417
AXPZ20 KNHC 162103
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jun 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The recently upgraded Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E is
centered near 10.6N 91.7W at 16/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest
at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. At this time,
scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection prevails N of
04N and E of 101W. Rough seas prevail within 30 nm in the
northern semicircle of the low. A turn toward the northwest is
expected later today or tonight, and this motion is forecast to
continue for the next few days. PTC Five-E may produce rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, across
coastal sections of El Salvador, Guatemala and the Mexican states
of Chiapas, Tabasco and Veracruz. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches, with maximum totals of 12 inches, are possible across the
Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce
life threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain. Swells generated by the system are expected to
begin affecting the coast of southern Mexico in a day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office for more details.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Five-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The southern portion of a tropical wave extends from the
Caribbean Sea southward along 82W to across western Panama N of
05N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate
to strong convection is N of 03N and E of 82W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 10N86W to 09N124W.
The ITCZ extends from 09N124W to beyond 09N140W. Aside from the
convection related to PTC Five-E, scattered moderate convection
is noted within 60 nm of the ITCZ and W of 117W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the now
upgraded Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E.

Elsewhere, the remnants of Dalila at 1010 mb are analyzed near
18N111W. Some lingering winds of 20 to 25 kt are possible per
recent ASCAT scatterometer data, with decaying rough seas.
Surface ridging is present west of Baja California with moderate
or weaker winds. Fresh to strong SE to S winds are in the Gulf
of California N of 29N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere
including offshore SW and southern Mexico. Moderate seas prevail
across the offshore waters away from the remnants of Dalila. In
the Gulf of California, moderate seas are in the southern Gulf,
and slight seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, other than the area of PTC Five-E, the
remnants of Dalila will continue to spin down and dissipate over
the next couple of days while associated winds and seas diminish.
Cross- equatorial southerly swell will continue to impact the
waters between Tehuantepec and Baja California Sur through early
afternoon. Elsewhere, high pressure well northwest of the area
will support pulsing moderate to fresh N-NW winds across the Baja
California Norte offshore waters through the week. Rough NW to N
swell will build into the Baja waters this evening through the
week. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will prevail across the
Gulf of California tonight through Tue, with strong speeds in the
northern Gulf through this afternoon. Winds will be mainly
moderate or weaker elsewhere through the week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please read the Special Features section for details on PTC
Five-E.

Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere from offshore
Colombia northward, with moderate seas. Moderate to fresh
southerly winds are offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands,
with moderate to rough seas in southerly swell.

For the forecast, other than PTC Five-E, which may bring
increasing winds and seas as well as heavy rainfall described
above, moderate to fresh winds will prevail offshore Ecuador to
the Galapagos Islands through the week. Winds will be moderate or
weaker offshore Colombia northward, except pulse to moderate to
fresh in the Papagayo region starting Thu morning. Meanwhile,
rough seas off Ecuador will subside slightly through today then
remain moderate through the remainder of the week. Moderate seas
will be mainly offshore Colombia northward through mid-week,
higher near PTC Five-E, then will subside by the end of the
week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on
PTC Five-E.

Broad and weak ridging extend from a high well NW of the
discussion waters to across the open waters north of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ and west of the remnants of Dalila centered near
19N110.5W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the open
waters, both north and south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ,
locally fresh south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Seas are
mainly moderate across the open waters in mixed southerly and
northerly swells.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will sink
slightly southward through the week. A slight increase in winds
is expected over the NW waters through the week, while winds
weaken to the west and southwest of the approaching remnants of
Dalila during the next few days. A slight increase in seas is
expected across the northern waters east of 130W tonight through
Thu as new N to NE swell moves into the regional waters,
spreading west-southwestward to 140W by the end of the week.

$$
ERA