759
AXPZ20 KNHC 142136
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jun 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Dalila is centered near 16.8N 105.5W at 2100 UTC,
moving northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65
kt. Seas of 12 ft and greater extend outward to 210 nm to the
northeast, and along the Mexican coast, and up to 270 nm across
the southeast quadrant. Peak seas are estimated at 22 ft. Bands
of numerous moderate to strong convection extend from the Mexican
coast along 20N southward to 13N and between 99W and 109W, or
between eastern coastal Guerrero and Jalisco. Dalila has likely
reached its peak intensity this afternoon and may maintain its
current strength through this evening before beginning a
weakening trend tonight through Mon as it moves more westward
over cooler waters and into a more stable environment. Dalila
expected to become a 35 kt post tropical low near 17.9N 110.8W
Sun night, then continue moving westward and weakening, finally
dissipating midday Tue near 115W. Please refer to the latest HIGH
SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
T.S. Dalila NHC Forecast Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical waves extends from the Gulf of Honduras southward
across Central America and into the eastern Tropical Pacific along
87W-88W, moving westward 5-10 kt. A 1009 mb surface low is along
the monsoon trough near 095N87.5W. Scattered to locally numerous
moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 11N between
84W and 93W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N73W to 11.5N80W to low pres
near 09N87W 1009 mb to 14N99W, then resumes southwest of T.S.
Dalila near 13N109W to 09N133W. The ITCZ extends from 09N133W to
beyond 08N140W. Aside from the convection associated with T.S.
Dalila, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N
of 03N between E of 83.5W, and from 07.5N to 09.5N between 117W
and 131W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is
noted from 06N to 11.5N between 84W and 93W, N of 09N between 93W
and 100W, and from 10N to 13N between 101W and 115W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Dalila, located a few hundred miles south of
Manzanillo, Mexico.

Broad cyclonic flow associated with Dalila dominates the SW
Mexican offshore waters, from near Manzanillo to the waters of
eastern Guerrero. Tropical storm force winds are reaching the
coasts of Guerrero and Michoacan. Seas to 12 ft associated with
Dalila have reach the coast across much of this area. Elsewhere,
a broad and weak ridge extends from a 1028 mb high centered well
NW of the area near 40N136W to just west of the Revillagigedo
Islands. This pattern continues to support gentle to locally moderate
NW winds across the offshore waters of Baja California where
seas are 5 to 7 ft in mixed NW and s swell. Light to gentle
winds are ongoing in the Gulf of California with seas less than 3
ft, except in the entrance of the Gulf where seas are 4 to 5 ft
in S swell. Light to gentle winds are also across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Seas across these eastern waters from Oaxaca to
Chiapas are 8 to 10 ft in S swell and waves from Dalila.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Dalila is expected to move NW
near 10 kt through tonight, and will continue to brush the
Mexican coastline. Dalila is expected to begin to turn more
westerly and weaken on Sun, reaching near 17.8N 108.7W midday
Sun, then reach near 17.9N 110.8W Sun night as a 35 kt post
tropical system, then continue westward, reaching near 17.9N
112.6W midday Mon, before dissipating near 115W midday Tue.
Cross-equatorial southerly swell will continue to mix with seas
generated from Dalila to impact the waters between Tehuantepec
and Baja California Sur through Sun night. Elsewhere, high
pressure well northwest of the area will support generally
moderate to locally fresh N-NW winds across the Baja California
offshore waters through Tue. NW to N swell will build into the
Baja waters Sun through Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A tropical wave moving across Central America along 87W-88W is
described above, and contributing to active weather extending across
much of the waters of Costa Rica and Nicaragua westward to 93W.
This activity is likely producing strong gusty winds and rough
seas. Onshore SW to W winds prevail across the area from southern
Costa Rica eastward, while offshore winds have developed from the
Papagayo region northward. Strong cross-equatorial southerly
swell continues to dominate area waters, with seas of 6 to 9 ft.
This swell event has peaked overnight, and seas have begun to
diminish slightly between Ecuador, Colombia, and the Galapagos,
where seas 5 to 8 ft prevail.

For the forecast, large S to SW swell dominating the regional
waters will slowly subside through early next week. Tropical
Storm Dalila located south of Manzanillo, Mexico will move NW
through early Sun then turn more W-NW and weaken Sun through Tue.
Low pressure has formed just offshore of NW Costa Rica and is
expected to drift W to W-NW and just offshore of the area
coastlines through the middle of next. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected to remain active across the regional waters in
association with this system. This system is being monitored for
potential tropical development, and has a low chance of formation
through 48 hours, and a medium chance through 7 days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Dalila, located a few hundred nautical miles
south of Manzanillo, Mexico.

Broad and weak ridging dominates the waters north of 13N,
centered on a 1028 mb high near 40N136W. This pattern is
supporting mostly moderate N to NE winds north of 20N and west
of 120W, with 5 to 7 ft seas in a mix of N and S swell. Moderate
to locally fresh NE trades prevail between 10N and 20N to the
west of 125W, where seas are 5 to 6 ft. Southerly swell  is
slowly subsiding between 90W and 120W, where seas are 7 to 9 ft.
Elsewhere moderate to fresh SW winds persist south of the
monsoon trough between 100W and 125W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in S
swell elsewhere west of 120W.

In the forecast, little change is expected west of 120W except
for increased NW swell north of 28N and east of 130W today
through Wed. Conditions east of 120W and associated with T.S.
Dalila are described in the Special Features section above, and
will be dominated by large SW swell through tonight, and mixed E
to SE swell generated by Dalila. Dalila is forecast to spin down
to a 20 kt remnant low by Mon night near 17.9N 114.1W.

$$
Stripling