673
AXPZ20 KNHC 120323
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Nov 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0305 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold airmass associated with
a 1027 mb high pressure over the NE Gulf of America continues to
support strong gales with wind speeds to 45 kt across the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. Strong to gale-force winds extend downstream the
Gulf of Tehuantepec to 09N and west to 103W. Seas are currently
peaking around 18 ft (5.5 M) and rough seas extend south to 05N
and west to 107W. Winds and seas will diminish as the high
pressure weakens and shift eastward through the latter part of
the week, but pulses to gale- force will continue through across
the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu night. Seas will gradually subside,
decreasing below 8 ft late Fri.

Large NW swell following approaching front: A cold front is
forecast to move east of 140W Wed, and move eastward across the
waters north of 20N into Sat. Large NW swell in excess of 12 ft
will follow the front over the waters north of 25N from late Wed
into Sat, with peak seas to 15 ft.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 07N98W. The ITCZ
stretches from 07N98W to 09N120W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 06N to 14N and east of 111W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for additional
information on the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A 1019 mb high pressure system centered several hundred miles
west of Baja California dominates the offshore waters of Mexico,
outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate NW winds and
moderate seas are prevalent across the Baja California Norte
offshore waters, while light to gentle winds and moderate seas
are present offshore Baja California Sur. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are evident.

For the forecast, the strong gales will diminish slightly
overnight, but gale-force gap winds will continue to pulse into
Thu night. Rough to very rough seas accompany these gales
downstream. Winds and seas will gradually diminish through late
Fri as the high pressure north of the area weakens and shifts
eastward. Farther north, a cold front will move across Baja
California and the Gulf of California late Thu through Sat.
Expect fresh to strong SW gap winds across the northern Gulf of
California ahead of the front Fri. Fresh to strong NW winds and
rough seas will follow the front off Baja California late Thu
into Sat, before subsiding Sun.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Swell and moderate to locally strong N winds generated from the
strong gales over the Gulf of Tehuantepec are affecting the
waters off Guatemala beyond 60 nm. Farther east, fresh to strong
easterly gap winds and seas to near 7 ft are found across the
Gulf of Papagayo, supported by high pressure over the NE Gulf of
America. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly breezes and
moderate seas in S swell are prevalent.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse each night
and morning through late this week across the Papagayo region as
a strong high pressure builds into the NW Caribbean. Fresh N to
NE winds will occur across and downwind of the Gulf of Fonseca
and south of El Salvador overnight. Offshore of Guatemala, expect
rough to very rough seas through late Fri as gale-force gap wind
event continues in the nearby Gulf of Tehuantepec.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section regarding large NW swell
following a cold front forecast to move through the region later
this week.

In the eastern waters, a strong gap wind event in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec is supporting fresh to strong NE-E winds and rough
seas north of 05N and east of 107W. A weak area of low pressure
and stationary frontal boundary over the far western waters
continue to produce a few showers in the region. Moderate to
locally fresh southerly winds and rough seas are found north of
22N and west of 130W. Meanwhile, a surface trough along 123W in
the trades waters supports moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds and rough seas south of 20N and between 115W and 135W.
South of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, moderate to locally fresh
southerly winds and moderate to rough seas are present.
Elsewhere, a weak high pressure dominates and sustains moderate
or lighter winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast, other than the large NW swell following the
cold front described in the Special Features section, the main
forecast issue east of 110W will be the plume of winds and swell
generated by the gale-force wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
with fresh to strong winds and rough seas east of 110W from 02N
to 14N through mid week. The large southerly swell will subside,
but a component will mix with the swell emerging out of
Tehuantepec along with the aforementioned NW swell.

$$
Delgado