843
AXPZ20 KNHC 112115
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Nov 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold airmass associated with
1029 mb high pressure over northeast Mexico continues to support
strong gales with wind speeds to 45 kt across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec this afternoon. These gap winds have diminished
slightly from the storm- force conditions that were observed
overnight, but a recent scatterometer satellite pass indicates a
large plume of strong to gale- force winds persists from the Gulf
of Tehuantepec to as far as 540 nm to the southwest of Salina
Cruz on the southern end of the isthmus. In addition, a large
area of rough to very rough seas, peaking near 19 ft, is
expanding outward from Tehuantepec to cover much of the area
north of 07N between roughly 90W and 105W. Winds and seas will
diminish as the high pressure weakens and shift eastward through
the latter part of the week, but pulses to gale-force will
continue through across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu night. Seas
will gradually subside, decreasing below 8 ft late Fri.

Large NW swell following approaching front: A cold front is
forecast to move east of 140W Wed, and move eastward across the
waters north of 20N into Sat. Large NW swell in excess of 12 ft
will follow the front over the waters north of 25N from late Wed
into Sat, with peak seas to 15 ft.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 06N100W. The ITCZ
stretches from 06N100W to 10N120W to 08N135W to beyond 10N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N to 12N between
92W and 96W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
active from 07N to 13N between 95W and 110W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for additional
information on the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Outside of the gale force gap winds off Oaxaca and the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, mostly gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas
prevail over Mexican offshore waters under the influence of the
subtropical ridge, anchored by 1021 mb high pressure near
27N122W.

For the forecast, the strong gales will diminish slightly
overnight, but gale-force gap winds will continue to pulse into
Thu night. Rough to very rough seas accompany these gales
downstream. Winds and seas will gradually diminish through late
Fri as the high pressure north of the area weakens and shift
eastward. Farther north, a cold front will move across Baja
California and the Gulf of California late Thu through Sat.
Expect fresh to strong SW gap winds across the northern Gulf of
California ahead of the front Fri. Fresh to strong NW winds and
rough seas will follow the front off Baja California late Thu
into Sat, before subsiding Sun.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Swell and moderate to locally strong N winds generated from the
strong gales over the Gulf of Tehuantepec are affecting the
waters off Guatemala beyond 60 nm. Farther east, fresh to
locally strong easterly gap winds and seas to near 8 ft are
likely occurring across the Gulf of Papagayo, supported by high
pressure building north of the area. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate southerly breezes and moderate seas in S swell are
prevalent.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse each night and
morning through late this week across the Papagayo region as a
strong high pressure builds into the NW Caribbean. Fresh N to NE
winds will occur across and downwind of the Gulf of Fonseca and
south of El Salvador overnight. Offshore of Guatemala, expect
rough to very rough seas through late Fri as gale-force gap wind
event continues in the nearby Gulf of Tehuantepec.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section regarding large NW swell
following a cold front forecast to move through the region later
this week.

A 1010 mb occluded low is centered 27N140W, moving northeast at
10-15 kt. A few showers and thunderstorms are active along a
frontal boundary extending from the low pressure to 27N138W then
to 22N140W. NW swell of 8 to 11 ft prevails mainly north of 10N
and west of 125W. Fresh winds and seas to 8 ft are also noted on
the northern end of a trough along 120W from 10N to 15N. Farther
south, southerly swell around 8 ft was cross the Equator and
reaching as far north as 06N between 110W and 135W. Farther east,
as mentioned in the Special Features section, a plume of strong
winds and rough seas is emerging from the Gulf of Tehuantepec
area and possibly reaching as far west as 105W from 07N to 14N.
Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas primarily NW swell
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, other than the large NW swell following the
cold front described in the Special Features section, the main
forecast issue east of 110W will be the plume of winds and swell
generated by the storm- force wind event in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, with fresh to strong winds and rough seas east of
110W from 02N to 14N through mid week. The large southerly swell
will subside, but a component will mix with the swell emerging
out of Tehuantepec along with the aforementioned NW swell.

$$
Christensen