041
AXPZ20 KNHC 140346
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Oct 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northwest Colombia northwestward
across central Panama, to northern Costa Rica, to 12N86W to low
pressure near 14N95W 1007 mb to 10N105W to 80N114W and to
08N124W, where its transitions to the ITCZ to 08N124W to 09N130W
and to beyond to 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between 86W-87W,
and within 30 nm of the trough between 87W-90W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A trough extends from southern Nevada south-southwestward to
the the northwest part of the northern Gulf of California while
broad high pressure is west of Baja California. A tight gradient
associated to the trough is producing fresh to strong southwest
winds over the northern Gulf waters. To the west, the gradient
between the trough and high pressure to the northwest is leading
to moderate northwest winds offshore Baja California Norte, with
resultant northwest swell generating seas of up to 8 ft
impacting the waters around Guadalupe Island and the offshore
areas beyond 120 nm off Baja California Norte. Elsewhere over
the Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds and moderate
seas dominate.

For the forecast, a trough over the northern Gulf of California
will support fresh to strong southwest winds over the northern
Gulf tonight. Northerly swell near Guadalupe Island off Baja
California Norte will subside through this evening, but build
back into the region Tue night into Wed in the wake of a weak
cold front that will move across Baja California and the Gulf of
California. To the south, broad low pressure is located offshore
Guatemala. Little development is expected over the next few days
while the low drifts to off southern Mexico, but strong northerly
gap winds will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting Tue.
These higher winds may eventually contribute to environmental
conditions that are more conducive for tropical development of
the low later in the week. There is a medium chance that a
tropical depression could form while the system drifts northward,
then northwestward, near or just offshore of the southern coast
of Mexico during the latter half of the week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection seen from 14N to
15N between 92W and 93W is part of a broad area of low pressure
that is located a couple hundred nm south-southwest of Guatemala
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The 00 UTC
surface analysis has a 1007 mb low along the monsoon trough near
14N94W. Otherwise, gentle to moderate southwest winds along with
seas of 4 to 6 ft continue over the regional waters.

For the forecast, environmental conditions appear conducive for
development of the aforementioned broad area of low pressure
during the latter half of the week, and a tropical depression
could form as the system drifts northward, then northwestward,
near or just offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. At a
minimum, there may be fresh winds and rough seas off El Salvador
and Guatemala Thu and Fri as the low moves through the region.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad ridging prevails north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, with
moderate to locally fresh north winds across these waters. Seas
are 5 to 7 ft in this region, except for higher seas of
8 to 9 ft north of 25N between 115W and 125W, where north swell
is propagating. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly winds
are south of the ITCZ along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Moderate
south to southwest winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are south of the
monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the swell north of 25N between 115W and 125W
will subside late today. A cold front will move southeastward
across the waters north of 20N Tue through Thu. A new set of
long-period 8 to 10 ft swell will follow the front over the
waters north of 25N through Wed night. Looking ahead, the
gradient between high pressure building north of the area behind
the front and relatively lower pressure in the region of the
ITCZ will support moderate fresh northeast winds north of 10N
and west of 130W Thu and Fri. Farther south, weak low pressure is
likely to form along the monsoon trough between 115W and 120W
through Wed.

$$
Aguirre