453
AXPZ20 KNHC 160847
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jul 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 02N to 16N, with axis near 103W,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Convection described in the section
below.

A tropical wave extends from 03N to 18N with axis near 113W,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the
vicinity of the wave.

A tropical wave extends from 04N to 19N with axis near 132W,
moving westward around 10 kt. Convection described in the section
below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 10N114W. The ITCZ
continues from 10N114W to beyond 09N140W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical wave along 113W,
scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 12N between 97W and
106W, and from 06N to 15N and W of 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Pulsing fresh to strong SW winds have developed over the northern
portion of the Gulf of California due to the pressure gradient
between a surface trough bordering the E Baja California coast
and high pressure in the surroundings. Slight to moderate seas
prevail along the Gulf. Moderate NE to E winds are ongoing in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec with moderate seas in SW swell.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail along with moderate seas
in SW swell.

For the forecast, pulsing moderate to fresh SW winds over the
northern Gulf of California will prevail through this morning,
then moderate to fresh will prevail through the forecast period.
Pulsing moderate to fresh N gap winds will occur in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec through Thu night as high pressure builds over
central Mexico. Winds will reach fresh to strong speeds on Fri
into the weekend as the pressure gradient tightens further,
resulting in rough seas. Farther south, moderate E winds,
generated by gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo, will occur well
offshore of southern Mexico through midweek, then returning this
weekend. Moderate seas will prevail across the area, except for
slight seas in the Gulf of California.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds prevail in the Gulf of
Papagayo as low pressure prevails near northern Colombia.
Pulsing moderate to fresh N winds have developed over the Gulf
of Panama. Gentle to moderate E winds prevail elsewhere. Slight
to moderate seas prevail across the whole area, with higher seas
with the strongest winds. A SW swell is propagating through the
South American waters, promoting rough seas offshore of Ecuador
and Colombia.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong NE to E winds are
expected in the Gulf of Papagayo through the weekend as high
pressure builds over Mexico and the Gulf of America, building
seas to rough at times. Moderate to fresh N winds will pulse in
the Gulf of Panama through Thu night. The SW swell will continue
to propagate through the South American waters through Thu,
promoting rough seas offshore of Ecuador and Colombia.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1037 mb high pressure well northwest of the discussion waters
near 45N145W extends a ridge across the waters north of the ITCZ
and monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh trades are in the belt
from 10N to 20N west of 110W, and from 09N to 14N east of 105W.
Gentle to moderate trades are elsewhere north of the ITCZ and
monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are south of the
ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 90W, and moderate east of 90W.
Rough seas in advancing southerly swell prevail across the waters
south of 04N. Moderate seas in mixed swell prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate N to NE winds and moderate seas will
continue north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ this week as
ridging prevails over the eastern Pacific. Moderate to fresh
southerly winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough and
ITCZ. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will propagate through the
southern waters promoting rough seas south of 05N, through mid-
week, then decaying through the end of the week. A new N swell
will arrive and lead to rough seas north of 25N by midweek,
decaying by the end of the week.

$$
ERA