157
AXPZ20 KNHC 311522
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Aug 31 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Kiko:
Tropical Storm Kiko is centered near 14.4N 123.1W at 31/1500 UTC,
moving west at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Seas are peaking near 10 ft. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is noted from 13N to 17N between 122W and 127W. Kiko
will maintain a general westward motion across the eastern
Pacific and move into the central Pacific basin by late this
week. The system is forecast to intensify, and reach hurricane
intensity Tuesday.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Kiko NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms south of southern Mexico. An area of low
pressure is expected to form from this system within the next day
or two, and it is likely to become a tropical depression by the
middle of this week while moving west-northwestward or
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph just offshore of the southwestern
coast of Mexico. There is a medium chance for tropical formation
in the next 48 hours and a high chance for formation in the next
7 days. Regardless of development, expect an increase in winds
and seas off SW Mexico with this system.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 97W, from 04N northward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Please see SPECIAL FEATURES
section above for more on this tropical wave and the possibility
of tropical cyclogenesis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12N91W to 11N110W to
13N115W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 04N to 07N east of 89W, from 08N to 16.5N between 95W and
105W, and from 08N to 12N between 130W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for information on the
potential of tropical cyclone formation off SW Mexico.

Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong thunderstorms
are occurring within 180 nm of the coast of southern Mexico from
western Guerrero to Chiapas, associated with a tropical wave
moving through the area. Strong gusty and winds and rapidly
building seas are likely occurring near this activity. Outside of
this convection, moderate to fresh E to SE winds prevail across
this area, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, high pressure
located NW of the area extends a ridge southeastward to offshore
of Baja Sur, with a surface trough over the Gulf of California.
The associated pressure gradient is producing moderate NW winds
across the Baja waters north of Punta Eugenia, and gentle winds
between Punta Eugenia and the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are 4
to 6 ft seas in southerly swell across these waters. Light to
gentle winds prevail across the Gulf of California, with seas in
the 1-3 ft range, reaching 4 ft at the entrance of the Gulf.
Light winds prevail elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico.

For the forecast, high pressure will be centered NW of the area
through Tue, with associated ridge across the Baja California
waters. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure
and a trough over the Gulf of California will support moderate NW
to N winds across the Baja waters through early next week. A
tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms south of southern Mexico. An area of low
pressure is expected to form from this system within the next day
or two, and it is likely to become a tropical depression by the
middle of this week while moving west-northwestward or
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph just offshore of the southwestern
coast of Mexico. There is a medium chance for tropical formation
in the next 48 hours and a high chance of formation in the next 7
days. Regardless of development, expect increasing winds and
seas over the waters off SW Mexico through the middle of the
week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate winds are over the Papagayo region, with light to gentle
winds elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. South of the monsoon
trough, moderate winds prevail. SW swell is moving through the
Central and South American waters, with seas in the 5 to 7 ft
range, reaching 8 ft south of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, SW swell offshore of Ecuador and Colombia will
subside through Mon. Moderate gap winds are expected across the
Papagayo region through Mon, then will pulse to fresh speeds at
night through the middle of the week. Light to gentle winds will
prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh
S to SW winds are expected south of the monsoon trough through
the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
newly upgraded Tropical Storm Kiko.

Aside from Kiko, high pressure prevails over the waters N of
20N, anchored by a 1022 mb high centered north of the discussion
area near 36N136W. Outside of Kiko, moderate winds prevail
across the waters N of 10N and W of 120W. Light to gentle winds
are N of 10N and E of 120W. Moderate to fresh winds are found S
of 10N. Seas across the forecast waters are in the 4-7 ft range,
reaching 8 ft S of 10N between 100W and 110W.

For the forecast, recently upgraded Tropical Storm Kiko will
move to 14.5N 124.4W this evening, 14.4N 126.1W Mon morning,
14.3N 127.7W Mon evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 14.2N
129.4W Tue morning, 14.2N 131.2W Tue evening, and 14.1N 133.1W
Wed morning. Kiko will change little in intensity as it moves to
near 14.2N 137.0W early Thu. Elsewhere, S to SW swell over the
waters south of 10N will support rough seas south of 10N between
100W and 120W.

$$
AL