269
AXPZ20 KNHC 250841
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Oct 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Vance is centered near 14.3N 103.4W at 25/0900 UTC,
moving north-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with
gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are near 31 ft or 9.5 m. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is within 150 nm in the NE
semicircle and 75 nm in the SW semicircle. Vance is moving
toward the north-northwest. This slow north-northwest to
northwest motion is expected to continue the next few days.
Gradual weakening is forecast the next couple of days. Periods
of heavy rainfall associated with slow-moving Hurricane Vance
will impact the western coast of Mexico from Michoacn to Jalisco
during much of this week. This rainfall may produce flooding and
mudslides across Colima and western portions of Michoacn and
Jalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain. Swells
generated by Vance will affect portions of the coast of southern
and southwestern Mexico the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office. Please
read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between
high pressure over Mexico and Hurricane Vance is supporting
minimal gale force northerly gap winds funneling into the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Winds will continue to pulse through Mon night with
a tight pressure gradient remaining in place, possibly
diminishing briefly during afternoon hours. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for
further details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 13N74W in the Caribbean Sea
to across Panama at 08N81W to 10N96W SE of Hurricane Vance. It
resumes SW of Vance from 08N113W to 05N135W. The ITCZ extends
from 05N135W to 07N140W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted from 03.4S to 10N between
77W and 85W, from 03N to 10N between 85W and 93W, from 03N to 15N
between 93W and 98W, within 04N118W to 13N99W to 07N99W to
02N118W to 04N118W, from 10N to 12N between 111W and 115W, and
from 12N to 15N between 121W and 123W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Vance, and on a Gale warning for the Gulf of
Tehuantepec.

Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Hurricane Vance, winds
are moderate or weaker as seen on recent ASCAT scatterometer
data. Seas are moderate away from Vance and the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region, except slight in the Gulf of California
away from the entrance.

For the forecast, Hurricane Vance will move to 14.8N 103.8W this
afternoon, 15.4N 104.4W Mon morning, 15.8N 104.9W Mon afternoon,
weaken to a tropical storm near 16.3N 105.5W Tue morning, 17.1N
105.8W Tue afternoon, and 17.9N 106.0W Wed morning. Vance will
change little in intensity as it moves to 19.3N 106.5W early Thu.
 Elsewhere, winds will pulse to gale-force through Mon night
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec as a tight pressure gradient remains
in place, then pulsing to fresh to strong through at least the
middle portion of the week. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse
nearshore Baja California Norte during the early part of the
week. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas will
prevail elsewhere away from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
except mainly slight seas in the Gulf of California.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas are
over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Winds are moderate or
weaker elsewhere with moderate seas, except slight seas nearshore
Colombia.

For the forecast, fresh northeast to east winds will pulse
at night in the Papagayo region. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Special Features section above for information on Hurricane
Vance.

High pressure covers the area north of about 19N. A swath of
moderate to fresh NE-E winds is located from 14N to 19N between
120W and 130W, and another one from 10N to 18N between 116W and
130W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the remainder of
the waters along with moderate seas, except locally rough S of
the Equator and E of 105W.

For the forecast, Hurricane Vance will move to 14.8N 103.8W this
afternoon, 15.4N 104.4W Mon morning, 15.8N 104.9W Mon afternoon,
weaken to a tropical storm near 16.3N 105.5W Tue morning, 17.1N
105.8W Tue afternoon, and 17.9N 106.0W Wed morning. Vance will
change little in intensity as it moves to 19.3N 106.5W early Thu.
 Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will
persist. Swell generated from a cold front and warm front just
northwest of the discussion waters may bring rough seas to the SE
of 30N140W starting this afternoon and into the early part of
the week. Looking ahead, a new set of southerly swell is expected
to spread into the south-central waters by the middle of the
week, building seas to a rough state over the waters south of
about 056N between 105W and 130W by late Wed night, lingering
through at least Thu night.

$$
Lewitsky