150
AXPZ20 KNHC 300909
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Sep 30 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The upgraded Hurricane Rachel is centered near 17.6N 107.2W at
30/0900 UTC, moving northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with
gusts to 90 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection
from 03N to 21N between 100W and 116W. Seas near the center are
as high as 30 ft. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is
expected to move away from mainland Mexico and south of the Baja
California Peninsula through Thursday. Swells generated by
Rachel will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the
next couple of days and spread northward along the coast of west-
central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the end
of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E is centered near 13.6N 129.4W at
30/0900 UTC, moving east-southeast at 8 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25
kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N
to 15N between 128W and 130W. Little change in strength is
forecast during the next couple of days, and this system is
expected to degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone by Thursday.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
  NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at
  www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Rachel and T.D.
  Nineteen-E.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 15N95W, and from
14N110W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is S of 14N between 113W and 128W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
T.S. Rachel.

Rachel will impact a large majority of the forecast waters.
Elsewhere, fresh northwest to north winds are offshore the Baja
California Peninsula and light to gentle winds elsewhere over the
Mexican offshore waters and Gulf of California. Rough seas are
offshore over the northern Baja California waters, with moderate
seas elsewhere, except slight in the northern Gulf of
California.

For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 18.4N 108.1W
this afternoon, 19.2N 109.1W Thu morning, 19.5N 109.7W Thu
afternoon, 19.7N 110.4W Fri morning, 19.9N 111.1W Fri afternoon,
and 20.1N 112.2W Sat morning. Rachel will change little in
intensity as it moves to 20.4N 114.3W by early Sun. Strong winds
and rough seas will develop in the Tehuantepec region tonight
and continue through Fri night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

NW swell from Rachel is reaching the waters off Guatemala where
seas are 6 ft. Gentle breezes and slight seas persist off the
remainder of Central America. Moderate SE to S winds and 5 to 6
ft seas in a mix of swell are noted off Colombia and Ecuador.

For the forecast, a light pressure gradient will maintain
moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with
mostly moderate seas through the period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
the recently upgraded Hurricane Rachel and T.D. Nineteen-E.

The remnant low of Odalys is near 19N125W with a pressure of
1008 mb. Elsewhere, and away from the tropical cyclones, fresh
northeast winds and rough seas in a mix of swell are ongoing
north of 20N and from 07N to 20N west of 125W.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Nineteen-E will move to
14.1N 127.8W this afternoon, 14.5N 125.9W Thu morning, become a
remnant low and move to 14.7N 124.2W Thu afternoon, 14.7N 122.6W
Fri morning, and dissipate Fri afternoon.

$$
ERA