703
AXPZ20 KNHC 082206 CCA
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jun 8 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Boris is centered near 15.5N 99.0W at 2100 UTC,
moving northeast at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak
seas are currently near 5 m or 16 ft, across the S semicircle. Deep
and intense convection is noted on satellite imagery with numerous
strong in bands within 300 nm across the E semicircle and within 180
nm across the W semicircle. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is noted elsewhere from 09N to 17.5N between 92W and 106W. Boris is
expected to turn toward the north and then northwest tonight through
Tue. On the forecast track, the center of Boris is expected to reach
the coast of Guerrero, Mexico, early Tue. Little change in strength
is expected before landfall. Boris is forecast to dissipate inland
over Mexico on Wed. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm
Boris will impact portions of southern Mexico. This rainfall will
likely produce life- threatening flooding and mudslides, especially
in areas of steep terrain. Also, large cross-equatorial SW swell is
moving into the area waters this afternoon and will produce large
and powerful surf along the regional coastlines, and combine with
seas generated from Boris to create very rough and dangerous marine
conditions. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Two-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Cristina is located near 12.1N
87.8W at 2100 UTC, moving north at 5 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt
with gusts to 50 kt. Large SW swell entering the area is aiding
in produce peak seas near 5 m, or 16 ft, within 45 nm N and 100
nm S of the center. Bands of very deep and intense convection
are seen within 180 nm across the S semicircle, with scattered
to numerous moderate to strong convection elsewhere from 03.5N
to 10N between 82W and 92W. Cristina is expected to continue
moving northward tonight and then veer more west to northwest
and parallel to the coasts during the next 3 days before moving
inland across southeastern Guatemala and southwestern El Salvador in
around 72 hours. Some intensification is possible and Cristina is
forecast to intensify to 50 kt by Wed. Heavy rainfall and life-
threatening flash flooding are possible through the middle
portion of this week. In addition, large cross-equatorial SW
swell is moving into the area waters today and will combine with
high wind driven seas from Cristina to create very dangerous
marine condition. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Three-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 10.5N86W, then resumes
SW of the Boris near 12N104W to 07.5N121W to the Remnant Low of
Amanda near 10.5N137W 1011 mb to 09.5N140W. The majority of deep
convection near the monsoon trough is related to and described
with Boris and Cristina in the Special Features section above.
Otherwise, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 00.5S to 09N E of 82W, and within 60 nm S and 120 nm
N of the remnants of Amanda.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Boris approaching the coast of
southern/SW Mexico. Heavy to very heavy rainfall likely leading
to flash flooding and mudslides is expected to impact coastal
portions of Mexico from Michoacan to Oaxaca during the next 36-48
hours.

Otherwise, a broad ridge extends from a 1028 mb high NE of the
Hawaiian Islands near 33N149W southeastward to just NW of the
Revillagigedo Islands. Broad low pressure extends from southern
California SSE across the eastern coast of Baja California Norte.
This pattern is supporting light to gentle NW to N winds W of
110W including offshore Baja California, where seas are mainly
7-9 ft in a mix of converging S-SW and shorter period NW swell.
Gentle NW winds across the waters of Baja Sur turn westerly
around the coast at Cabo San Lucas resulting in fresh W winds
wrapping around the southern tip of Baja California, while a few
areas of moderate W gap winds prevail inside the southern Gulf
of California. Moderate S to SW winds are in the northern Gulf of
California N of 30N. Gentle to moderate NW winds are found
between 106W and 110W, then become fresh to strong from Cabo
Corrientes to the area surrounding Boris. Seas are 7-15 ft E of
110W to the W and S of Boris, and large cross-equatorial SW swell
continues to move into the area waters. In the Gulf of
California, seas are 2-3 ft N of 30N, 1-3 ft across the remainder
of the northern and central Gulf, and 4-7 ft in the southern
Gulf with southerly swell moving through the entrance.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Boris will move to 16.4N 99.6W
tonight, then begin to move inland near 17.1N 100.3W Tue
afternoon, then dissipate by Wed afternoon. Elsewhere, a broad
surface ridge will sustain gentle to moderate NW winds across the
Baja Norte waters through Wed, and across the Baja Sur to
Revillagigedo Islands through early Wed before weakening.
Moderate to fresh NW to N winds and moderate to rough seas will
prevail across the far outer waters of Baja Norte for the early
part of the week. Large, cross equatorial S-SW swell will
continue to impact southern and southwestern Mexico waters
through Tue night, and the Baja California waters later today
through Wed, and will generate very large and powerful coast
along the local coasts and offshore reefs. This swell will also
merge with shorter period NW swell across the Baja waters.
Marine conditions should significantly improve by the end of the
week with tranquil conditions across the offshore waters of
Mexico.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please see the Special Features section for details on newly
upgraded Tropical Storm Cristina, offshore of Nicaragua.

Numerous deep convection continues to impact much of the
offshore waters from Costa Rica to central Nicaragua, due to the
well defined monsoonal circulation and Cristina. Additional
details are also described above. Fresh to strong SW to W winds
dominate the waters south of Cristian to 06N, and extend into the
coasts of western Panama, Costs Rica and southwestern Nicaragua,
where recent satellite altimeter data showed seas are 12-18 ft
in large cross- equatorial swell mixing with wind driven waves.
Winds closer to shore of El Salvador and Guatemala are weaker,
mainly gentle to moderate where the pressure gradient is weaker,
for now, with 8-12 ft seas. Elsewhere, including the rest of the
offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and Ecuador,
mainly gentle to moderate S-SW winds prevail. Seas are 5-9 ft
from offshore northern Colombia and Panama, and 8-13 ft in
cross- equatorial swell elsewhere including from Ecuador to
beyond the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Cristina is expected to turn
toward the NW to W Tue and Wed and continue almost parallel to
the coasts, reaching near 12.4N 87.8W tonight, near 12.6N 88.0W
Tue afternoon, near 12.9N 88.6W Tue night, near 13.3N 89.5W Wed
afternoon, and reach along the coast near 13.9N 90.3W Wed
night. Gradually strengthening to 50 kt is expected through Wed.
Interests along the Pacific coasts of northwestern Costa Rica,
Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala should monitor
the progress of this system, as heavy rainfall and life-
threatening flash flooding are possible through the middle
portion of this week. Otherwise, large, cross-equatorial S-SW
swell with seas of 8-15 ft will continue to impact the area
waters through the early part of the week resulting in large and
powerful surf along the coasts. Refer to your local
meteorological information for more details on the surf zone and
beach impacts. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail away
from Cristina through the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The 1011 mb Remnant Low of Amanda is analyzed near 10.5N137W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm S
and 120 nm N of the center. Associated winds are 20-25 kt with a
large are of 7-10 ft seas NW of the circulation. Otherwise, a
broad ridge extends from a 1028 mb high NE of the Hawaiian
Islands near 33N149W southeastward to NW of the Revillagigedo
Islands. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are found S of the
ridge to 15N and W of 120W. Seas are 6-9 ft N of 20N and W of
130W, and 7-10 ft N of 20N and E of 130W in northerly swell.
Moderate to fresh winds are also found elsewhere from 10N to 20N
to the W of 130W around Amanda. To the E, fresh to strong SW-W
winds prevail N of 05N and E of 110W associated with monsoonal
winds feeding into Tropical Storm Boris offshore Mexico and
Tropical Storm Cristina, offshore Central America. Winds are
moderate or weaker across the remainder of the open waters.
Cross- equatorial southerly swell dominate the waters S of 20N
and E of 130W with seas of 8-14 ft, highest to the S of Boris.
7-10 ft seas prevail across the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast, the Remnant Low of Amanda will continue to spin
down and weaken early in the week, moving W of 140W Tue.
Moderate to locally fresh trades will continue to dominate the
waters N of 10N and W of 120W under ridging for the early part of
the week, then will weaken as the gradient weakens by the middle
through the end of the week. Winds will be moderate or weaker
elsewhere for the start of the week, except higher near the
offshore waters of southern Mexico and northern Central America
near Boris and Cristina. Meanwhile, northerly swell in the
north- central waters will produce seas of 7-10 ft for the next
several days. Large cross-equatorial southerly swell will
continue northward through the regional waters through the early
part of the week and merge with the northerly swell. Seas S of
20N and E of 120W will peak at 10-15 ft seas through tonight
before gradually subsiding Tue through Wed.

$$
Stripling