178
AXPZ20 KNHC 010914
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Sep 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Kiko:
Tropical Storm Kiko is centered near 14.1N 125.5W at 01/0900 UTC,
moving west at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed remains 40 kt with gusts to 50
kt, and extends to 40 nm N of the center. Seas are peaking near
14 ft within 30 nm across the N semicircle. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is noted from 13.5N to 14.5N between 124W and
125.5W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong
convection is elsewhere from 09.5N to 18N between 121W and 128W.
Kiko will maintain a general westward motion across the eastern
Pacific and move into the central Pacific basin late this week.
The system is forecast to gradually intensify, and reach
hurricane intensity midday Tuesday.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Kiko NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing a broad area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms south of southern Mexico, from 08N northward to
the coasts, between 98W and 110W. An area of low pressure is
expected to form from this system within the next day or two, and
it is likely to become a tropical depression by the middle of
this week while moving west- northwestward or northwestward at 10
to 15 kt just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
There is a medium chance for tropical formation in the next 48
hours and a high chance for formation in the next 7 days.
Regardless of development, expect an increase in winds and seas
off SW Mexico with this system.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave, mentioned above, is near 102W, from
07N northward to the coast of Mexico, moving westward at 10 to
15 kt. Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on this
tropical wave and the possibility of tropical cyclogenesis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N74W to 10N80W to 13N99W to
11N108W to 14.5N120W, then resumes from 12N127W to beyond
09N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N
to 10N east of 84.5W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 07N to 20N between 95W and 112W, and
from 08N to 11.5N between 127W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for information on the
potential of tropical cyclone formation off SW Mexico.

Scattered moderate to strong thunderstorms are noted within 240
nm of the coast of southern Mexico from Guerrero to Jalisco,
associated with a tropical wave moving through the area. Strong
gusty and winds and building seas are likely occurring near this
activity. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed E to SE
winds to near 25 kt in the thunderstorms along the coast of
Guerrero. Outside of this convection, moderate to fresh easterly
winds prevail between Puerto Angel and Michoacan, where seas are
6 to 9 ft per recent satellite altimeter data. Elsewhere, high
pressure located NW of the area extends a ridge southeastward to
offshore of Baja Sur, with a surface trough over the Gulf of
California. The associated pressure gradient is producing
moderate NW winds across the Baja waters north of Punta Eugenia,
and gentle winds between Punta Eugenia and the Revillagigedo
Islands. Seas are 4 to 5 ft seas in southerly swell across these
waters. Light to gentle winds prevail across the Gulf of
California, with seas in the 1-3 ft range, reaching 4 ft at the
entrance of the Gulf. Light winds prevail elsewhere over the open
waters off Mexico.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain centered NW of the
area through mid-week, with an associated ridge across the Baja
California waters. The pressure gradient between this area of
high pressure and a trough over the Gulf of California will
support moderate NW to N winds across the Baja waters through
Tue before weakening. A tropical wave is producing a large area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms south of southern
Mexico. An area of low pressure is expected to form from this
system within the next day or two, and it is likely to become a
tropical depression by the middle of this week while moving west-
northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15 kt just offshore of
the southwestern coast of Mexico. There is a medium chance for
tropical formation in the next 48 hours and a high chance of
formation in the next 7 days. Regardless of development, expect
increasing winds and seas and active thunderstorms over the
waters off SW Mexico through the middle of the week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate gap winds extend from the Papagayo region offshore to
88W tonight, with light to gentle winds elsewhere N of the
monsoon trough. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate
SW to W winds prevail. SW swell is moving through the Central and
South American waters, with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range,
reaching 8 ft south and southeast of the Galapagos Islands.
Scattered to numerous strong thunderstorms continue across the
Gulf of Panamas and waters of western Panama and Costa Rica,
occurring ahead of an approaching tropical wave.

For the forecast, SW swell offshore of Ecuador and Colombia will
subside slightly today through Tue, then increase modestly Wed
and Thu.. Moderate gap winds are expected across the Papagayo
region through Mon, then will pulse to fresh speeds at night
through the middle of the week. Light to gentle winds will
prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh
S to SW winds are expected south of the monsoon trough through
the week. Strong thunderstorms impacting Panama and Costa Rica
will shift west and northwestward through Tue, reaching the
waters of El Salvador and Guatemala.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
Tropical Storm Kiko.

Aside from T.S. Kiko, high pressure prevails over the waters N
of 20N, anchored by a 1023 mb high centered north of the
discussion area near 37N135W. Outside the winds of Kiko,
moderate NE to E winds prevail across the waters N of 10N and W
of 120W. Light to gentle winds are N of 10N and E of 120W.
Moderate to fresh southerly winds are found S of 10N. Seas across
the forecast waters are in the 4-6 ft range, except 6 to 8 ft in
mixed SE and SW swell S of 12N between 95W and 130W.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain north of the area
between 130W and 140W through mid-week to maintain moderate trade
winds. Tropical Storm Kiko is expected to gradually strengthen,
reaching near 13.9N 126.7W midday Mon, near 13.7N 128.2W midnight
Mon, strengthen to a hurricane near 13.5N 129.6W midday Tue,
reach near 13.5N 131.2W midnight Tue, and near 13.6N 134.7W
midnight Wed. Kiko will change little in intensity as it crosses
140W and into the central Pacific waters late Thu. Elsewhere, S
to SW swell over the waters south of 10N will support rough seas
south of 10N between 100W and 120W.

$$
Stripling