094
AXPZ20 KNHC 271554
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Sep 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm John is near 18.1N 103.0W at 8 AM PDT, and is
moving north-northwest at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50
kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 993
mb. John will move inland to 18.8N 103.8W this evening, weaken
to a remnant low near 19.4N 105.1W Sat morning, 19.9N 106.5W Sat
evening, 20.4N 108.3W Sun morning, and dissipate Sun evening. Seas
are peaking near 14 ft, with 12 ft seas extend as far south as
12N. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted
from 13N to 19N between 97W and 106W.

Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to
coastal portions of southwest Mexico through today. The
additional rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have
received very heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days.
This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and
catastrophic life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides to
the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacn. Swells associated
with John are forecast to continue to affect the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico today, with the potential for
dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local statements for
more information. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest John
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N87W to 14N92W then resumes
from 14N109W to 13N130W and then beyond 10N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 03N to 13N E of 92W and from
09N to 14N between 120W and 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for
information on Tropical Storm John.

Aside from Tropical Storm John, the pressure gradient between
lower pressure over Mexico as well as Tropical Storm John along
and high pressure NW of the area, is supporting moderate to fresh
NW winds over the Baja offshore waters. Seas are 6 to 7 ft in NW
swell over these waters. In the Gulf of California, light
breezes prevail N of 29N with gentle to moderate NW winds over
the remainder of the gulf. Seas of 2 ft or less are over the
northern gulf and seas of 2 to 4 ft S of 28N. Otherwise, over
the Oaxaca and Guerrero offshore waters, winds are fresh to near
gale force from the SW and W and seas are 8 to 14 ft.

For the forecast, John will move inland to 18.8N 103.8W this
evening, weaken to a remnant low near 19.4N 105.1W Sat morning,
19.9N 106.5W Sat evening, 20.4N 108.3W Sun morning, and dissipate
Sun evening. Rough to very rough seas will impact the south and
southwest Mexico offshore waters through Sat. Elsewhere, moderate
to fresh winds will prevail over the Baja California offshore
waters through the weekend, with rough seas subsiding by Sun
night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Westerly swell associated with Tropical Storm John is generating
seas to 8 ft over the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters.
Light to gentle winds are across the Central America offshore
waters with moderate seas. Between the coast of Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to moderate from the S and SE
and seas are moderate to 6 ft.

For the forecast, rough seas across the offshore waters of
Guatemala and El Salvador will subside tonight. Otherwise,
gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail across
the Central and South American offshore waters through the middle
of next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong to near gale force winds, and seas of 8 to 13 ft, are
noted over the periphery of Tropical Storm John, which is over
the SW Mexican offshore waters. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas
of 5-7 ft, are noted south of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle
winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, are over the waters N of the monsoon
trough.

For the forecast, strong to near gale force winds, and rough to
very rough seas, in association with John N of 09N will start to
gradually diminish later today through Sat. Elsewhere, fresh
winds south of the monsoon trough will diminish to moderate
speeds tonight.

$$
Ramos