351
AXPZ20 KNHC 301604
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Aug 30 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western East Pacific (EP93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about 900 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California has increased since yesterday. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 18N
between 114W and 122W. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form early next week while moving westward at
around 10 mph across the western part of the eastern Pacific
basin. The system is likely to cross into the central Pacific
basin during the middle to latter part of next week. There is a
medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48
hours, and a high chance within the next 7 days. Regardless of
development, increasing winds and building seas are expected with
this feature. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook
at:
https://www.hurricanes.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 97.5W, from 06N northward
into south-central Mexico, moving toward the west around 5 kt.
Convection associated with this tropical wave is described below
in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 120W, from 07N northward
through a 1010 mb low centered near 14.5N120W, EP93, to 19N,
moving toward the west around 10 kt. Please refer to the SPECIAL
FEATURES section for more information on EP93.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10.5N86W to a 1010 mb low
centered near 14.5N120W, EP93, to a 1011 mb low centered near
11N131W to 10N133W. The ITCZ continues from 10N133W to beyond
08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
occurring from 09N to 24N between 89W and 108W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N east of 84W, from
08N to 10N between 113W and 119W, and from 07N to 13N between
124W and 137W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to locally fresh NE gap winds and moderate seas are
occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, supported by the pressure
gradient between a trough in the Bay of Campeche and lower
pressure along the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, building high
pressure over the eastern Pacific is leading to moderate NW winds
offshore of Baja California and southwestern Mexico. Recent
altimeter satellite data show 4 to 7 ft seas in S swell in these
waters. A surface trough has been analyzed from the northern
Gulf of California through Baja California Sur, and gentle to
moderate NW winds and slight seas prevail in the Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds will pulse in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec today. Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally
fresh NW winds will occur offshore of Baja California as high
pressure continues to build over the eastern Pacific. Looking
ahead, a tropical wave will move westward offshore of southern
Mexico this weekend, accompanied by moderate to fresh E winds
and building seas. An area of low pressure could form from this
system early next week, and it is likely to become a tropical
depression by the middle of next week while moving west-
northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15 mph just offshore of
the southwestern coast of Mexico. There is a low chance of
tropical formation within the next 48 hours, and a high chance
within the next 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally freah E winds are occurring from the Gulf of
Papagayo through the waters offshore of El Salvador and
Guatemala, behind a tropical wave moving westward offshore of
southern Mexico. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh S
to SW winds prevail. A long period SW swell is moving through
the Central and South America waters this weekend, and recent
altimeter satellite data show 4 to 6 ft seas in these waters,
with 7 to 8 ft seas occurring south of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, a long period SW swell will support rough seas
offshore of Ecuador and Colombia through tonight before seas
subside on Sun. Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally fresh E winds
will occur in the Gulf of Papagayo through the waters offshore
of El Salvador and Guatemala this weekend as a tropical wave
moves westward offshore of southern Mexico. Looking ahead, fresh
to locally strong NE to E gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of
Papagayo Sun night through the middle of next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
EP93.

The remnant low of former tropical cyclone Juliette is centered
near 24N123.5W, and a surface trough extends to the northwest and
to the east. The pressure gradient between these features and a
1020 mb high centered near 31.5N135W is supporting moderate to
locally fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas north of 25N
between 120W and 130W. Broad ridging extends through much of the
eastern Pacific north of the monsoon trough, supporting moderate
N to NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas elsewhere north of 20N, and
locally fresh NE winds south of 20N. Recent altimeter satellite
data and buoy observations show 6 to 8 ft seas south of 20N.
South of the monsoon trough, a long-period SW swell is supporting
8 to 9 ft seas between 90W and 125W, as observed via altimeter
data. Moderate to locally fresh S to SE winds prevail over these
waters.

For the forecast, rough seas in S to SW swell south of 10N will
slowly subside this weekend. A new S to SW swell will promote
rough seas south of the equator Sun into the middle of next week.
Elsewhere, rough seas may develop north of 05N between 100W and
120W late Sun into next week as a potential tropical depression
develops offshore of southern Mexico by the middle of next week.
Looking ahead, an area of low pressure located about 900 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California is expected
to encounter environmental conditions conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form early
next week while moving westward at around 10 mph across the
western part of the eastern Pacific basin. The system is likely
to cross into the central Pacific basin during the middle to
latter part of next week. There is a medium chance of tropical
formation within the next 48 hours, and a high chance within the
next 7 days.

$$
ADAMS