797
AXPZ20 KNHC 022059
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Apr 2 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2020 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends southwestward from near the Costa Rica-
Panama border at 09N83.5W to 05N90W to 05N106W to 00N119W. The
ITCZ extends from 02.5S118.5W to 02.5S120W, continuing west of
120W and south of the discussion waters. Widely scattered
moderate convection is seen from 03N to 09N between 77W and 81W,
from 02.5S to 05N between 82W and 93W, from 03.4S to 01S between
106.5W and 110W, and from 06.5N to 10N between 105W and 109.5W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from 30N135W to near
the Revillagigedo Islands. This feature is supporting fresh to
locally strong NW to N winds west of Baja California as measured
by recent ASCAT scatterometer data, along with 8 to 11 ft seas.
Moderate with locally fresh NW to N winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft
in moderate NW swell are present near the Revillagigedo Islands.
In the Gulf of California, fresh to strong w winds and seas at 4
to 7 ft dominate the northern Gulf, while moderate to fresh with
locally strong W to NW winds with 3 to 5 ft seas exist across
portions of the north and central Gulf in plumes. Mostly gentle
NW to N, to NE winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft are found off central
and southern Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW to N winds west of
Baja California will linger through tonight, then diminish to
moderate with locally fresh nearshore Thu and Thu night. In the
northern and central Gulf of California, moderate to fresh with
locally strong winds are anticipated through this evening, and
again on Thu night. A similar scenario is also forecast for the
central and southern Gulf of California Sat night and Sun
night. Large NW swell will maintain rough seas west of Baja
California until early Fri, then subside to mainly moderate,
with another set arriving by early next week. Looking ahead, a
surge of fresh to strong northerly gap winds may develop in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun night, which could increase further to
minimal gale-force early next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Localized fresh to strong easterly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are
present at the immediate Gulf of Papagayo, while moderate
northerly winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft are evident near the Azuero
Peninsula. Light to gentle winds along with 4 to 7 ft seas in a
mixed of SW and NW swells prevail for the remainder of the
offshore waters. Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for
convection in the offshore areas.

For the forecast, localized fresh to strong winds will pulse at
times  in the immediate Gulf of Papagayo through Sat night,
mainly during nighttime and early morning hours. Moderate
northerly winds are expected at the Gulf of Panama through Thu
night. A mix of SW and NW swells will keep moderate seas near the
Galapagos Islands and off Ecuador through Thu.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A large dome of high pressure with a ridge extends southeastward
from 30N135W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle to
moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are north of 26N and west of
132W. A tighter gradient between this ridge and the ITCZ,
currently south of the Equator, is generating fresh to locally
strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft seas from 03N to
19N and west of 125W per recent ASCAT data. Elsewhere from 03N to
26N and west of 118W, and north of 15N east of 132W winds are
moderate to locally fresh with 6 to 8 ft seas. Winds are moderate
or weaker with seas of 4 to 7 ft across the remainder of the open
waters.

For the forecast, the ridge will be quasi-stationary while
weakening slightly through this weekend. This should allow winds
to dimish slightly across the trade wind belt. The NW swell will
also steadily decay which allow seas to subside slightly. A new
set of large NW swell will reach 30N140W by Sat afternoon, with
seas up to around 14 ft near 30N140W by early Sun. Seas of 8 ft
or greater will cover the waters west of a line from Punta
Eugenia to 05N127W by Mon evening. Little change is expected
elsewhere through Sun over the open Pacific waters.

$$
Lewitsky