430
AXPZ20 KNHC 292204
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Aug 29 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula (EP93):
A weak area of low pressure located about 800 miles south-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from
14N to 17N between 115W and 119W. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by early next week while moving
west-northwestward or westward at around 10 mph across the
central to western part of the eastern Pacific basin. There is a
medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48
hours, and a high chance within the next 7 days. Regardless of
development, increasing winds and building seas are expected with
this feature. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook
at:
https://www.hurricanes.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 91.5W, from 07N northward
through western Guatemala, moving toward the west around 10 kt.
Convection associated with this tropical wave is described below
in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 117.5W, from 07N northward
through a 1010 mb low centered near 14N117.5W, EP93, to 18N,
moving toward the west around 5 kt. Please refer to the SPECIAL
FEATURES section for more information on EP93.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 08.5N84W to a 1010 mb low
centered near 14N117.5W, EP93, to a 1012 mb low centered near
12N129W, to 11N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is occurring from 05N to 16N between 82W and 112W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Recent scatterometer satellite data show moderate to locally
fresh N to NE winds are occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as
the pressure gradient prevails between high pressure to the
north, lower pressure along the monsoon trough and a tropical
wave moving through Central America. Elsewhere, the remnant low
of former tropical cyclone Juliette, centered near 25.5N122.5W,
is leading to moderate NE winds north of Punta Eugenia and west
of 119W, as noted on scatterometer data. Farther south, moderate
to locally fresh NE winds are noted well offshore of Jalisco,
near a tropical wave analyzed along 117.5W. Moderate NW winds are
occurring offshore of Jalisco through Michoacan as a 1012 mb low
in central Mexico prevails. Otherwise, mainly gentle winds and
slight seas are occurring in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, fresh N to NE gap winds will pulse in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec into Sat morning. Elsewhere, moderate to
occasionally fresh NW winds will occur offshore of Baja
California through early next week as the remnant low of former
tropical cyclone Juliette dissipates and high pressure builds
over the eastern Pacific. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure
associated with a tropical wave south of southern Mexico could
form this weekend or early next week, and environmental
conditions appear conducive for a tropical depression to form by
the middle of next week while moving generally west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph offshore of Mexico. There is a low chance of
tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours, and a medium
chance within the next 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate E to NE gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo
as low pressure prevails over the south-central Caribbean.
Mainly gentle winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere north
of the monsoon trough. To the south, moderate to locally fresh S
to SW winds prevail, as observed via scatterometer data. A SW
swell is moving through the South American waters today,
resulting in 5 to 6 ft seas over the region, with local seas of 7
to 8 ft noted south of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, a long-period SW swell will propagate through
the South American waters this weekend, leading to rough seas
offshore of Ecuador tonight into Sat, and offshore of Colombia
through Panama on Sat. Seas will subside on Sun. Elsewhere,
occasional moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds are expected
in the Gulf of Papagayo through the waters offshore of El
Salvador and Guatemala this weekend into early next week as a
potential tropical cyclone develops offshore of southern Mexico.
Looking ahead, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse early next
week in the Gulf of Papagayo.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
EP93.

The remnant low of former tropical cyclone Juliette is centered
near 25.5N122.5W, and moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are
occurring north and west of the center, as seen on scatterometer
data. Broad ridging extends elsewhere north of the monsoon
trough, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered north of the area
near 34N129W. Mainly gentle winds are occurring north of 20N and
west of 130W, with moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds noted
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Altimeter satellite data
and buoy observations show 4 to 7 ft seas in this region.
Elsewhere, a long-period, mixed SE and SW swell is moving through
the waters south of 10N between 95W and 130W, resulting in 8 to
9 ft seas, as observed on altimeter data. Moderate to locally
fresh SE to SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, a weak area of low pressure located about 800
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by early next week while moving west-northwestward
or westward at around 10 mph across the central to western part
of the eastern Pacific basin. There is a medium chance of
tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours, and a high
chance within the next 7 days. Elsewhere, a long-period mixed SE
and SW swell will lead to rough seas south of 10N through Sat
morning before seas slowly subside thereafter. Rough seas may
develop between 100W and 110W Sun into early next week as a
potential tropical cyclone develops offshore of southern Mexico.

$$
ADAMS