346
AXPZ20 KNHC 252141 CCA
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Oct 25 2026

Corrected Remainder of the Area section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Vance is centered near 14.3N 103.8W, or roughly about
440 nm SW of Acapulco, Mexico at 25/1500 UTC, moving northwest
at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are
near 30 ft or 9 m. Satellite imagery shows Vance is being
impacted by strong southwest to westerly shear as the low-level
center is appearing to the southwest of the the ongoing
convection. This convection consists of the numerous moderate to
isolated strong type within 180 nm in the NE semicircle and
within 30 nm in the SW semicircle. A northwestward to west-
northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the north-
northwest around midweek. Gradual weakening is forecast the
next several days. Vance is expected to produce 2 to 4
inches of rain, with isolated higher totals of 7 inches possible,
across Colima and western portions of Michoacn and Jalisco. This
rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides, especially in areas
along steep terrain. Swell generated by Vance will affect
portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico during
the next several days. This swell is likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office. Please consult products
from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between
high pressure over Mexico and Hurricane Vance continues to
support minimal gale force northerly gap winds funneling into
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will continue to pulse through Mon
night with a tight pressure gradient remaining in place,
possibly diminishing briefly during afternoon hours. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml
for further details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from NW Colombia to across southern
Panama and to 08N78W to 09N88W and to 12.5N95W. It resumes to the SW
of Vance at 09N108W, and continues to 06N119W to 08N130W and to
06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within
120 nm south of the trough between 86W-89W, and within 60 nm south
of the trough between 82W-83W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 120 nm south of the trough between 92W-95W, also within 60 nm
south of the trough between 112W-116W and within 30 nm of the trough
between 127W-130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Vance, and on a Gale warning for the Gulf of
Tehuantepec.

Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Hurricane Vance, winds
are moderate or weaker as seen on recent ASCAT scatterometer
data. Seas are moderate away from Vance and the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region, except slight in the Gulf of California
away from the entrance.

For the forecast, Hurricane Vance will weaken to a tropical storm
near 14.5N 104.1W this evening with maximum sustained winds 60 kt
gusts 75 kt, maintain intensity as it moves to near 15.0N 104.8W Mon
morning, and continue to weaken as it moves to near 15.3N 105.4W Mon
evening with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, move to near
16.1N 105.9W Tue morning, to near 17.0N 106.3W Tue evening with
maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt and to near 18.0N 106.6W
Wed morning. Vance is forecast to become post-tropical as it nears
19.5N 107.0W early on Thu with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts
50 kt.ntensity as it moves to near 15.0N 104.8W Mon morning, then
begin to weaken as it moves to near 15.3N 105.4W Mon evening with
maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, move to near 16.1N 105.9W
Tue morning, to near 17.0N 106.3W Tue evening with maximum sustained
winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt and to near 18.0N 106.6W Wed morning. Vance
is forecast to become post-tropical as it nears 19.5N 107.0W early
on Thu with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Elsewhere,
winds will pulse to gale-force through Mon night over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec as a tight pressure gradient remains in place, then
pulsing to fresh to strong through at least the middle portion of
the week. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse nearshore Baja
California Norte during the early part of the week. Moderate or
weaker winds along with moderate seas will prevail elsewhere away
from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, except mainly slight seas in
the Gulf of California.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas are
over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Winds are moderate or
weaker elsewhere with moderate seas, except slight seas nearshore
Colombia.

For the forecast, fresh northeast to east winds will pulse at night
in the Papagayo region tonight and Wed night and be at gentle to
moderate speeds during the rest of the period. Otherwise, moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas will continue elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected

See Special Features section above for information on Hurricane
Vance.

High pressure covers the area north of about 19N. A swath of
moderate to fresh northeast to east winds is located from 14N to
18N between 120W and 130W, and another one from 11N to 15N
between 114W and 120W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across
the remainder of the waters along with moderate seas, except
locally rough S of the Equator and E of 105W.

For the forecast, Hurricane Vance will weaken to a tropical storm
near 14.5N 104.1W this evening with maximum sustained winds 60 kt
gusts 75 kt, maintain intensity as it moves to near 15.0N 104.8W Mon
morning, and continue to weaken as it moves to near 15.3N 105.4W Mon
evening with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, to near
16.1N 105.9W Tue morning, to near 17.0N 106.3W Tue evening with
maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt and to near 18.0N 106.6W
Wed morning. Vance is forecast to become post-tropical as it nears
19.5N 107.0W early on Thu with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts
50 kt. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will
persist. Swell generated from a frontal system just northwest of the
discussion waters may bring rough seas to the SE of 30N140W starting
this afternoon and into the early part of the upcoming week along
with fresh southeast to south winds over the far NW portion of the
area. A tightening pressure gradient related to the frontal system
will induce fresh to strong to southeast to south winds by early
Tue, roughly north of about 28N and west of 138W. Seas of 7 to 9 ft
are expected with these winds. Looking ahead, a new set of southerly
swell is expected to spread into the south- central waters by the
middle of the week, building seas to a rough state over the waters
south of about 05N between 105W and 125W by late Wed night,
lingering through at least Thu night.

$$
Aguirre