935
AXPZ20 KNHC 062233
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Oct 6 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Priscilla is centered near 18.3N 108.0W at 06/2100
UTC, moving north-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with
gusts to 90 kt. A prominent band of convection extends up to 270
nm to the northwest of the center. Moderate convection is also
noted within 120 nm to the southeast of the center. Seas are
probably as high as 30 ft near the center of the hurricane, with
seas 12 ft or greater covering an area roughly from 12N to 20N
between 100W and 110W. Priscilla will continue to intensify over
warm waters as it moves between Socorro Island and Cabo San Lucas
through Tue night, but then will gradually diminish as it moves
over cooler waters off Baja California Sur through mid week,
before eventually becoming a remnant low off Punta Eugenia by
late Fri.

Outer bands from Priscilla will continue to bring heavy
rain to portions of southwestern Mexico today. Across coastal
portions of Michoacn and Colima, additional rainfall amounts of 1
to 2 inches are expected.  From Tuesday into Wednesday, 2-4 inches
(with local amounts up to 6 inches) are expected in southern
portions of Baja California Sur as outer bands of Priscilla reach
that area. This rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding,
especially in areas of higher terrain.  Moisture from Priscilla
should bring heavy rainfall potential over the Southwestern U.S.
late this week into this weekend.

Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico, and will reach
portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula
today.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.

Tropical Storm Octave is centered near 16.1N 121.0W at 06/2100
UTC, moving east at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55
kt. Peak seas are near 18 ft. Modest convection is noted within
90 nm in the northern quadrant of the center. A continued eastward
or east-southeastward motion is forecast for another day or two,
followed by a faster motion to the northeast when Octave becomes
influenced by the flow on Priscilla`s southeast side. A steady
weakening trend is expected to continue through midweek.

Please read the latest NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Octave and Priscilla NHC Forecasts/Advisories and Public
Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 1008 mb low pressure
near 11N91W, then on to 12N96W. Another segment of the monsoon
trough extends from southwest of Octave near 12N125W to 09N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is evident from 12N to 15N between
92W and 96W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Hurricane Priscilla.

An outer rain band associated with Priscilla extends from the
southern Gulf of California to across the southern tip of Baja
California and toward Socorro Island. This is likely brining very
rainfall to the area around Los Cabos. Farther south, dangerous
marine conditions are impacting the waters from Jalisco to
western Guerrero and toward Socorro Island. Farther north, the
pressure gradient between both hurricanes Priscilla and Tropical
Storm Octave, and a broad ridge extending SE to near 120W is
supporting moderate NW winds and moderate seas in NW swell off
Baja California. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are
elsewhere in the Gulf of California. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
a developing low pressure to the east is supporting gentle to
moderate W winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast, Priscilla will move to 19.1N 108.9W Tue
morning, 20.0N 110.2W Tue afternoon, 20.9N 111.5W Wed morning,
22.0N 112.8W Wed afternoon, 23.1N 114.0W Thu morning, and weaken
to a tropical storm near 24.3N 114.8W west of Cabo San Lazaro by
Thu afternoon. Priscilla will weaken further to a remnant low
off Punta Eugenia by late Fri. Farther south, strong winds and
rough seas associated with the remnant low of Octave will impact
the waters south of Socorro Island Wed night into Thu.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to become
better organized off the southern coast of Mexico by midweek.
Gradual development of this system is likely thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form during the latter part of the week
while moving slowly west- northwestward, near or parallel to the
coast of Mexico. This system has a high change of tropical
cyclone formation through 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist across the offshore
waters of northern Central America. Winds and seas could be
higher near thunderstorms. North of the monsoon trough, light to
gentle winds and moderate seas are noted, except moderate S to
SW winds in the Nicaragua offshore waters due to a developing low
pressure. Mainly moderate southerly winds and moderate seas
prevail S of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the weather pattern
across most of the region this week under a weak pressure gradient.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected south of the monsoon
trough while light to gentle winds will prevail to the N of it.
Southerly swell will continue to propagate across the region bringing
moderate seas in the 5 to 7 ft range.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Hurricane Priscilla and Tropical Storm Octave.

Outside of Octave and Priscilla, a surface ridge dominates the
waters north of 20N and west of 120W. Mainly moderate winds and
moderate seas are observed under the influence of this system.

For the forecast, Octave will move to 15.8N 120.2W Tue morning, 15.5N 118.9W Tue
afternoon, 15.4N 117.4W Wed morning, 15.8N 115.2W Wed afternoon,
16.9N 112.7W Thu morning, and dissipate Thu afternoon. Little
change elsewhere.

$$
Christensen