177
AXPZ20 KNHC 290841
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Aug 29 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula (EP93):
A broad area of low pressure is located several hundred nautical
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. A surface low pressure of 1010 mb is analyzed near
13N113.5W. Latest satellite imagery shows clusters of scattered
moderate isolated strong convection from 11N to 17N between 110W
and 119W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely
to form late this weekend as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to
15 kt. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone
formation through the next 48 hours and a high chance through 7
days. Regardless of development, increasing winds and building
seas are expected with this feature. Refer to the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook at:
https://www.hurricanes.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across Central America, and analyzed
along 90W north of 06N and inland to the central Yucatan
Peninsula. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Convection
associated with this tropical wave is described below in the
ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section. Scattered moderate convection
follows the northern part of the wave over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N74W to 08N79W to
low pressure 1010 mb near 13N113.5W to low pressure 1011 mb near
12.5N127W to 10.5N136W. The ITCZ extends from 10.5N136W to beyond
10.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen
from 04N to 13.5N east of 90W, from 08N to 16.5N between 90W and
100W, and from 07N to 17N between 100W and 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information
related to a broad area of low pressure located several hundred
nautical miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja
California.

The remnant low of former tropical cyclone Juliette is seen as a
broad swirl of low level clouds near 26N121.5W, with a pressure
of 1012 mb. No significant convection is noted with the low.
Fresh winds are within 120 nm of the low in the N semicircle as
seen in recent ASCAT data. Seas are 7 to 8 ft with these winds.
This system continues to block high pressure located well to the
NW from building into the Baja California waters. The resultant
pressure pattern across the Baja waters is yielding gentle NW to
N winds tonight, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell.
Inside the Gulf of California, gentle S to SW winds prevail
across south and central sections, while moderate to fresh north
to W winds are across northern portions. Elsewhere, moderate NW
to W winds were depicted by overnight ASCAT data across the
waters from near Carob Corrientes to Puerto Angel, with fresh
northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds are
resulting in moderate seas of 5 to 6 ft. Convection occurring
across Baja California Sur earlier tonight has diminished
significantly in recent hours, with only light to moderate
convection there now.

For the forecast, the remnant low of former of Juliette will
move little today and continue to weaken, then dissipate tonight
and shift SW Sat. High pressure will build modestly into Baja
California this afternoon and tonight and act to freshen the NW
winds across the Baja waters through Sun. Winds will then weaken
slightly through mid-week. Gentle to moderate winds will vary in
direction across the Gulf of California through early next week.
Fresh winds across Tehuantepec tonight will diminish by late
morning then become variable for the next few days. Looking
ahead, a tropical wave will move through the Tehuantepec region
this weekend, bringing fresh E to SE winds and building seas with
it. As it continues to shift westward early next week, an area
of low pressure could form off the coast of southern Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
by the middle of next week while the system moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 kt offshore of Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh east winds continue across the Papagayo region
tonight along with moderate seas. Light to gentle winds are
elsewhere across the Central American offshore waters north of
10N. Moderate SW to W winds generally prevail south of 10N,
except for moderate to locally fresh southwest winds across the
waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Moderate seas
of 5 to 6 ft in southeast to south swell prevail. Light to gentle
winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail across the Gulf of Panama.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is offshore Costa
Rica and far western Panama, and extends westward to 90W.

For the forecast, moderate gap winds will pulse to locally fresh at
night across the Papagayo region this weekend, increasing to
fresh to strong early next week. Moderate to locally fresh SW
winds will continue through late morning between the Galapagos
Islands and the coasts of Ecuador and Colombia, before
diminishing modestly, then freshen again Fri night. Otherwise,
mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail
elsewhere, with slight to moderate seas.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information
related to a broad area of low pressure located several hundred
nautical miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja
California.

Aside from the remnant low of Juliette, weak high pressure
dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough and west of
125W. Winds are moderate to locally fresh from 11N to 22N west
of 125W, and moderate or weaker elsewhere north of the monsoon
trough west of 120W. Winds are mainly gentle to moderate south of
the monsoon trough. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in mixed northerly and
southerly swell north of the monsoon trough, and 6 to 9 ft in
south swell south of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, see the Special Features section above for
information about a possible new tropical cyclone that could have
significant impacts on winds and seas. Otherwise, cross-
equatorial swell over the far southern waters will gradually
subside through the weekend. Moderate to fresh southerly winds
from 03N to 06N between 90W-125W will build seas 6 to 8 ft
between 109W and 124W on Fri and between 95W and 110W on Sat,
then subside on Sun. Elsewhere, little change in winds is
forecast through Sat.

$$
Stripling