198
AXPZ20 KNHC 310304
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Aug 31 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0240 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western East Pacific (EP93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a 1009 mb low
pressure center located near 14.5N 121.0W is showing signs of
improved organization tonight. However, afternoon satellite
scatterometer wind data did not show a clear or well-defined
center of circulation. Bands of scattered moderate isolated
strong convection are occurring from 12.5N to 17N between 117.5W
to 123W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development of this system, and a tropical depression is
expected to form during the next day or so while moving westward
at around 10 kt across the western part of the eastern Pacific
basin. In anticipation of tropical development, a gale warning
has been issued for this system. The system is likely to cross
into the central Pacific basin during the middle to latter part
of next week. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone
formation within the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook at:
https://www.hurricanes.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac and the latest
National Weather Service High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 92W, from 06N northward
into western Guatemala, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt.
Convection associated with this tropical wave is described below
in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 101W, from 06N northward
to near the coast of south-central Mexico, moving toward the
west near 10 kt. Convection associated with this tropical wave
is described below in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 1201W, from 07N northward
through a 1009 mb low centered near 14.5N121W, EP93, to 19N,
moving toward the west around 5 kt. Please refer to the SPECIAL
FEATURES section for more information on EP93.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N73W to 08N79W to 11.5N102W
to low pressure near 14.5N121W to 11.5N125W to 11N131W. The ITCZ
continues from 11N131W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is occurring from 05N to 11N east of
89W, from 07N to 16.5N between 91W and 109W, from 11N to 17N
between 111W and 123W, and from 07N to 12N between 121W and
140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Scattered moderate to strong thunderstorms are occurring within
180 nm of the coast of southern Mexico from Acapulco to Chiapas,
associated with a pair of tropical waves moving through the area.
Strong gusty and winds and rapidly building seas are occurring
near this activity. Outside of this convection, moderate E to SE
winds prevail across this area, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere,
building high pressure over the eastern Pacific is leading to
moderate NW winds and 4 to 6 ft seas offshore of Baja California.
Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail across the Gulf of
California southward to Cabo Corrientes. Light winds prevail
elsewhere between Cabo Corrientes and Acapulco.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh NW winds will
occur offshore of Baja California through early next week as high
pressure continues to build over the eastern Pacific. Looking
ahead, a tropical wave will move westward offshore of southern
Mexico this weekend, accompanied by fresh to locally strong E
winds and building seas. An area of low pressure could form from
this system early next week, and it is likely to become a
tropical depression by the middle of next week while moving west-
northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15 kt just offshore of
the southwestern coast of Mexico. There is a medium chance of
tropical formation within the next 48 hours, and a high chance
within the next 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate E to SE winds are occurring from the Papagayo region
westward through the waters offshore of El Salvador and
Guatemala, behind a pair of tropical waves. South of the monsoon
trough, along about 10N, moderate SW to W winds prevail, becoming
moderate to fresh S to SW winds south of 04N. SW swell is moving
through the Central and South American waters this weekend,
leading to 5 to 7 ft seas. Recent altimeter data show 7 to 8 ft
seas are occurring south and east of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, SW swell will support rough seas offshore of
Ecuador and Colombia through tonight before seas begin to subside
Sun through Mon. Elsewhere, moderate E to SE winds will occur
across the Papagayo region through the waters offshore of El
Salvador and Guatemala this weekend as tropical waves moves
westward offshore of southern Mexico. Looking ahead, fresh to
locally strong NE to E gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo
region Sun night through the middle of next week. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh S to SW winds are expected south of the monsoon
trough through next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
EP93.

The remnant low of former tropical cyclone Juliette is centered
near 23N124.5W, drifting southwestward at 5 to 10 mph. 1022 mb
high pressure is centered north of the discussion area near
33N137W, and extends a modest ridge south and southeastward
acrossthe regional waters. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and lower pressure along the monsoon trough and ITCZ is
supporting moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and moderate
seas north of 24N between 120W and 130W. Broad ridging extends
through much of the eastern Pacific north of the monsoon trough,
supporting gentle to locally moderate NE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas elsewhere north of 20N, and moderate to locally fresh NE
winds south of 20N. Recent altimeter satellite data and buoy
observations show 6 to 8 ft seas south of 20N. South of the
monsoon trough, SW swell is supporting 8 to 9 ft seas between 90W
and 125W. Moderate to locally fresh S to SE winds prevail over
these waters.

For the forecast, rough seas in S to SW swell south of 10N will
slowly subside into Sun. New S to SW swell will promote rough
seas south of the equator Sun into the middle of next week.
Elsewhere, rough seas may develop north of 05N between 100W and
120W late Sun into next week as a potential tropical depression
develops offshore of southern Mexico by the middle of next week.
Looking ahead, high pressure north of the area will move slowly
northward during the next several days and produce moderate to
fresh NE trade winds south of 22N into mid-week. EP93, currently
located near 14.5N121W is expected to continue moving westward at
around 10 kt during the next several days. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development of this system, and
a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or
so while moving westward across the western part of the eastern
Pacific basin. In anticipation of tropical development, a gale
warning has been issued for this system.

$$
Stripling