056
AXPZ20 KNHC 171558
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jul 17 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Elida: Tropical Storm Elida is centered near 16.8N
120.8W at 17/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are currently around 20
or 6.0 m. Elida is moving toward the west-northwest. A turn toward
the northwest is expected later today, followed by a north-
northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed by Sunday.
Some strengthening is possible, and Elida could still become a
hurricane within the next day. Weakening is expected to start
over the weekend and continue into early next week. Swells generated
by Elida will affect portions of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula through this weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Elida NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Central and Western East Pacific: A tropical wave with axis along
105W is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected
to form over the weekend while it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central portion of the
eastern Pacific. This system currently has a high chance of
tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and also through
the next 7 days. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, expect
increasing winds and building seas to impact portions of the
waters well offshore southwest Mexico to the Revillagigedo
Islands this weekend into early next week.

Please read the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website - www.hurricanes.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 105W, from 03N to 17N just offshore of the
coast of southwestern Mexico, moving westward at around 10 kt. A
1009 mb low pressure (Invest EP97) is analyzed along the wave
axis near 11N. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
from 12N to 15.5N between 100W and 108W. Similar convective activity
is within 60 nm south of the low center. Please, see the Special
Features section for more information about this tropical wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from low pressure over northern Colombia
at 10N76W to 07N90W to 1009 mb low pressure near 11N105W to 12N114W,
then resumes southwest of Elida from 11N129W to beyond 10N140W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N
E of 90W to the coast of Colombia, from 07N to 13N between 90W
and 99W, from 12N to 15.5N between 100W and 108W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Elida, centered about 715 nautical miles southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California, and on a tropical wave located near
105W with the potential for tropical cyclone formation.

Fresh to strong winds and rough seas of 8 to 11 ft associated
with the periphery of Tropical Storm Elida continue to impact the
waters near Clarion Island, particularly from 17N to 22N between
113W and 116W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and moderate to
locally rough seas are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A weak ridge
dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing light to gentle winds with moderate seas. Light to
gentle winds are also noted in the Gulf of California with slight
seas. Active convection is present in the vicinity of Cabo
Corrientes. Some shower activity is over southern Baja California
associated with an upper-level low.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Elida will move to 17.5N 121.9W
this evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 18.7N 123.2W Sat
morning, 20.4N 124.5W Sat evening, weaken to a tropical storm
near 22.0N 125.6W Sun morning, 24.1N 126.6W Sun evening, and
26.0N 127.3W Mon morning. Elida will become post-tropical as it
moves to near 30.4N 128.8W early Tue. As Elida moves toward the
NW, the ridge over Baja California will weaken leading to mainly
light to gentle winds. However, seas generating by Elida will
propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
today through Sun. Expect building seas of 8 to 10 ft, mainly
across the outer forecast waters. In the Gulf of California,
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail, except for
locally fresh winds in the northern Gulf at times. Fresh to
strong northerly winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec through the next several days, with locally rough
seas at times.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds continue across the Papagayo region
and downwind to near 90W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are
noted elsewhere from 09N to 12N to the west of 86W, and near the
Gulf of Fonseca. Seas are 6 to 9 ft downstream of Papagayo.
Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Panama,
and near the Azuero Peninsula. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas, primarily in S to SW swell, dominate the remainder
of the offshore waters, except slight seas in the immediate lee
of the Galapagos Islands and nearshore western Colombia. Active
convection is present near the monsoon trough across much of the
offshore waters as described above, with locally higher winds
and seas possible.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to
rough seas will persist across the Papagayo region through early
next week, with moderate to fresh NE winds pulsing near the Gulf
of Fonseca. Moderate seas in SW swell are expected elsewhere,
except in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands and
nearshore western Colombia where slight seas are forecast.
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds may pulse in the Gulf of Panama
at night. Moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere into
early next week, possibly freshening south of the monsoon trough
by midweek.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Elida, centered about 715 nautical miles southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California, and on a tropical wave located
near 105W with the potential for tropical cyclone formation.

A ridge dominates most of the waters north of the monsoon trough and
north and west of Elida. The pressure gradient between the ridge
and Elida supports moderate to fresh N to NE winds from 12N to
30N west of 120W along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Winds are mainly
moderate or weaker elsewhere, with 5 to 7 ft in mixed swells.
Very active convection is along the monsoon trough to the east-
southeast of Elida as described above.

For the forecast, as previously mentioned, Tropical Storm Elida
will move to 17.5N 121.9W this evening, strengthen to a hurricane
near 18.7N 123.2W Sat morning, 20.4N 124.5W Sat evening, weaken
to a tropical storm near 22.0N 125.6W Sun morning, 24.1N 126.6W
Sun evening, and 26.0N 127.3W Mon morning. Elida will become
post-tropical as it moves to near 30.4N 128.8W early Tue.

$$
GR