNHC 041010
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Oct 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Octave is centered near 14.2N 123.2W at 04/0900
UTC, moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are 20 ft. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is observed from 12N to 16N between 121W and 126W.
The tropical storm is expected to slow and move northward on
Sunday, and then turn slowly eastward early next week. Slight
strengthening is possible through the weekend.

Please read the latest NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Octave NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Offshore of the Southwestern Coast of Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure a few hundred miles off the southwestern coast of Mexico
continue to become better organized this evening. However, recent
satellite-derived wind data depict a circulation that remains
somewhat broad, but if current trends persist, advisories on a
tropical depression could be initiated on Saturday. The system is
forecast to move very slowly west-northwestward, remaining
offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next
several days. This system has a high chance for tropical cyclone
formation within the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, a
gale warning is ongoing in association with this system.
Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor
the progress of this system. For additional information on this
system, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.

Please read the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml and the latest NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 11N90W to 15N112W,
then resumes near 11N126W and continues to 09N140W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is from 04N to 14N E of 99W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 10N between 134W
and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Invest EP99 that has a high chance for tropical cyclone
formation within the next 48 hours.

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
supporting moderate to fresh NW to N winds north of Cabo San
Lazaro and light to gentle winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo
San Lucas. Light and variable winds and slight seas prevail in
the Gulf of California. Winds and seas are on increase across the
Mexican offshore forecast waters between Puerto Angel and Manzanillo
due to the presence of EP99.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California this weekend supporting
moderate to fresh NW to N winds N of Cabo San Lazaro, and gentle
to moderate winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas.
Marine conditions are forecast to deteriorate across the Mexican
offshore waters S of Cabo Corrientes this weekend due to a
developing tropical cyclone. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are
expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through tonight.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Unsettled weather conditions persist across the offshore waters
of Central America and Colombia. Meanwhile, a weak pressure
gradient continues to influence the region, sustaining gentle to
moderate S to SW winds S of the monsoon trough and light to
gentle winds to the N of it. Moderate seas in SW swell dominate
the area.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected
south of the monsoon trough into early next week. Southerly
swell will continue to propagate across the region, with a new
set of long period SW swell reaching the Galapagos Island tonight
into Sun. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will persist
north of the monsoon trough.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Octave, and on Invest EP99 located offshore of SW
Mexico with the potential for tropical cyclone formation.

Outside of Octave, a dissipating cold front extends from Baja
California Norte near 30N114W and extends SW to near 26N125W.
Mainly moderate N to NE winds and rough seas in NW swell follow
the front. Farther south, a surface trough is along 137W.
Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are south of the
monsoon trough W of 110W. Moderate to rough seas are noted within
these winds. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate
seas prevail.

For the forecast, Octave will move to 14.6N 123.9W this afternoon,
15.2N 124.1W Sun morning, 15.6N 123.8W Sun afternoon, 15.8N
123.0W Mon morning, 15.9N 121.9W Mon afternoon, and 15.5N 120.5W
Tue morning. Octave will weaken to a tropical depression over
near 15.0N 118.5W early Wed. The area of NW swell will continue
to spread southward and weaken by Sun. Meanwhile, a new set of
large southerly swell will propagate toward the equator during
the weekend and into early next week.

$$
Ramos