750
AXPZ20 KNHC 080732
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Dec 8 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next gap wind event in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to begin later this morning
around sunrise as a cold front moves over the SW Gulf of America
and high pressure builds across the eastern slopes of the Sierra
Madre mountains in the wake of the front. Fresh to strong
northerly winds will setup in the Gulf of Tehuantepec early today,
then increase to gale-force this evening. Gale-force winds will
then likely persist through Tue evening. Rough seas, peaking
around 12 or 13 ft, are expected with this event tonight into
early Tue morning when winds may briefly reach 40 kt.

Of note: The monthly distribution of Tehuantepec events shows
that the largest number of gale force events occurs in December.
Storm-force events occur most often in January.

Please read the latest High Seas issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the Pacific coast of Costa Rica
at 10N83W to 09N96W to 12N111W to 11N114W. The ITCZ continues
from 11N114W to 07.5N130W to beyond 08.5N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 10N to 18N between 106.5W and
119W, and from 06N to 10N between 120W and 139W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehunatepec. Please
see the Special Features section for more information.

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds with moderate
seas extending to near Cabo Corrientes. In the Gulf of
California, fresh to locally strong NW-N winds are in the central
Gulf from 24.5N to 29.5N per recent ASCAT scatterometer data
along with moderate seas, with moderate to locally fresh NW
winds and slight seas elsewhere in the Gulf. Light to gentle
winds and moderate seas in long period NW swell are observed
across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, except
northerly at moderate speeds developing in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, occasionally fresh to locally strong NW to N
winds and moderate seas are expected in the central Gulf of
California through Tue morning due to the pressure gradient
between a trough over NW Mexico and a ridge offshore the Baja
California peninsula. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to begin early today, reaching
gale-force tonight through Tue night. Please, see the Special
Features section for more details. Fresh N winds may develop near
Cabo Corrientes Tue night through Wed night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail N of 05N per recent ASCAT data, with
gentle to moderate southerly winds S of 05N. Seas are mainly
moderate in mixed SW and NW swell, with exception of slight seas
nearshore.

For the forecast, mainly gentle winds will prevail N of the
monsoon trough through the next several days, except increasing
and pulsing to moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Papagayo
beginning early Tue. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail S of
monsoon trough. Moderate N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama
starting Tue night. Seas generated by a gap wind event in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec are expected to spread across the outer
offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala Tue and Tue night.
Otherwise, moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell are expected
over the regional waters through the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A high pressure system located N of area and the associated
ridge dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ and W of
110W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are N of the ITCZ to about
24N and W of 110W per recent ASCAT scatterometer data, with seas
of 6 to 9 ft over this region per recent altimeter passes.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere including S of the
monsoon trough/ITCZ. Seas of 4 to 7 ft are noted across the
remainder of the open waters, dominated by mixed long period SW
and NW swells.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the waters N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ
and W of 110W through the middle of the week, supporting
moderate to locally fresh trade winds. Mainly gentle to moderate
winds are expected elsewhere, except locally fresh S of the
monsoon trough and W of 100W at times. Rough seas will persist in
the western waters through the early part of the week. Moderate
seas are expected elsewhere over the eastern Pacific. Looking
ahead, a new set of long period NW swell is forecast to reach the
NW part of the forecast region by the middle of the week,
building seas to 8 to 9 ft before subsiding by the end of the
week.

$$
Lewitsky