799
AXPZ20 KNHC 140311
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Aug 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0240 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Hernan is centered near 16.8N 132.0W at 14/0300
UTC, moving south at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45
kt. Peak seas are around 13 ft or 4 m. Hernan is a very sheered
tropical cyclone with numerous moderate isolated strong
convection noted between 120 nm and 510 nm in the NE quadrant of
Hernan. Hernan is moving toward the south, and this general
motion is expected to continue with a turn towards the south-
southwest on Fri. A gradual turn to the west is forecast on Sat
with that motion continuing through the weekend. Hernan is
forecast to become a tropical depression on Friday and a post-
tropical cyclone early Sat. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Hernan NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 95.5W north of 01N to the
northwest of the Galapagos Islands, moving slowly west around 5
kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough
section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 1007 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia near 10N74W to 08.5N84W to 07N102W. The ITCZ
extends from 07N102W to 08N130W. Isolated to widely scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is from 05N to 09N
between 77W and 80W, from 03N to 11N between 90W and 102W, from
04N to 14N between 102W and 110W, from 03N to 09N between 110W
and 120W, and from 00N to 09N between 120W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Moderate to locally fresh SW gap winds are
impacting the northern Gulf of California. NW moderate to locally
fresh winds are nearshore of Baja California, mainly the southern
portion. Gentle to moderate winds are found elsewhere. Moderate
seas are over the open waters off Mexico, with slight to moderate
seas over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, pulses of fresh to strong gap winds are
expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early next week,
near gale-force overnight at times, along with occasionally rough
seas. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are forecast off Baja
California through the next several days. A moderate pressure
gradient will promote mostly gentle to moderate winds across the
remainder offshore waters of Mexico along with moderate seas.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh easterly gap winds and moderate seas persist across and
downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to locally fresh NW to
N winds are in the Gulf of Panama, with similar wind speeds but
out of the south near the Gulf of Guayaquil. Gentle to moderate
winds and moderate seas in S to SW swell prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and
occasionally rough seas will pulse across the Papagayo region
through early next week. Moderate to locally fresh northerly
winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Fri night.
Moderate winds may freshen south of the monsoon trough this
weekend. Gentle to moderate winds are forecast elsewhere. Large
southerly swell will start to move into the region starting
tonight and Fri, then again early next week, with rough seas from
offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds
and moderate seas in SW swell are expected elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see Special Features section above for more on Tropical
Storm Hernan.

Broad ridging dominates the waters north of 20N. Outside the
immediate area impacted by Hernan, the pressure gradient between
the ridge, Hernan, and Tropical Storm Lala in the central
Pacific is supporting fresh to locally strong winds, and rough
seas, from 13N to 26N between 128W and 140W. Rough seas in
southerly swell cover the waters south of 06N between 96W and
127W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas prevail
elsewhere, locally fresh south of the Equator and west of 100W.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Hernan will weaken to a tropical
depression near 16.2N 132.1W Fri morning, move to 15.8N 133.1W
Fri evening, become a remnant low and move to 15.4N 134.8W Sat
morning, 15.0N 136.9W Sat evening, 15.0N 139.0W Sun morning, and
dissipate Sun evening when remnant rough seas should also subside.
Elsewhere, southerly swell will maintain rough seas over the
discussion waters south of 05N between 95W and 130W through the
end of the week, then south of 02N between 95W and 125W this
weekend. Another set of southerly swell is forecast to bring
rough seas to the waters south of 06N between 90W and 125W early
next week. Main moderate or weaker winds will prevail elsewhere,
except locally fresh near a passing tropical wave currently near
95.5W, and in the northwest waters where the pressure gradient
will be regionally tight.

$$
Lewitsky