637
AXPZ20 KNHC 111443
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Dec 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N92W to 09N110W to
08N124W. The ITCZ continues from 08N124W to beyond 08N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N east of
82W, and from 08N to 20N between between 119W and 132W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong gap winds are over and downstream the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, with seas of 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, a ridge extends
from high pressure located N of the area to across the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California. The pressure gradient between
this ridge and a trough over western Mexico is supporting
moderate winds in the central and southern Gulf of California,
as well as near Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle winds and
moderate seas in long period mixed swells are noted across the
remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, with slight to moderate
seas in the Gulf of California and nearshore SW Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds will
prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri morning, then
moderate to fresh through Sat morning. Winds over Tehuantepec
will strengthen on Sat afternoon and night, possibly reaching
gale- force Sun night through at least Mon night. Mainly gentle
to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere,
locally fresh near Cabo Corrientes and in the Gulf of California
through the end of the week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh strong winds are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo.
Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of 05N. Gentle to moderate
southerly winds prevail S of 05N. Seas are mainly moderate in
mixed SW and NW swell.

For the forecast, moderate N winds will pulse in the Gulf of
Panama. Otherwise, mainly gentle winds will prevail N of the
monsoon trough over the next several days, except pulsing to
moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Papagayo, locally strong at
times. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail S of monsoon trough.
Moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell are expected over the
regional waters through the weekend and into early next week.
Seas may build offshore Guatemala by early next week due to a
possible Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure dominates the waters N of the ITCZ. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ and monsoon trough is supporting
moderate winds N of the ITCZ to around 20N and west of 120W.
Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range over these waters. Gentle to
moderate winds, and seas of 4 to 7 ft, prevail elsewhere over the
discussion waters, except near 30N140W where new NW swell is
building seas to around 8-9 ft.

For the forecast, the new set of long period NW swell is
forecast to spread SE of 30N140W today with seas to 8-9 ft over
these waters before subsiding by the end of the week. The
pressure gradient may tighten by the end of the weekend with
trades just N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ freshening into
early next week.

$$
AL