731
AXPZ20 KNHC 032047
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jan 3 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Swell NW Waters: A powerful and complex 988 mb low
pressure system is centered well north of the area near 42N131W.
Storm force winds near the low center continue to support very
large NW swell reaching the area waters as far south as 25N and
as far east as 128W, with seas near 30N134W reaching 15 ft. This
swell will continue to propagate to the southeast this weekend,
reaching waters north of 24N and west of 125W overnight, while
only slowly subsiding. By late Sun, seas will fall below 12 ft.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N89W to 06N101W. The
ITCZ continues from 06N101W to 09N120W to beyond 11N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N east of
85W and from 10N to 21N between 114W and 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between a 1019 mb high west of Baja
California Sur near 24N120W and a surface trough along the
eastern shores of the Gulf of California is leading to fresh NW
winds from the southern Gulf of California to Cabo Corrientes,
westward to waters offshore Cabo San Lucas and in the vicinity of
the Revillagigedo Islands. Elsewhere, gentle breezes and
moderate seas primarily in NW swell prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure centered west of Baja California
Sur will weaken into Sun, allowing moderate to fresh winds south
fo Cabo San Lazaro and from the southern Gulf of California to
offshore Cabo Corrientes to diminish. Long period NW swell will
bring rough seas to the Baja California offshore waters tonight
through Mon. Farther south, expect strong gap winds in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec tonight into Mon, in the wake of a cold front
moving through eastern Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the region is supporting moderate NE to E
gap winds in the Papagayo region. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds
and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will support
pulses of fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Papagayo Sun
night through Tue. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to
moderate seas will persist elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Special Features section above for information on significant
swell north of 24N and west of 125W leading to very rough
combined seas into Sun night.

Moderate to locally fresh winds and large NW swell follow a cold
front reaching from 30N122W to 22N131W. Farther south, fresh E
to SE winds and seas to 8 ft persist south of 10N and west of
135W. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas are
noted elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active
from 10N to 20N between 115W and 135W, in the vicinity of a deep
layer trough.

For the forecast, the cold front will weaken as it continues to
move eastward over the waters north of 23N tonight. A
reinforcing front will follow, but also weaken as it moves
eastward toward 120W by Mon. Looking ahead, a third front will
enter the northern waters Mon and approach 120W through late Tue.
These fronts will disrupt the standard subtropical ridge north
of 20N, maintaining gentle to moderate breezes across the region
through early next week.

$$
Konarik