405
AXPZ20 KNHC 020946
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Jun 02 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An area of low pressure is well to the SW of the southern tip of
Baja California along the monsoon trough. Low pressure of 1006
mb, Invest-EP90, is along the trough near 09.5N127W. Satellite
imagery shows numerous strong convection from 06N to 10N between
125W and 128W, and from 08N to 10N between 128W and 131W. This
area of low pressure has become slightly better defined since
yesterday as noted in more pronounced cyclonic turning of the
clouds within this area. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression
is expected to form during the next day or two while the system
moves westward or west-northwestward across the western portion
of the eastern Pacific. The low now has a high chance of
tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
wwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The southern portion of a tropical wave axis is along 83W N of
03N, moving westward at around 5 kt. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are within 60 nm east of the wave axis from 06N to
09N, and within 30 nm west of the wave axis from 06N to 08N.

A tropical wave has its axis along 108W from 04N to 16N, moving
westward near 05 kt. Scattered moderate within 60 nm west of
the wave from 07N to 08N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia
southwestward to 10N85W to 11N100W to 12N110W to low pressure
near 09N127.5W 1006 mb to 09N131W to low pressure near 06N137W
1009 mb and to beyond 05N140W. Numerous strong convection is
within 180 nm N of the trough between 131W-134W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is within 30 nm S of the trough
between 84W and 86W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen from 03N to 09N between 116W-122W, and
within 60 nm N of the trough between 118W-120W. SCattered
moderate convection is within 180 nm N of the trough between
134W-138W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge that is anchored by a 1026 mb high center
N of the area near 34N134W stretches southeastward to near
20N118W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface
trough along the Gulf of California is keeping mostly moderate NW
to N winds over the Baja California offshore waters as noted in
an overnight Ascat satellite data pass. NW swell is producing
seas to 8 ft over the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro. Inside the Gulf
of California, light to gentle winds remain across just about the
entire Gulf, except for gentle to moderate S to SW winds N of 30N as
seen in an overnight Ascat satellite data pass. Seas of 2 to 4 ft
are in the Gulf, with the exception of higher seas of 4 to 6 ft in S
to SW swell near the Gulf entrance. An overnight altimeter satellite
data pass capture the seas in the central and southern sections of
the Gulf. For the remainder of the offshore waters, light to gentle
winds dominate along with 5 to 7 ft seas primarily in long-period S
to SW swell, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, the NW swell will subside today. Another NW
swell set will move through these same waters from Thu through
early on Sat, decaying afterward. Looking ahead, an area of low
pressure is likely to form offshore of Central America and
southern Mexico late this week or over the weekend. Environmental
conditions appear favorable for some development of this system
thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by early next
week while it moves westward to northwestward.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Mainly light and variable winds are over the Central American
offshore waters under a weak pressure pattern along with
moderate seas of 5 to 7 ft in long-period S to SW swell. The
exception is moderate gap winds in the Papagayo region. Gentle
south to southeast winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in long-
period SW swell are over the waters S of the monsoon trough between
the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Latest altimeter satellite data
passes show the 5 to 7 ft seas.

For the forecast, the weak pressure pattern in place will
provide for generally light to gentle winds through the period,
except for nocturnal pulses of moderate to fresh gap winds across
the Papagayo region. Long period SW swell is forecast to enter the
southern Galapagos adjacent waters tonight and begin to subside Thu
afternoon. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is likely to form
offshore of Central America and southern Mexico late this week or
over the weekend. Environmental conditions appear favorable for some
development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression
could form by early next week while it moves westward to
northwestward.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on low
pressure in the western portion of basin along the monsoon
trough that is expected to become a tropical depression during
the next couple of days.

High pressure dominates waters N of the monsoon trough, with the
pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure
within the monsoon trough generally allowing for moderate to
locally fresh trade winds N of the monsoon trough, except for
gentle NE winds from about 24N to 29N between 120W and 128W, and
from 20N to 30N between 117W and 120W. Seas over these waters
are in the 7 to 9 ft range in a mix of trade wind waves and NW to
N swell. Gentle to locally moderate winds are S of the monsoon
trough. Seas over these waters are generally 5 to 7 ft primarily
in N swell, except for slightly higher seas of 6 to 8 ft S of
about 14N and W of 120W as indicated by recent altimeter
satellite data passes over this part of the discussion domain.

The aforementioned high pressure will weaken some toward the end of
the week as the Special Features low pressure system tracks to the
NW over the western portion of the area resulting in a weakening of
the trade winds E of about 130W, becoming light and variable from
04N to 12N between 120W and 130W. Seas over these waters are
forecast to subside to around 5 to 7 ft by early Thu. Mostly fresh
trade winds are expected elsewhere outside the Special Features low,
namely W of 125W and N of about 08N along with seas of 7 to 9 ft in
merging NE and SW long-period swell Wed through Fri.

$$
Aguirre