226
AXPZ20 KNHC 202038
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Nov 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Large NW swell to arrive over the northern waters:
A cold front moving across our NW waters will enter the Baja
California Norte offshore zones tonight with only moderate NW
winds. However, a secondary push of cold air accompanied by an
area of low pressure will quickly follow Fri night through Sat
night with fresh NW to W winds and scattered showers-isolated
thunderstorms west of Baja California Norte. Large NW swell will
then continue over the waters northwest of Cabo San Lucas with
seas exceeding 8 ft will occur north of 23N west of 117W by late
on Fri. Very large seas of 12 to 14 ft containing wave periods of
12-14 seconds are expected north of 27N between 118W-130W also by
late on Fri. Seas across this area are forecast to subside to
below 12 ft on Sat, and to below 8 ft early by Tue.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website-
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 09N79W
to 08N111W, where it transitions to the ITCZ extending to beyond
07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
north of 05N east of 83W as well as from 05N-08N west of 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on an
upcoming large swell event.

Winds are moderate or lighter over forecast waters. Seas are 2-3
ft over the Gulf of California and 3-7 ft over the Pacific
waters.

For the forecast, a cold front is forecast to enter the Baja
California Norte offshore waters tonight with only moderate NW
winds. However, a secondary push of cold air accompanied by an
area of low pressure will quickly follow Fri night through Sat
night with fresh NW to W winds and scattered showers-isolated
thunderstorms west of Baja California Norte. Large NW swell will
then continue over the waters northwest of Cabo San Lucas until
subsiding on Tue. Additionally, high pressure over the Gulf of
America will induce fresh to strong N gap winds over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec from Sat night to Sun night. Elsewhere, winds and
seas are quiescent.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region are NE moderate to fresh.
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or lighter. Seas are 3-6 ft across
the forecast waters. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted north of 05N east of 83W.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected
over the Gulf of Papagayo region into early next week. Moderate
or lighter winds are forecast elsewhere during the forecast
period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on an
upcoming large swell event.

A cold front reaches our forecast waters at 30N123W and extends
west-southwestward to 27N136W. Winds behind the front are N
moderate to fresh with seas 6-8 ft. A large pressure gradient
between a 1033 mb high near 34N145W and lower pressure over the
ITCZ is forcing fresh to strong NE trades from 07N-23N west of
120W with seas 8-10 ft in mixed wind waves and N swell.
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are 5-7 ft.

The cold front will progress quickly southeastward tonight and
Fri, and should dissipate by Sat morning as it reaches 20N. Peak
winds behind the front will be NW fresh to strong north of 25N on
Fri before diminishing below fresh by Sat morning. See details
in the Special Features about the large swell following the
front. As the high northwest of our waters diminishes, the trades
will weaken on Fri and Sat to moderate to fresh and remain that
way through early next week. However, seas will continue near
8-10 ft in the tradewind belt due to reinforcement by the NW
swell.

$$
Landsea