754
AXPZ20 KNHC 120842
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue May 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N74W to 09N86W to 03.5N92W
to 09N110W to 05N119W to 08N134W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 10N E of 101W,
from 03N to 14N between 105W and 113W, and from 03N to 11N W of
113W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad ridge extends from 1022 mb high pressure well west-
northwest of the area near 33N134W to offshore of Cabo
Corrientes. A surface trough is analyzed from near the SW
Arizona/California border across the Gulf of California and into
the western Mexican coast. This pattern supports gentle to
moderate NW to N winds across the Baja waters from Punta Eugenia
southward to near 20N, and light to gentle NW winds offshore
Baja California Norte. Seas offshore Baja California are mainly
5-6 ft in mixed NW and SW swell. Light and variable winds with
1-2 ft seas prevail across the Gulf of California, except for 3
to 4 ft seas across the entrance. Mainly light to gentle variable
winds with 5 ft seas dominated by SW swell cover the remainder
of the SW and southern Mexico offshore waters to Puerto Angel.

A small area of scattered showers and thunderstorms occurring
across coastal portions of Chiapas before midnight has shifted
southwestward across the Gulf of Tehuantepec in recent hours and
exploded into a large cluster of intense thunderstorms that have
expanded further southwest to offshore of Puerto Angel. This
occurred just as strong gap winds were spilling into the
Tehuantepec waters. Strong and gusty winds to gale-force and
rough seas are very likely to by accompanying this activity.

For the forecast, strong northerly gap winds have begun across
the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight and will then pulse to near 30 kt
each night through early Thu, reaching near gale-force at times
during the late night and early morning hours, as a cold front
moves across SE Mexico. Seas will build to around 10 ft at night with
the stronger winds. Fresh to locally strong SW winds will
briefly develop in the northern Gulf of California Tue evening
and night as a trough develops there. Otherwise, mainly gentle
to moderate winds will prevail across the remainder of the
offshore waters, increasing to moderate to fresh offshore Baja
California Wed through Fri as ridging west of the Baja peninsula
strengthens. Winds may increase to fresh to strong well offshore
Baja California Norte this weekend. Mainly 5-7 ft seas in mixed
SW and NW swell will dominate the offshore waters, potentially
building to 8 ft offshore Baja California Norte by Fri night,
then to 8-11 ft late Sat.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong E winds are offshore southern Nicaragua and the
Papagayo region and extend offshore to 88W tonight. Seas are 6-7
ft with these winds. Moderate NW to N winds prevail across the
Gulf of Panama, where seas are 3-5 ft. Light to gentle winds and
4-6 ft seas in S-SW swell dominate the remainder of the offshore
waters of Central and northern South America. Active convection
continues across the offshore waters N of 01N and into the
coastal waters of Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia as described
above.

For the forecast, fresh gap winds will pulse to locally strong
offshore of the Papagayo region through Thu night, mainly at
night into the early morning hours, building seas locally to
rough at times. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate
seas in southerly swell are expected through the remainder of the
week and into the upcoming weekend. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected to remain active across the waters south of 09N
through Wed evening.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge extends from 1022 mb high pressure near 33N134W to
offshore Cabo Corrientes, dominating the waters from 10N to 23N and
W of 110W with gentle to moderate trade winds. Mainly gentle
winds are elsewhere, including S of the monsoon trough. Seas are
7-8 ft in mixed swell across the zone of moderate trade winds
from 10N to 17N and W of 120W. Seas are mainly 5-7 ft in mixed
SW and NW swell across the remainder of the open waters, except
7-8 ft in S-SW swell S of the Equator and W of 102W.

For the forecast, the ridge has begin to weaken as the high
center is drifting northward tonight, ahead of an approaching
weak cold front. The associated weakened pressure gradient will
support moderate trades, fresh at times, N of the ITCZ to about
22N and W of 120W through Tue, with seas of 6-8 ft across this
area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will
prevail elsewhere during the week. New high pressure will begin
to build across the region from the NW early Wed through Fri to
produce fresh trade winds S of 23N and W of 125W, with seas
building 7-9 ft. N winds are expected to strengthen slightly to
fresh to strong across the NE and north-central waters by the
weekend with seas building there as a result. Rough seas to
around 8 ft in southerly swell will continue across the far
southwestern waters S of the Equator to 120W, and will gradually
spread eastward in coverage to near 100W today. Seas of around 8
ft may persist across this same area through the end of the week
and into the weekend.

$$
Stripling