540
AXPZ20 KNHC 081546
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Sep 8 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Marie is no longer considered a tropical storm due to a lack of
deep convection, and is now post-tropical. Marie is centered
near 25.8N 127.4W at 08/1500 UTC, moving west- northwest at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Despite no longer
being a tropical storm, maximum sustained wind speed is still 35
kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are near 19 ft. No significant
thunderstorm activity is evident near Marie, and the low level
center remains fully exposed due to strong shear aloft. Marie is
expected to turn more northwestward as it finds itself wedged
between a cutoff low descending from the northeast Pacific and a
high pressure system centered over the southwestern US. Swells
generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of the coast
of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California for the
next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is entering the eastern Pacific this morning, and
extends along 79W north of 04N through central Panama. The wave
is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is evident from 04N to 06N between 80W and 82W.

A tropical wave has its axis along 91W north of 03N. It is
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Convection near the tropical wave
is described below in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section.

A tropical wave from 05N to 17N has been relocated to 111W. It
is moving westward at about 10 kt. Convection near the tropical wave
is described below in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 08N100W to 1007 mb
low pressure near 15N112W, and to beyond 10N140W. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 10N to 14N
between 85W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N
to 15N between 110W to 115W, and from 10N to 15N between 122W and
129W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient across the region due to the presence of
Tropical Storm Marie to the west of the Baja California Peninsula
is supporting mainly gentle to moderate NW winds off Baja, and
light to gentle winds along with slight seas in the Gulf of
California. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active off
Chiapas and Oaxaca, beyond 90 nm. Otherwise, moderate to fresh
winds are pulsing in Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, the showers and thunderstorms off Chiapas and
Oaxaca are associated with broad area of low pressure located
several hundred miles southwest of southwestern Mexico. This
activity has the potential for gradual development, and a tropical
depression could form later this week while the system moves
generally west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Regardless of
development, this system will bring at least moderate to strong
winds to the offshore waters of Jalisco and the Revillagigedo
Islands today through Wed night. Otherwise, fresh to locally
strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of
Papagayo region. Seas there are 5 to 7 ft in southwest swell.
Gentle to moderate S to SE winds are across the offshores between
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands along with slight to moderate
seas. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds along with slight to
moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
fresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate to rough seas across
the Gulf of Papagayo region through Sat. Meanwhile, moderate to
fresh southerly winds are expected over the waters between
Ecuador and the Galapagos today through Wed night, then
diminishing some afterward. Moderate or lighter winds are
expected elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information
on Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie.

Outside from marine impacts attributed to Marie north of 22N,
moderate or weaker winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over
the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific.

For the forecast, Marie will become a remnant low and move to 26.8N
128.2W this evening, 28.7N 129.4W Wed morning, 31.2N 131.1W Wed
evening, and dissipate Thu morning.

Long-period northwest to north swell is merging with cross-
equatorial Southern Hemispheric swell south of about 00N and
between 104W and 122W. This swell area is forecast to expand
eastward through Wed as the primary swell direction becomes
northwest to north. Seas from this swell are expected to be 7 to
9 ft. To the east, showers and thunderstorms associated with a
broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of southwestern Mexico are showing signs of
organization. Gradual development of this system is likely, and a
tropical depression is expected to form later this week while
the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt.

$$
Christensen