034
AXPZ20 KNHC 141556
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Jun 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Dalila is centered near 16.5.9N 104.8W at 1500
UTC, moving northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with
gusts to 60 kt. Seas of 12 ft and greater extend outward to 150
nm to the northeast, and along the Mexican coast, and up to 300
nm across the southeast quadrant. Peak seas are estimated at 22
ft. Bands of numerous moderate to strong convection extend from
the Mexican coast along 19N southward to 13.5N and between 98W
and 109W, or between eastern coastal Guerrero and the coast of
southern Jalisco. A northwest motion at around 10 kt is expected
today through Sun morning, with slight strengthening. A gradual
turn toward the west, and gradual weakening is then expected
Sunday through Mon, with Dalila expected to become a 30 kt post
tropical storm near 18.1N 112W Mon morning. On the forecast
track, the center of Dalila is forecast to move parallel to, but
remain offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Please refer
to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest T.S.
Dalila NHC Forecast Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical waves has entered the eastern portions of the area
overnight and this morning, and is currently analyzed along 87W,
moving westward near 10 kt. A 1012 mb surface low has develop
along the monsoon trough near 10.5N87W, and near the wave axis.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted near the wave,
from 06N to 12N between 84.5W and 92W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N73W to 12N81.5W to low pres
near 10.5N87W 1012 mb to 14N98W, then resumes west of T.S.
Dalila near 13N108W to 09N134W. The ITCZ extends from 09N134W to
beyond 08N140W. Aside from the convection associated with T.S.
Dalila, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
N of 02.5N between 78W and 82.5W, and from 08N to 10N between
117W and 131W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong
convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 84.5W and 100W, and
from 09.5N to 13N between 100W and 115W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Dalila, located a few hundred miles south of
Manzanillo, Mexico.

Broad cyclonic flow associated with Dalila dominates the SW
Mexican offshore waters, from just offshore of Manzanillo to
the waters of central Guerrero. Seas to 12 ft associated with
Dalila have reach the coast across much of this area. Elsewhere,
a broad and weak ridge extends from a 1027 mb high centered well
NW of the area near 40N138W to near 22N118W. This pattern
continues to support gentle to moderate NW winds across the
offshore waters of Baja California where seas are 5 to 7 ft in NW
swell. Light to gentle winds are ongoing in the Gulf of
California with seas less than 3 ft, except in the entrance of
the Gulf where seas are 4 to 5 ft in S swell. Light to gentle
winds are also across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas across these
eastern waters from Oaxaca to Chiapas are 8 to 10 ft in S to SW
swell and waves from Dalila.

For the forecast, T.S. Dalila is expected to continue moving NW
at around 10 kt today through Sun morning, and gradually
strengthen to 55 kt, and will continue to brush the Mexican
coastline. Dalila is expected to reach near 17.9N 108.2W Sun
morning, reach near 18.1N 112W Mon morning as a 30 kt post
tropical remnant low, then continue to weaken and reach near
18.2N 115.5W Tue morning, before continuing westward and
dissipating by Wed morning. Moderate-sized cross-equatorial
southerly swell will mix with seas generated from Dalila to
impact the waters between Tehuantepec and Cabo Corrientes through
Sun. Elsewhere, high pressure well northwest of the area will
support generally moderate to locally fresh N-NW winds across the
Baja California offshore waters through Wed. NW to N swell will
build into the Baja waters Sun through Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A tropical wave moving across Central America along 87W is
described above, and contributing to active weather across much
of the waters of Costa Rica and Nicaragua, likely producing
strong gusty winds and rough seas. Onshore W to SW winds prevail
across most of the area S of 12N. Strong cross-equatorial
southerly swell continues to dominate area waters, with seas of 7
to 9 ft. This swell event has peaked overnight, and seas have
begun to diminish slightly between Ecuador and the Galapagos,
where seas 6 to 8 ft prevail.

For the forecast, large s to SW swell will slowly subside through
early next week. Tropical Storm Dalila located south of
Manzanillo, Mexico will move NW through early Sun then turn more
W-NW and weaken Sun through Tue. SW swell from this system will
continue to impact the waters of El Salvador and Guatemala
today. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain active
across the Central America waters over the weekend and into early
next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Dalila, located a few hundred nautical miles
south of Manzanillo, Mexico.

Broad and weak ridging dominates the waters north of 13N,
centered on a 1027 mb high near 40N138W. This pattern is
supporting mostly moderate N to NE winds north of 10N and west of
120W, with 5 to 7 ft seas in a mix of N and S swell. Southerly
swell of 8 to 10 ft is slowly subsiding between 90W and 115W,
where seas are 7 to 9 ft. Elsewhere moderate to fresh SW winds
persist south of the monsoon trough between 100W and 115W. Seas
are 5 to 7 ft in S swell elsewhere west of 120W.

In the forecast, little change is expected west of 120W except
for increased NW swell north of 28N and east of 130W today
through Wed. Conditions east of 120W and associated with T.S.
Dalila are described in the Special Features section above, and
will be dominated by large SW swell through tonight, and mixed E
to SE swell generated by Dalila. Dalila is forecast to spin down
to a 20 kt remnant low by Wed morning near 18.2N 115.5W.

$$
Stripling