403
AXPZ20 KNHC 192111
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Nov 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N81W to 08N118W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection prevails across the Panama Canal. Scattered
moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ and W of 132W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weakening cold front extends from 28N111W to 24N119W. Behind
the front, a surface trough is analyzed from 30N118W to 27N125W.
Scattered showers are ongoing across the Baja California and its
offshore waters, as well as the Gulf of California. Moderate to
fresh NW winds prevail behind the front/trough with rough seas
in long-period NW swell. In the northern Gulf of California, the
front is supporting moderate to fresh SW winds and moderate
seas. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient elsewhere support
mainly gentle winds with slight to moderate seas in NW swell,
except for slight seas in the remainder Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the cold front will continue to move SE while
gradually weakening, and dissipate N of Cabo San Lazaro by
tonight. Rough seas in the wake of the front will continue to
propagate across the outer offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro
through Thu morning. A new cold front is forecast to enter the
Baja California Norte offshore waters Thu night followed by large
swell bringing rough seas to the waters N of Cabo San Lucas
through Mon.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo
and downwind to near 89W along with moderate seas. Elsewhere
across the Central America offshore waters, light to gentle winds
and slight seas prevail, except for moderate N winds in the Gulf
of Panama. Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, moderate S
winds prevail with moderate seas. Scattered moderate to strong
convection prevails in the Panama Canal due to the proximity of
the monsoon trough to the N.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate
seas are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun night.
Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are
forecast elsewhere through the weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weakening cold front extends from 28N111W to 24N119W. Behind
the front, a surface trough is analyzed from 30N118W to 27N125W.
Moderate to fresh NW winds behind the front/trough between 120W
and 130W. Seas are rough in long-period NW swell N of 24N between
118W and 130W. A surface ridge is across the remainder
subtropical waters behind the fronts, supporting moderate to
fresh NE to E winds elsewhere between the ITCZ and 25N to the W
of 125W.

For the forecast, the cold front will move SE while gradually
weakening, and dissipate tonight. The swell associated with the
front will propagate across much of the waters W of Baja
California before subsiding Thu. High pressure in the wake of the
front will support fresh to strong winds and rough seas in the
westernmost trade wind zone through Thu. The next cold front is
expected to reach the NW waters tonight into Thu followed by
fresh NW to N winds and rough seas. Then, a low pressure system
is expected to develop along the frontal boundary offshore
California. The low pressure is forecast to move southward
entering the NE forecast waters by Fri night. Strong winds and
rough to very rough seas could be associated with the low.

$$
ERA