789
AXPZ20 KNHC 180401
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Nov 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0340 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 11N100W to 08N123W.
The ITCZ stretches from 08N123W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is ongoing from 03N to 10N between 119W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from a 1012 mb low pressure located
near 29N116W to 21N127W. The front is supporting moderate to
fresh SW winds in the northern Gulf of California where seas are
slight to 3 ft. A weak pressure gradient elsewhere support
locally moderate or weaker winds with moderate seas in NW swell,
except slight seas in the remainder Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the above mentioned front will continue to
weaken tonight before dissipating early Tue morning. A new cold
front will reach the Baja California Norte offshore waters
tonight into Tue, followed by fresh NW winds and rough seas in
long period NW swell. Winds are forecast to reach fresh to
strong speeds across the northern Gulf of California ahead of the
front tonight through Tue and then again Tue night. Seas
will build to 6 ft during the strongest winds. The cold front
will move SE reaching Punta Eugenia by Tue evening while
gradually weakening. It is forecast to dissipate between Punta
Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro by Wed. Rough seas in the wake of the
front will propagate across the outer offshore waters N of Cabo
San Lazaro through Wed night into Thu. Otherwise, a new cold
front is forecast to enter the Baja California Norte offshore
waters Thu night followed by large swell bringing rough seas to
12 ft to the waters N of Punta Eugenia through Sat.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scatterometer wind data continue to show gentle to moderate NE
winds across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 87W.
Elsewhere across the Central America offshore waters, light to
gentle winds and slight seas prevail. Between Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to locally moderate from the
south, however seas are slight.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the weather pattern
across the region as a weak pressure gradient is forecast to
prevail. This will support moderate or lighter winds and slight
to moderate seas through at least midweek. In the Gulf of
Papagayo, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and slight to moderate
seas are expected through Sat, with pulsing winds to 20 kt at
night. Seas are forecast to build to 5 or 6 ft with these winds.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A stationary front extends from a 1012 mb low pressure located
near 29N116W SW to 21N127W. A reinforcing cold front stretches
from 30N119W to 26N126W to 25N137W, which is followed by fresh
N to NW winds and rough seas to 10 ft in long-period NW swell.
Elsewhere N of the ITCZ and W of 125W, high pressure prevails,
with a 1025 mb center located near 34N137W. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas are present.

For the forecast, the cold front over the northern waters will
move southeastward over the next few days, bringing fresh to
strong NW to N winds and rough seas in additional pulses of long
period NW swell. This swell event will propagate across much of
the waters N of 25N by tonight, and N of 23N and E of 130W by
Tue night. High pressure in the wake of the front will support
fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas in the trade wind
zone toward midweek. At that time, the high pressure center is
forecast to be located over the NW corner of the forecast area.
Looking ahead, another cold front is expected to reach the NW
waters Wed night into Thu followed by fresh NW to N winds and
rough seas. Then, a low pressure system is expected to develop
along the frontal boundary offshore California. The low pressure
is forecast to move southward entering the NE forecast waters by
Fri night. Strong winds and rough to very rough seas could be
associated with this low.

$$
Ramos