794
AXPZ20 KNHC 222142
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Aug 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 85.5W, from 08N northward
through Nicaragua and Honduras into the western Caribbean Sea.
Nearby convection is described below in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 101W, from 08N northward
into south-central Mexico, moving toward the west at 15 to 20 kt.
Nearby convection is described below in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section. An area of showers and thunderstorms located several
hundred miles south of southwestern Mexico is associated with a
tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form during the early or middle portions of next week while
it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph well off
the coast of Mexico. There is a low chance of development within
the next 48 hours, and a medium chance within the next 7 days.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 115W, from 07N to 18N,
moving toward the west at 15 to 20 kt. Nearby convection is
described below in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 13N105W to beyond
12N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
occurring from 08N to 16N between 97W and 108W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 12N east of 94W, from
09N to 12N between 119W and 130W, and from 11N to 14N between
134W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends along the Baja California Peninsula,
and gentle to locally moderate SE winds are occurring in the Gulf
of California, as observed on recent scatterometer satellite
data. Otherwise, ridging extends over the remainder of the
offshore waters, supporting gentle to locally moderate winds.
Recent altimeter satellite data show seas of 4 to 5 ft across the
Baja California waters and 4 to 6 ft seas offshore of southern
Mexico. Seas in the Gulf of California range from 1 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, an area of showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles south of southwestern Mexico is associated
with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form during the early or middle portions of next
week while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
well off the coast of Mexico. There is a low chance of
development within the next 48 hours, and a medium chance within
the next 7 days. Elsewhere, occasional moderate to locally fresh
SE winds will occur in the Gulf of California into next week.
Looking ahead, pulsing fresh to occasionally strong NE winds and
locally rough seas are expected to develop in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec early next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent scatterometer satellite data show moderate to locally
fresh S to SW winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough.
Altimeter data show seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail in these
waters. Elsewhere, moderate E gap winds are noted in the Gulf of
Papagayo as low pressure prevails over the south-central
Caribbean. Gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are occurring
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, fresh S to SW winds and locally rough seas are
expected offshore of Costa Rica through Colombia tonight through
Sat morning. A long-period S to SW swell will propagate through
the South American waters this weekend, promoting rough seas
offshore of Ecuador by Sat morning, and offshore of much of the
Central and South American waters late this weekend into early
next week. Very rough seas will be possible south of the equator
Sun into early next week. Seas will slowly subside by mid next
week. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh E to NE winds will pulse in
the Gulf of Papagayo through at least next Tue.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Ridging extends through the eastern Pacific waters north of the
monsoon trough. Recent scatterometer data show locally fresh NE
winds are occurring north of the monsoon trough to 21N, west of
130W, and seas of 8 to 9 ft prevail in this region. Gentle to
moderate N to NE winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere
north of the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, rough seas to 8 ft are
noted south of the equator. Moderate to locally fresh SE to SW
winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh N to NE winds
are expected north of the monsoon trough through early next week
as high pressure prevails north of the area. Locally rough seas
of 8 to 9 ft will continue north of the monsoon trough to 21N and
west of 130W through Sat before seas diminish. South of the
monsoon trough, generally from 05N to 15N between 100W and 125W,
moderate to fresh S winds and rough seas will develop tonight and
continue into next week. A long-period S to SW swell will
propagate through the equatorial waters this weekend, promoting
rough seas south of 10N through early next week. Moderate to
fresh S to SE winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough.

$$
ADAMS